揭示中国PM2.5、O3和CO2协同控制的来源:基于空气污染和气候影响的社会成本。

IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of Environmental Management Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-09 DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123964
Haoyu Wang, Yang Xie, Wenbo Xue, Gang Yan, Yu Lei, Jinnan Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国同时面临着空气污染和气候变化的双重挑战。在此基础上,建立了化学物质迁移模型、健康影响评价模型和人力资本方法相结合的耦合建模框架,量化了30个省份的150个排放源(5个行业)对CO2排放的贡献,以及O3和PM2.5造成的死亡率负担。我们发现,2019年,中国因PM2.5和O3污染导致的过早死亡人数分别为1499,073人和143,420人。空气污染的社会成本约为2320亿美元(PM2.5: 2120亿美元,臭氧:200亿美元),而二氧化碳排放的社会成本为2460亿美元。150个排放源的大气污染社会成本和碳排放具有显著的异质性。我们确定了每个排放源的控制重点和主要控制目标。因此,基于空气污染和气候影响的社会成本,我们提出了一个考虑空间分布和行业类别的协同排放控制政策。该政策旨在协调PM2.5污染、O3污染和CO2排放的控制策略,从而提高缓解措施的综合效益。我们的研究有助于优化排放控制政策,提高相关政策制定的现实性,以协同控制大气污染和碳排放。
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Revealing sources for synergistic control of PM2.5, O3, and CO2 in China: Based on social costs of air pollution and climate impact.

China is concurrently facing the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change. Here, we established a coupled modeling framework that integrated a chemical transport model with a health impact assessment model and the human capital method, to quantify the contributions of 150 emission sources (five sectors in 30 provinces) to the CO2 emissions, and the mortality burdens attributed to O3 and PM2.5. We found that, in 2019, the estimated premature deaths in China attributed to PM2.5 and O3 pollution were 1,499,073 and 143,420, respectively. The social cost of air pollution was approximately 232 billion USD (PM2.5: 212 billion USD, O3: 20 billion USD), comparable to the social cost of CO2 emissions at 246 billion USD. The social costs of air pollution and carbon emissions attributable to the 150 emission sources exhibited significant heterogeneity. We identified the control priorities and primary control targets for each emission source. Consequently, based on the social costs of air pollution and climate impact, we proposed a synergistic emission control policy that accounted for spatial distribution and sectoral categories. This policy aimed to harmonize the control strategies for PM2.5 pollution, O3 pollution, and CO2 emissions, thereby enhancing the comprehensive benefits of mitigation measures. Our study sheds light on optimizing emission control policies, enhancing the realism of relevant policy-making for synergistic control of air pollution and carbon emissions.

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来源期刊
Journal of Environmental Management
Journal of Environmental Management 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
13.70
自引率
5.70%
发文量
2477
审稿时长
84 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Environmental Management is a journal for the publication of peer reviewed, original research for all aspects of management and the managed use of the environment, both natural and man-made.Critical review articles are also welcome; submission of these is strongly encouraged.
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