Prediction and Analysis of metabolic mechanism for regional water system from the perspective of quantity-quality collaborative control——A case study of Zhejiang Province, China

Persistent dilemma of water resource is one of the most challenging environmental issues worldwide. The shortage of water quantity fundamentally restricts the sustainable development of the economy and society, and the deterioration of water quality further aggravates the shortage of water quantity. The water metabolic mechanism depicts how material elements interact and operate during the inflow and outflow of water resources and pollutants in regional water system contexts, so exploring it from the perspective of dual control of quantity and quality provides a new view for identifying efficient management pathways. Thus, the objective of this study is to predict and analyze the metabolic mechanism for regional water system from the perspective of quantity-quality collaborative control. In detail, the prediction of water metabolism network in future scenario is established based on the Grey Model-Biproportional Scaling Method (GM-RAS) and the Input-Output Analysis (IOA). Subsequently, the Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) is applied to execute water metabolism analysis under the water quantity-quality joint control perspective. The proposed framework is applied to water system management of Zhejiang Province, China. The regional water metabolism development trends are illustrated, water quantity-quality pollutants (COD, NH_3-N) metabolism mechanisms are analyzed, and key industrial sectors for future scenario water system management are identified. The results indicated that: (a) in order to achieve joint improvement of water resource conservation and environmental conditions, agriculture (AGR), manufacturing (MAN), gas (GAS) and the other sectors (OSE) are identified the key industrial sectors. (b) Under the current economic development model, the water system network will evolve towards improving the whole efficiency. The comprehensive dynamic analysis of quality-quantity collaborative control will provide a scientific support to guide the dilemma of water resources in an attempt to promoting the healthy development of water system.