Garen J Wintemute, Andrew Crawford, Elizabeth A Tomsich, Veronica A Pear
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Outcome measures concern justification for the use of violence to advance any of 17 specified political objectives, personal willingness to engage in political violence at 4 levels of severity and against 9 target populations, and expectation of firearm use in political violence. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions. Year-to-year change is based on the means of aggregated individual change scores, which have a potential range from 0 (no change) to ± 2.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The 2024 completion rates were 88.4% (8896 respondents/10,064 invitees) overall, 91.6% (8185 respondents/8932 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2023, and 62.8% (711 respondents/1132 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2022 but not in 2023. After weighting, 50.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5%, 52.3%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (24.9) years. From 2023 to 2024, the prevalence of the view that violence was usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective did not change (2024: 26.2%, 95% CI 25.0%, 27.5%; 2023: 25.3%, 95% CI 24.1%, 26.5%). There were no changes from 2023 to 2024 in willingness to damage property, threaten a person, injure a person, or kill a person in an act of political violence, and no changes in expectations of firearm use in situations where respondents considered political violence justifiable. Changes on other measures were infrequent (17 of 58 comparisons in the main analysis) and small where they occurred (with 2 exceptions, change < 0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Contrary to expectation, support for and willingness to participate in political violence in this cohort showed little to no change from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA. 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This study examines changes in those prevalences from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Wave 3 of the survey was conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; invitations to participate were sent to all respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel. Outcome measures concern justification for the use of violence to advance any of 17 specified political objectives, personal willingness to engage in political violence at 4 levels of severity and against 9 target populations, and expectation of firearm use in political violence. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions. Year-to-year change is based on the means of aggregated individual change scores, which have a potential range from 0 (no change) to ± 2.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The 2024 completion rates were 88.4% (8896 respondents/10,064 invitees) overall, 91.6% (8185 respondents/8932 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2023, and 62.8% (711 respondents/1132 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2022 but not in 2023. After weighting, 50.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5%, 52.3%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (24.9) years. From 2023 to 2024, the prevalence of the view that violence was usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective did not change (2024: 26.2%, 95% CI 25.0%, 27.5%; 2023: 25.3%, 95% CI 24.1%, 26.5%). 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引用次数: 0
摘要
背景：2022年，美国一项具有全国代表性的纵向调查发现，支持和个人意愿参与政治暴力的比例很高，但这些比例在2023年有所下降。这项研究调查了从2023年到2024年美国大选年这些患病率的变化。方法：参与者为益普索知识小组成员。第三波调查于2024年5月23日至6月14日进行；参与邀请被发送给前几波仍留在知识面板中的所有受访者。结果指标涉及使用暴力来推进17个特定政治目标中的任何一个的正当性，个人参与4个严重程度的政治暴力并针对9个目标人群的意愿，以及在政治暴力中使用枪支的预期。结果以加权比例表示。每年的变化是基于汇总的个人变化分数的平均值，其潜在范围从0（没有变化）到±2。结果：2024年总体完成率为88.4%（8896名受访者/ 10064名受邀者），2023年回应的2024年受邀者完成率为91.6%（8185名受访者/8932名受邀者），2022年回应但2023年未回应的2024年受邀者完成率为62.8%（711名受访者/1132名受邀者）。加权后，50.9%（95%可信区间（CI） 49.5%, 52.3%）为女性；加权平均（SD）年龄为48.5（24.9）岁。从2023年到2024年，认为暴力通常或总是有理由推进至少一个政治目标的观点没有改变(2024年：26.2%,95% CI 25.0%, 27.5%；2023年：25.3%,95% ci 24.1%, 26.5%)。从2023年到2024年，在政治暴力行为中破坏财产、威胁他人、伤害他人或杀害他人的意愿没有变化，在受访者认为政治暴力正当的情况下，对枪支使用的预期也没有变化。其他指标的变化很少（主要分析中58个比较中有17个），发生变化的地方也很小（只有2个例外，变化）。结论：与预期相反，该队列中对政治暴力的支持和参与意愿从2023年到2024年（美国选举年）几乎没有变化。这些发现可以帮助指导预防工作。
Trends in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA, 2022-2024: findings from a nationally representative survey.
Background: In 2022, a nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, but those prevalences decreased in 2023. This study examines changes in those prevalences from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA.
Methods: Participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Wave 3 of the survey was conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; invitations to participate were sent to all respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel. Outcome measures concern justification for the use of violence to advance any of 17 specified political objectives, personal willingness to engage in political violence at 4 levels of severity and against 9 target populations, and expectation of firearm use in political violence. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions. Year-to-year change is based on the means of aggregated individual change scores, which have a potential range from 0 (no change) to ± 2.
Results: The 2024 completion rates were 88.4% (8896 respondents/10,064 invitees) overall, 91.6% (8185 respondents/8932 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2023, and 62.8% (711 respondents/1132 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2022 but not in 2023. After weighting, 50.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5%, 52.3%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (24.9) years. From 2023 to 2024, the prevalence of the view that violence was usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective did not change (2024: 26.2%, 95% CI 25.0%, 27.5%; 2023: 25.3%, 95% CI 24.1%, 26.5%). There were no changes from 2023 to 2024 in willingness to damage property, threaten a person, injure a person, or kill a person in an act of political violence, and no changes in expectations of firearm use in situations where respondents considered political violence justifiable. Changes on other measures were infrequent (17 of 58 comparisons in the main analysis) and small where they occurred (with 2 exceptions, change < 0.05).
Conclusions: Contrary to expectation, support for and willingness to participate in political violence in this cohort showed little to no change from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA. These findings can help guide prevention efforts.
期刊介绍：
Injury Epidemiology is dedicated to advancing the scientific foundation for injury prevention and control through timely publication and dissemination of peer-reviewed research. Injury Epidemiology aims to be the premier venue for communicating epidemiologic studies of unintentional and intentional injuries, including, but not limited to, morbidity and mortality from motor vehicle crashes, drug overdose/poisoning, falls, drowning, fires/burns, iatrogenic injury, suicide, homicide, assaults, and abuse. We welcome investigations designed to understand the magnitude, distribution, determinants, causes, prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, and outcomes of injuries in specific population groups, geographic regions, and environmental settings (e.g., home, workplace, transport, recreation, sports, and urban/rural). Injury Epidemiology has a special focus on studies generating objective and practical knowledge that can be translated into interventions to reduce injury morbidity and mortality on a population level. Priority consideration will be given to manuscripts that feature contemporary theories and concepts, innovative methods, and novel techniques as applied to injury surveillance, risk assessment, development and implementation of effective interventions, and program and policy evaluation.
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