Understanding excess mortality during COVID in Belgium: the influence of pre-existing health status and social factors.

Background: This study aims to investigate how pre-existing health status and social background contribute to excess mortality during the COVID-19 crisis in Belgium.

Methods: The study population consists of almost 1.4 million adult members of Solidaris, the second largest health insurance fund in Belgium. Pre-existing health status was identified using health care reimbursement data, including medication use. Social characteristics included a proxy for low socio-economic status, nationality of origin, and living arrangement. Excess mortality during the COVID-19 crisis was measured by computing the relative difference between all-cause mortality in 2020 or 2021 and the average yearly mortality in 2015-2019. Directly Standardised Mortality Rates (DSMRs) were calculated to investigate absolute mortality inequalities. Mortality Rate Ratios (MRRs) were computed using Poisson regression analyses to investigate relative mortality inequalities.

Results: DSMRs show that persons with no previous disease experienced significant excess mortality in 2020, like men with one, two or three diseases and women with various numbers of pre-existing diseases. Results by specific disease show heterogenous results. After adjusting for age, sex and social characteristics, persons with cancer experienced a significant mortality deficit of 17% in 2020 and of 9% in 2021. For persons with cancer and asthma or COPD, significant mortality deficits of 10% and  3% were observed in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Conclusion: The study provides insights into the complex dynamics of mortality during the COVID-19 crisis, emphasising the need to consider individual-level information on pre-existing health and social background jointly.