一种新的基于混合增益模拟离线EnKF和扩展代理数据库的近两千年再分析方法

IF 8.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-00961-w
Fen Wu, Liang Ning, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Wenqing Hu, Mi Yan, Fangmiao Xing, Lili Lei, Haohao Sun, Kefan Chen, Yanmin Qin, Benyue Li, Chuanxi Xu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文系统地评价了离线集成卡尔曼滤波(OEnKF)和混合增益模拟离线卡尔曼滤波(HGAOEnKF)这两种同化方法在重建近两千年气温和降水方面的性能。结果表明,在三个数据库中,增加代理记录的数量显著提高了两种同化方法的重建技能,其中HGAOEnKF的提高幅度更大。在仪器时代,当针对样本外代理记录和仪器再分析进行验证时,六种重建具有相当的技能(相似的相关系数、ce和rmse)。在前工业时代,在代理记录数量有限的情况下,HGAOEnKF通过改善同化背景场表现出更好的同化性能。与温度重建相比,降水重建的技巧相对较低。在两种同化方法下,来自海洋的替代记录对温度重建的贡献更大。最后,利用扩展后的代理数据库,通过HGAOEnKF生成了一个新的再分析产品NNU-2ka reanalysis。
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A new last two millennium reanalysis based on hybrid gain analog offline EnKF and an expanded proxy database

This paper systemically assesses the performances of two assimilation methods, i.e., the Offline Ensemble Kalman Filter (OEnKF) and the Hybrid Gain Analog Offline EnKF (HGAOEnKF) with three proxy databases, on reconstructing the temperature and precipitation during the last two millennia. The results show that, among three databases, increasing the number of proxy records significantly improves the reconstruction skill for both assimilation methods, with a larger improvement in HGAOEnKF. In the instrumental era, six reconstructions have comparable skill (similar correlation coefficients, CEs, and RMSEs) when validated against out-of-sample proxy records and instrumental reanalyses. During the pre-industrial era, HGAOEnKF shows better assimilation performance by improving the background field of assimilation when the number of proxy records is limited. Compared with the temperature reconstruction, the skill of precipitation reconstruction is relatively lower. The proxy records from the ocean contribute more to the temperature reconstruction skill with both assimilation methods. Finally, a new reanalysis product (NNU-2ka Reanalysis) is generated through the HGAOEnKF with the expanded proxy database.

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来源期刊
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.30%
发文量
87
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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