Stimulant-involved overdose deaths: Constructing dynamic hypotheses

The overdose epidemic in the United States is evolving, with a rise in stimulant (cocaine and/or methamphetamine)-only and opioid and stimulant-involved overdose deaths for reasons that remain unclear. We conducted interviews and group model building workshops in Massachusetts and South Dakota. Building on these data and extant research, we identified six dynamic hypotheses, explaining changes in stimulant-involved overdose trends, visualized using causal loop diagrams. For stimulant- and opioid-involved overdose deaths, three dynamic hypotheses emerged: (1) accidental exposure to fentanyl from stimulants; (2) primary stimulant users increasingly using opioids, often with resignation; (3) primary opioid (especially fentanyl) users increasingly using stimulants to balance the sedating effect of fentanyl. For stimulant-only overdose deaths, three additional dynamic hypotheses emerged: (1) disbelief that death could occur from stimulants alone, and doubt in testing capabilities to detect fentanyl; (2) the stimulant supply has changed, leading to higher unpredictability and thus higher overdose risk; and (3) long-term stimulant use contributing to deteriorating health and increasing overdose risk. These hypotheses likely each explain a portion of the recent trends in stimulant-involved overdoses. However, confusion and uncertainty around the drug supply emerged as a central theme, underscoring the chaotic and unpredictable nature of the stimulant market. Our findings indicate the need for research to develop targeted public health interventions, including analyzing the extent of the effect of contamination on overdoses, reducing confusion about the stimulant supply, and examining historical stimulant use trends.