Toward sustainable development: Unfolding the nexus among exports, foreign direct investment, capital formation, natural resource rent, unemployment, and low-carbon transition in Morocco

Morocco faces the challenge of balancing industrial growth with environmental sustainability, as increasing economic activities have led to rising CO₂ emissions. Understanding how key economic factors contribute to mitigating this challenge is essential for achieving sustainable development. Therefore, this study aims to explore the nexus between exports of goods and services, foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, total natural resource rent, unemployment, and low-carbon transition in Morocco, with a focus on their role in sustainable development. We developed a comprehensive framework to investigate the impact of these variables on low-carbon development via novel mathematical models such as grey relational analysis (GRA) and the grey technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). The analysis draws on data covering the period from 2000 to 2022. The results reveal that exports of goods and services play a pivotal role, contributing significantly to CO₂ emissions and serving as a key indicator of industrial growth, followed by foreign direct investments, which have a weight of 0.580. This study offers actionable insights for decision-makers, businesses, governments, and policymakers, encouraging a shift toward green production in manufacturing exports to reduce CO₂ emissions and promote sustainable development in Morocco.