A theoretical framework for chemical storage tank pool fire domino effect prevention based on inherent safety concepts

This study aims to establish a theoretical framework using inherent safety concepts to prevent pool fire domino effects during the layout planning stage of chemical storage tank farms. Firstly, the probit and point source thermal radiation models are adopted to capture the accident escalation processes. Then, the principles of dynamic heat radiation synergies are proposed by integrating the thermal radiation intensity at different time steps. Subsequently, Bayesian networks are used to determine the accident topology of domino effects and the failure probabilities of target tanks. Lastly, the failure probabilities are weighted and reconciled using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and tank location importance to develop a quantitative risk assessment tool termed Knock-on Risk Index (KRI). The case study demonstrates that the KRI values of alternatives A, B, and C are respectively 2.51E+ 05, 1.95E+ 05, and 2.79E+ 05, implying that alternative B is the inherently safer layout that can be fundamentally resistant to the potential Tank Pool Fire (TPF) domino effects. This work presents a cohesive set of theoretical solutions to preventing the spatial-temporal risks of the TPF domino effects with inherent safety concepts, which can be used to generate a fundamentally safer layout design scheme without adding extensive passive, active, and administrative protections.