Expert perceptions on CPEC sustainability appraisal: SWOT analysis for informed policy decisions

Globally, the pursuit of sustainable development (SD) is of key importance. Sustainability assessments of large-scale infrastructure development projects play a critical role in balancing economic growth with social, environmental, and climate responsibilities. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a key initiative for regional and global economic advancement. It can also serve as a case study for sustainable development practices. This paper presents results from a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis to explore the sustainability of the CPEC plan 2017–2030. A mixed method approach of SWOT Analysis integrated with multicriteria decision-making methods, including the Best Worst Method- mV Model (a linear programming method) has been applied to analyze, weight, and rank SWOT criteria. A survey of experts was conducted to scale assessment criteria related to CPEC sustainability. Results highlight that with regards to “internal strength criteria”, the geostrategic position is the highest scoring criterion, and with regards to “internal weakness criteria”, increased dependency on China is the lowest scoring criterion. With regards to “internal strength criteria”, the geostrategic position was identified as the highest scoring criterion and cultural friendliness as the lowest scoring criterion. With regards to “internal weakness criteria”, technological inefficiencies were identified as the best, and increased dependency on China as the worst scoring criteria. In the context of “external opportunity’s criteria”, increased job opportunities and regional connectivity were the highest scoring criteria, and mutual trade gain was the lowest scoring criterion. Finally, for “external threats criteria”, natural resource exploitation was identified as the best scoring criterion. The results highlight the need to diversify partnerships within the Belt and Road Initiative in order to enhance environmental friendliness, and climate resilience, as well as to reducedependency risks, and foster equitable development.