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IF 3.5 2区农林科学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI:10.1155/tbed/4900775

Kusnul Yuli Maulana, Kannika Na-Lampang, Orapun Arjkumpa, Noppawan Buamithup, Kannikar Intawong, Veerasak Punyapornwithaya

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引用次数: 0

摘要

2021 年，泰国被公认为东南亚爆发块状皮肤病（LSD）最多的国家。了解块皮病疫情在时间和空间上的传播方式可以详细了解该疾病的分布和模式，从而更准确地确定疾病负担较重的地区。本研究旨在通过空间和时空分析，探讨 2021 年间 LSD 在泰国牛群中的传播情况。数据采用空间分析技术进行分析，包括空间自相关性和方向分布。此外，还对数据应用了时空模型，包括时空置换（STP）和泊松模型，并设置了不同的最大报告集群规模（MRCS），以确定 LSD 爆发集群。结果显示，2021 年 3 月至 12 月期间共报告了 642 起 LSD 爆发。出现确诊病例的地区呈现出空间自相关性，表明 LSD 在不同地理区域的传播相互关联。此外，该疾病的分布模式似乎从东北部延伸至南部和西南部地区。根据时空模型，确定了多个地区的 LSD 爆发集群。与泊松模型相比，STP 模型倾向于识别出更多半径较小的簇群。根据模型和 MRCS 设置的不同，检测到的集群数量也不同，这突出表明了选择最相关集群对于有效实施疾病控制策略的重要性。这项研究首次基于国家级数据评估了 LSD 爆发集群的空间方向和时空分布。通过空间和时空分析评估 LSD 的发生情况，可为了解其时空动态提供有价值的信息，从而促进泰国的疾病监测、控制措施和病媒控制策略。

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Geographical Distribution, Spatial Directional Trends, and Spatio-Temporal Clusters of the First Rapid and Widespread Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Thailand

Thailand was recognized as having the highest number of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks in Southeast Asia during 2021. Understanding how LSD outbreaks spread over time and space can provide detailed insight into the distribution and pattern of the disease, allowing for more precise identification of areas with high disease burden. This study aims to explore the spread of LSD among cattle in Thailand during 2021 using spatial and spatio-temporal analyses. Data were analyzed using spatial analysis techniques, including spatial autocorrelation and directional distribution. Additionally, the spatio-temporal models, including space–time permutation (STP) and Poisson with various maximum reported cluster size (MRCS) settings, were applied to the data to determine LSD outbreak clusters. Results showed that a total of 642 LSD outbreaks were reported from March to December 2021. Districts with confirmed cases exhibited spatial autocorrelation, indicating the interconnected spread of LSD across different geographic areas. Furthermore, the disease distribution pattern appeared to extend to the southern and southwestern regions from the northeast. Based on the spatio-temporal models, LSD outbreak clusters were identified in several regions. The STP model tended to identify more clusters with smaller radii compared to the Poisson model. The number of clusters detected varied according to both the model and MRCS setting, underscoring the importance of selecting the most relevant clusters for the effective implementation of disease control strategies. This study was the first of its kind to assess the spatial direction and spatio-temporal distribution of LSD outbreak clusters based on national-level data. Evaluating LSD occurrence through spatial and spatio-temporal analyses can provide valuable insight into its spatio-temporal dynamics, facilitating disease surveillance, control measures, and vector control strategies in Thailand.

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来源期刊

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 农林科学-传染病学

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

9.30%

发文量

350

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： Transboundary and Emerging Diseases brings together in one place the latest research on infectious diseases considered to hold the greatest economic threat to animals and humans worldwide. The journal provides a venue for global research on their diagnosis, prevention and management, and for papers on public health, pathogenesis, epidemiology, statistical modeling, diagnostics, biosecurity issues, genomics, vaccine development and rapid communication of new outbreaks. Papers should include timely research approaches using state-of-the-art technologies. The editors encourage papers adopting a science-based approach on socio-economic and environmental factors influencing the management of the bio-security threat posed by these diseases, including risk analysis and disease spread modeling. Preference will be given to communications focusing on novel science-based approaches to controlling transboundary and emerging diseases. The following topics are generally considered out-of-scope, but decisions are made on a case-by-case basis (for example, studies on cryptic wildlife populations, and those on potential species extinctions): Pathogen discovery: a common pathogen newly recognised in a specific country, or a new pathogen or genetic sequence for which there is little context about — or insights regarding — its emergence or spread. Prevalence estimation surveys and risk factor studies based on survey (rather than longitudinal) methodology, except when such studies are unique. Surveys of knowledge, attitudes and practices are within scope. Diagnostic test development if not accompanied by robust sensitivity and specificity estimation from field studies. Studies focused only on laboratory methods in which relevance to disease emergence and spread is not obvious or can not be inferred (“pure research” type studies). Narrative literature reviews which do not generate new knowledge. Systematic and scoping reviews, and meta-analyses are within scope.