Rainfall shocks and land conflicts: Evidence from rural Uganda and Kenya

This study examines the impact of negative rainfall shocks on farmland conflicts among smallholder households in Kenya and Uganda. By matching farm-level data with rainfall shocks data constructed from high-resolution precipitation data, the study provides estimates on the incidence of land conflicts. Using fixed effect models, the results indicate that communities in both Kenya and Uganda that have experienced negative rainfall shocks have a land conflict incidence that is at least 4 percentage points higher compared to those that have not experienced such shocks. In both Kenya and Uganda, further analysis reveals that the incidence of land inheritance conflict is at least 1.1 percentage points higher in communities that are prone to negative rainfall shocks compared to those that have not experienced such shocks. Although both countries show significantly lower levels of land conflicts on registered (titled) parcels, land registration does not seem to reduce the incidence of land conflicts in communities that are prone to negative rainfall shocks. Therefore, we recommend implementing measures to manage rainfall variability—such as improved irrigation systems or drought-resistant crops—communities may experience less pressure on resources, thus reducing the likelihood of conflicts arising from land scarcity.