核反应堆场址评估的多目标组合方法:美国案例研究

IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Energy Conversion and Management-X Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-20 DOI:10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.100923
Omer Erdem, Kevin Daley, Gabrielle Hoelzle, Majdi I. Radaideh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着清洁能源需求的增长,以满足可持续性和净零目标,核能成为一个可靠的选择。然而,高昂的资本成本仍然是核电厂(NPP)面临的一个挑战,利用现有的基础设施重新利用燃煤电厂(CPP)是降低这些成本的一种方法。此外,棕地(以前开发或未充分利用的土地,经常受到工业活动的影响)是另一个引人注目的选择。本研究介绍了一种新的多目标优化方法,利用组合搜索来评估美国超过30,000个潜在的核电站站点。我们的方法解决了当前为每个站点属性分配预先确定的权重可能导致排名偏差的实践中的差距。每个网站都被分配了一个基于性能的分数,这个分数来自于对其网站属性的详细组合分析。该方法生成了一个综合数据库,包括站点位置(输入)、属性(输出)、站点得分(输出)以及每个属性对站点得分的贡献。然后,我们使用这个数据库来训练一个神经网络模型,从而能够快速预测美国任何地方的核选址适宜性。我们的研究结果强调,CPP站点在核开发方面具有很强的竞争力,但一些棕地站点能够与它们竞争。值得注意的是,俄亥俄州、北卡罗来纳州和新罕布什尔州的四个CPP基地,以及佛罗里达州和加利福尼亚州的两个布朗菲尔德基地都是最有希望的地点。这些结果强调了整合机器学习和优化技术来改变核选址的潜力,为具有成本效益和可持续能源的未来铺平了道路。
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Multi-objective combinatorial methodology for nuclear reactor site assessment: A case study for the United States
As clean energy demand grows to meet sustainability and net-zero goals, nuclear energy emerges as a reliable option. However, high capital costs remain a challenge for nuclear power plants (NPP), where repurposing coal power plant sites (CPP) with existing infrastructure is one way to reduce these costs. Additionally, Brownfield sites — previously developed or underutilized lands often impacted by industrial activity — present another compelling alternative. This study introduces a novel multi-objective optimization methodology, leveraging combinatorial search to evaluate over 30,000 potential NPP sites in the United States. Our approach addresses gaps in the current practice of assigning pre-determined weights to each site attribute that could lead to bias in the ranking. Each site is assigned a performance-based score, derived from a detailed combinatorial analysis of its site attributes. The methodology generates a comprehensive database comprising site locations (inputs), attributes (outputs), site score (outputs), and the contribution of each attribute to the site score. We then use this database to train a neural network model, enabling rapid predictions of nuclear siting suitability across any location in the United States. Our findings highlight that CPP sites are highly competitive for nuclear development, but some Brownfield sites are able to compete with them. Notably, four CPP sites in Ohio, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, and two Brownfield sites in Florida and California rank among the most promising locations. These results underscore the potential of integrating machine learning and optimization techniques to transform nuclear siting, paving the way for a cost-effective and sustainable energy future.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.20%
发文量
180
审稿时长
58 days
期刊介绍: Energy Conversion and Management: X is the open access extension of the reputable journal Energy Conversion and Management, serving as a platform for interdisciplinary research on a wide array of critical energy subjects. The journal is dedicated to publishing original contributions and in-depth technical review articles that present groundbreaking research on topics spanning energy generation, utilization, conversion, storage, transmission, conservation, management, and sustainability. The scope of Energy Conversion and Management: X encompasses various forms of energy, including mechanical, thermal, nuclear, chemical, electromagnetic, magnetic, and electric energy. It addresses all known energy resources, highlighting both conventional sources like fossil fuels and nuclear power, as well as renewable resources such as solar, biomass, hydro, wind, geothermal, and ocean energy.
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