分析金融市场对巴以冲突的反应:一个事件研究的视角

IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE International Review of Economics & Finance Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-09 DOI:10.1016/j.iref.2025.103864
Muhammad Shahzad Ijaz , Shoaib Ali , Anna Min Du , Mahrukh Khurram
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们使用事件研究方法来研究巴以冲突如何影响股票、金属、能源、法定货币和加密货币。研究结果突出了德国、阿联酋、巴林和科威特股市对地缘政治冲击的敏感性,在事件当天显示出显著的负异常回报。在与交战国有直接经济联系的地区,这种观察更为明显。相反,法定货币和加密货币市场,以及金属和石油,都表现出微不足道的异常回报,除了以太坊和油价的强烈反应。这些发现突出表明,随着巴勒斯坦贸易伙伴以外的市场对战争表现出弹性,不同资产类别的敏感性水平出现波动。总的来说,我们的工作强调了评估传染风险的重要性,特别是在受地缘政治不稳定影响的地区。它还对政策制定者和投资者在政治紧张局势下评估市场风险和投资组合多样化策略时考虑地缘政治局势具有启示意义。
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Analyzing financial market reactions to the Palestine-Israel conflict: An event study perspective
We use event study methodology to examine how the Palestine-Israel Conflict affected equities, metals, energy, fiat, and crypto currencies. The findings highlight the susceptibility of the stock markets in Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait to geopolitical shocks by demonstrating notable negative abnormal returns on the event day. This observation is more evident in areas which have direct economic connections to the belligerent nations. Conversely, the fiat and cryptocurrency markets, along with metals and oil, exhibit insignificant abnormal returns, with the exception of a strong reaction observed in Ethereum and oil prices. These findings highlight the fluctuating levels of sensitivity across diverse asset classes as markets beyond Palestine's trading partners demonstrate resilience to the war. Overall, our work underscores the significance of assessing contagion risk especially in areas affected by geopolitical instability. It also holds implications for policymakers and investors to contemplate the geopolitical situation while evaluating market risks and portfolio diversification strategies amid political tensions.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.30
自引率
2.20%
发文量
253
期刊介绍: The International Review of Economics & Finance (IREF) is a scholarly journal devoted to the publication of high quality theoretical and empirical articles in all areas of international economics, macroeconomics and financial economics. Contributions that facilitate the communications between the real and the financial sectors of the economy are of particular interest.
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