Importance: Drug overdose (OD) deaths in the United States have risen exponentially for four decades and surged further during the COVID 19 pandemic; the drivers of this surge remain unclear.
Objective: To quantify excess OD mortality during COVID 19, separate its temporal components, and identify social, economic, and drug supply factors-especially Economic Impact Payments (EIPs)-linked to those components.
Design, setting, and participants: Temporal and spatial analysis of all 50 U.S. states using OD deaths (1979-2023) merged with state level data on COVID-19, unemployment, income, mobility, fentanyl seizures, opioid treatment supply, and EIP timing/amounts.
Methods: A log linear model projected the 40-year exponential trend and seasonality to establish a no-COVID baseline. Pandemic era deviations were modeled with Poisson state fixed effects regressions. Five week moving window t-tests flagged synchronous mortality spikes across states, and a two-way fixed effects event study estimated the elasticity of OD deaths to EIP related income shocks. JP Morgan Chase checking balance data validated the income-mortality link.
Results: From March 2020 to May 2023, OD deaths exceeded baseline by 67 571 (24.4 %). Sustained elevation was positively associated with income (β ≈ 0.96), fentanyl seizures, unemployment, and COVID-19 case rates, and inversely with methadone distribution. Three short lived spikes aligned with EIP disbursements, raising daily deaths by up to 85 above trend. A 10 % rise in relative income increased OD mortality 11 %; national checking balance surges and OD deaths were tightly correlated (r ≈ 0.90).
Conclusions and relevance: Pandemic era overdose deaths comprise continuing exponential growth, a COVID-19 related sustained rise tied to social disruption, and EIP linked spikes. Future relief payments should consider staggered disbursement and concurrent harm reduction measures to mitigate overdose risk.
Background: This global systematic review assesses the prevalence of injecting drug use (IDU) and key infectious diseases (HIV, hepatitis C virus [HCV], tuberculosis and hepatitis B virus [HBV]) among people who are incarcerated.
Methods: We conducted a systematic search of peer-reviewed (Medline, Embase, PsycINFO), internet, and grey literature databases, from January 2000 through 2nd June 2025 and engaged international experts and relevant agencies liaising with key agencies focused on incarcerated populations (WHO, UNODC, UNAIDS and EUDA). Data on study methods, size of incarcerated populations and demographic characteristics, and prevalence of IDU, HIV, HCV, HBV and tuberculosis among incarcerated populations were extracted. Meta-analyses pooled data where multiple estimates were available for a country; regional and global estimates were calculated, weighted by incarcerated population size. We present overall country, regional and global prevalence estimates for each variable examined, stratified by sex. We then estimated the ratio of IDU, HIV, HCV, HBV and tuberculosis prevalence among incarcerated populations compared to the general population.
Results: Of 75,755 screened documents, 2,968 were eligible for data extraction. There are approximately 11,322,000 people aged 15-64 years incarcerated globally with their incarceration rate being 221 per 100,000 (29 per 100,000 among females and 404 per 100,000 among males). Substantial variation in rates across countries and regions were observed with the highest regional rate being in North America. Globally, we estimate that 11·9% of people who are incarcerated have ever injected drugs (1,348,000; 95%CI 1,061,500-1,687,000), 51·4 times higher than the general population. We estimate that 3·7% (95%CI 2·5-5·4) of people who are incarcerated globally are living with HIV (25.1· times higher than the general population); 11·7% (95%CI 7·7-17·1) have current HCV infection (15·6 times higher); 4·4% (95%CI 2·4-7·7) have current HBV infection (2·2 times higher) and 2·5% (95%CI 1·5-3·8) have active tuberculosis (45·3 times higher than the general population). There is substantial variation geographically and among females and males.
Conclusion: The substantial concentration of people with multiple risks and comorbidities requires improved strategies to screen, evaluate, treat and prevent these adverse consequences, which is crucial for global control efforts.
Funding: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

