live (a) little: GHG emissions from residential building materials for all 400 counties and cities of Germany until 2050

Germany is trying to solve the housing crisis in many of its cities with new construction. At the same time it is trying to meet its greenhouse gas emissions commitments under the Paris Agreement. This study examines how measures to tackle the housing crisis affect the climate crisis by looking at whether material emissions from the construction sector are in line with Germany’s decarbonization targets. We project material demand and associated emissions from 2024 to 2050 using dynamic material flow analysis of a novel high-resolution building stock model based on synthetic population microdata. The model incorporates technological improvements in building design and material efficiency, finding that these fall short of carbon neutrality targets in 2045 and beyond. A reduction in per capita floor area is required to meet the targets. The high spatial resolution of this study allows the identification of reduction hotspots within Germany’s 400 cities and counties, emphasizing the need for location-specific policy for national goals.