Uncovering the future environmental burdens of medical waste disposal in China and mitigation pathways

The rapid expansion of healthcare facilities plays a critical role in achieving health-related United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3. However, managing the increasing volume of medical waste (MW) presents a major challenge for nations worldwide. This study conducts a comparative life cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impacts and costs of various MW disposal pathways within the context of China. Particular focus is placed on carbon emission intensity, alongside national-level estimations and projections of total emissions. The results reveal that sterilization combined with waste-to-energy (WtE) technology has the lowest environmental impact, averaging 568 (±71) kg CO₂ eq per tonne of MW. In contrast, the landfill and WtE combination yields the highest economic benefit, with profits reaching $155 per tonne when accounting for local government subsidies. Nationally, MW disposal-related carbon emissions in China are projected to peak at approximately 2.50 (±0.13) million tonnes CO₂ eq by 2036. However, with effective management and significant mitigation efforts, these emissions could decrease by up to 78 % compared to the business-as-usual scenario by 2050.