Nomograph of cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with endometrial cancer based on SEER database

Objective

This study aims to identify prognostic factors for elderly patients with endometrial cancer and to develop a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in this population.

Methods

Clinicopathological data of elderly patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from the SEER database. Patients were randomly assigned to either a training cohort or a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was then constructed based on these factors, and its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were assessed using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and calibration curve.

Results

Multivariate analysis identified age, marital status, grade, Federation of International of Gynecology and Obstetrics, surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, and tumor size as independent prognostic factors for elderly patients with endometrial carcinoma. Nomograms derived from these factors demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination. The C-indexes were 0.83 for the training set and 0.82 for the validation set. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the training set were 0.88, 0.87, and 0.86 at 1, 3, and 5 year respectively. Corresponding AUC values for the validation set were 0.89, 0.86, and 0.86. Calibration curves for both cohorts demonstrated close alignment with the diagonal, indicating robust agreement between nomogram predictions and actual outcomes.

Conclusion

A novel nomogram has been developed for personalized prognosis assessment in elderly patients with endometrial carcinoma, aiming to enhance tailored treatment strategies and clinical management.