{"title":"老龄化社会：21世纪的经济增长是否会恢复到工业化前的水平？","authors":"Jakob B. Madsen","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106849","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aging population is expected by many to put an end to the high growth rates experienced in the past century. This paper shows that the aging population and the associated educational and innovative expansion induced by the demographic transition will expand the technology frontier in the 21<sup>st</sup> century and significantly override the adverse income effects of the aging population. To achieve this, the total income-effects through the channels of innovations, investment, education, and labor force participation are estimated using data over two centuries for 21 OECD countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 106849"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?\",\"authors\":\"Jakob B. Madsen\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106849\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The aging population is expected by many to put an end to the high growth rates experienced in the past century. This paper shows that the aging population and the associated educational and innovative expansion induced by the demographic transition will expand the technology frontier in the 21<sup>st</sup> century and significantly override the adverse income effects of the aging population. To achieve this, the total income-effects through the channels of innovations, investment, education, and labor force participation are estimated using data over two centuries for 21 OECD countries.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48409,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization\",\"volume\":\"229 \",\"pages\":\"Article 106849\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268124004633\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/12/6 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268124004633","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/12/6 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?
The aging population is expected by many to put an end to the high growth rates experienced in the past century. This paper shows that the aging population and the associated educational and innovative expansion induced by the demographic transition will expand the technology frontier in the 21st century and significantly override the adverse income effects of the aging population. To achieve this, the total income-effects through the channels of innovations, investment, education, and labor force participation are estimated using data over two centuries for 21 OECD countries.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.
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