The security evaluation of nickel industrial and supply chains based on the NDEA window model

Critical minerals have become the focal point of strategic competition among major nations, and ensuring the security of the industrial and supply chain in critical minerals is an essential prerequisite for maintaining resource security and economic development. This study focuses on nickel ore products, selecting eight major participating countries or regions from 2000 to 2021. Based on a whole industrial chain perspective, a Network Data Envelopment Analysis (NDEA) window model is constructed to reveal the inherent mechanisms of risk transmission in the nickel ore industrial and supply chain. The security levels of nickel industrial and supply chains for each country are evaluated from both a holistic and specific level, and the superiority of the model is compared and demonstrated. The results indicate: (1) The security levels of Australia, China, ASEAN, and New Caledonia are relatively high, demonstrating effective resilience against risks, while the security levels of the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Russia are relatively low. (2) Based on the fluctuation trends of security levels, the United States, Australia, Canada, and Russia exhibit irregular fluctuating declining trends, while other countries or regions show relatively stable trends; (3) Through dual-perspective analysis, it is found that upstream vulnerability is relatively weak for consumption powerhouses like the United States and China, but the security levels in the midstream and downstream are relatively high, resulting in weaker fluctuations in security levels caused by upstream risk transmission. On the other hand, resource-rich countries or regions like ASEAN and New Caledonia have weaker midstream and downstream sectors, making them susceptible to the impact of upstream risk transmission, leading to stronger fluctuations in midstream and downstream security levels; (4) Through comparison, it is confirmed that the NDEA window model, relative to traditional methods, better captures the interconnections of various stages in the industrial and supply chain, highlighting its advantages in improving deviations in security level assessments. The results of this study, combined with real-world situations, provide an important reference value for the development of the whole industrial chain of critical minerals in various countries.