Modeling the spatial distribution of the tití shrimp (Xyphopenaeus riveti) under climate change scenarios for end of the century in the Colombian Pacific

The tití shrimp (Xyphopanaeus riveti) is a species of great economic importance for artisanal fishermen in the Colombian Pacific. However, the uncertainty about how climate change may affect its distribution hinders decision-making for its management and sustainable use. Therefore, the objective of this research was to evaluate the current and future spatial distribution of X. riveti in the Colombian Pacific under four climate change scenarios. Species distribution models were built with the Random Forests (RF) algorithm and projected to the climate scenarios SSP 2.6, 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for the decades 2080 and 2090. Occurrence data from 2008 to 2019 and nine environmental variables representing its habitat were employed. Seventy-five percent of the data was used to build the model, and 25 % for validation. Layers of seafloor variables for each climate change scenario were generated using the bathymetric projection (BP) method. Results indicate that the most important variables for predicting the distribution of this shrimp were iron, silicate, chlorophyll-a, and bottom hardness. The present distribution is more likely to occur in shallow waters near the coastline. However, for 2080 and 2090, the potential distribution shifts towards deeper waters and away from the coast. This technical information is useful for decision-making in the sustainable management of this important fisheries resource.