零碳世界:有可能实现全球气候中和吗?

IF 0.9 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Thermal Engineering Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI:10.1134/S0040601524700605
V. V. Klimenko, A. V. Klimenko, A. G. Tereshin, O. B. Mikushina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究了经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)成员国和其他国家的经济发达国家实现碳中和的前景。对这些国家的能源和土地利用结构进行了分析。对研究经济体的碳指标变化动态进行了情景评估,并与全球主要能源机构的预测进行了比较。研究表明,以目前的脱碳速度和碳捕集与封存(CCS)行业的发展速度,这两个集团的国家都不可能在2050-2070年实现气候中和的承诺;这一目标在本世纪末之前不可能实现。实现气候中和的核心挑战是迅速和大规模地实施各种可能的CCS技术。利用一套全球气候系统模式,对所提出的情景进行了全球平均温度(GAT)的计算,并将其结果与其他工作进行了比较。尽管气候变化在全球议程上几乎占据了主导地位,但这一领域努力的实际结果与宣布的相差甚远,现在不可能将升温控制在1.5°C以内。关键任务是尽量缩短全球气候系统处于危险极端区域(高于1.5°C)的时间,这将需要出现负温室气体(GHG)排放的全球经济。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Zero Carbon World: Is It Possible to Achieve Global Climate Neutrality?

The prospects for achieving carbon neutrality in economically developed countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and other countries are examined. An analysis of the energy and land use structure in these countries was carried out. Scenario assessments of the dynamics of changes in carbon indicators of the study economies have been developed, and a comparison has been made with forecasts from leading global energy agencies. It has been shown that, at the current rate of decarbonization and development of the carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry, it is impossible for countries in both groups to fulfill their commitments to achieve climate neutrality in 2050–2070; this goal cannot be achieved before the end of this century. The central challenge in achieving climate neutrality is the rapid and large-scale implementation of CCS technologies in all their possible manifestations. Using a set of global climate system models, calculations of the global average temperature (GAT) were performed for the proposed scenarios, and their results were compared with other works. Despite the fact that climate change occupies almost a leading place on the global agenda, the actual results of efforts in this area are far from those declared, and it is now impossible to cap warming to within 1.5°C. The key task is to minimize the time the global climate system remains in the dangerous extreme zone (above 1.5°C), which will require the emergence of a global economy with negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
20.00%
发文量
94
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