[2020年巴西和巴西地区的总体超额死亡率和COVID-19死亡率]。

IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Cadernos de saude publica Pub Date : 2025-01-13 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1590/0102-311XPT217323
Laylla Ribeiro Macedo, Carolina Borges de Araújo, Luciana Freire de Carvalho, Jackeline Christiane Pinto Lobato, Natália Santana Paiva, Antonio Joseé Leal Costa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在评估2020年巴西各地区按性别和年龄组划分的总体超额死亡率和COVID-19死亡率。开展了一项生态学研究,利用非大流行背景下的预期死亡人数和2020年观察到的死亡人数,按性别和年龄组计算总体超额死亡率。除了巴西地理和统计研究所的人口数据外,死亡数据还从巴西死亡率信息系统中提取。超额死亡率的计算考虑了以下因素:2020年观察到的死亡率与2015年至2019年死亡率平均值之差(按年龄标准化);以及通过准泊松模型观察到的死亡人数与2020年预期死亡人数之间的差异。在巴西,2020年的标准化总死亡率为每10万居民590人死亡,超额死亡率为每10万居民44人死亡,而COVID-19的死亡率为每10万居民79人死亡。总体死亡率最高的是北部和东北部地区。根据2020年全国观察到的死亡人数与预期死亡人数之比估计的超额死亡人数为16%;其中雄性占17%,雌性占16%,0 ~ 59岁占7%,60岁及以上占20%。这些结果有助于更好地了解2019冠状病毒病大流行对2020年巴西死亡率的影响,表明北部、东北部和中西部地区以及60岁以上男性的死亡率过高更为明显。
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[Overall excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality in Brazil and Brazilian regions in 2020].

This study aimed to evaluate the overall excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality in the regions of Brazil, in 2020, by sex and age group. An ecological study was carried out to calculate the overall excess mortality, by sex and age group, using the expected number of deaths in a non-pandemic context and the deaths observed in 2020. Data on deaths were extracted from the Brazilian Mortality Information System, in addition to population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Excess mortality was calculated considering: the difference between the mortality rates observed in 2020 and the average of the rates from 2015 to 2019, standardized by age; and the difference between observed deaths obtained via a quasi-Poisson model and the deaths expected for 2020. In Brazil, the standardized overall mortality rate in 2020 was 590 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, with excess mortality of 44 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, while the mortality rate from COVID-19 was 79 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The highest overall mortality rates were observed in the North and Northeast regions. The excess deaths estimated by the ratio between observed and expected deaths nationwide in 2020 was 16%; of which 17% were males, 16% were females, 7% were individuals from 0 to 59 years old, and 20% were individuals aged 60 years or older. These outcomes enabled a better understanding on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mortality in Brazil in 2020, indicating a more pronounced excess mortality in the North, Northeast and Central-West regions and among men older than 60 years.

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来源期刊
Cadernos de saude publica
Cadernos de saude publica 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
7.10%
发文量
356
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Cadernos de Saúde Pública/Reports in Public Health (CSP) is a monthly journal published by the Sergio Arouca National School of Public Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (ENSP/FIOCRUZ). The journal is devoted to the publication of scientific articles focusing on the production of knowledge in Public Health. CSP also aims to foster critical reflection and debate on current themes related to public policies and factors that impact populations'' living conditions and health care. All articles submitted to CSP are judiciously evaluated by the Editorial Board, composed of the Editors-in-Chief and Associate Editors, respecting the diversity of approaches, objects, and methods of the different disciplines characterizing the field of Public Health. Originality, relevance, and methodological rigor are the principal characteristics considered in the editorial evaluation. The article evaluation system practiced by CSP consists of two stages.
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