Expert and citizen perceptions of the drivers of the energy transition: A mental model approach

How actors perceive the transition pathways towards sustainable energy production and use will likely influence their support in their everyday behaviour and political engagement towards the energy transition. Mapping actors’ mental models of the drivers of the energy transition can provide key insights into such perceptions. The present study is the first to systematically map mental models of the drivers of the energy transition, compare mental models between actor groups, and explain differences in mental models with political orientation and worry about climate change. We mapped mental models about the energy transition among a sample of experts (N = 25), and representative samples of Dutch (N = 299) and Norwegian (N = 313) citizens. Participants visualised their perceptions of the causal relations of different energy transition pathways by drawing a diagram using a standardised tool to map mental models (M-Tool). The results demonstrate (1) a key focus in the mental models on renewable energy generation such as solar panels, wind farms, and hydropower, (2) that expert mental models are more focused on policy pathways compared to citizen mental models, (3) that mental models of actors leaning towards the political right focus less on individual behaviour than left-leaning actors, and (4) that climate change worry results in more focus on individual behaviour and policy pathways in the mental models. Policymakers could use these insights to engage citizens with the energy transition, for example, by tailoring their messages to the mental models of the target group.