{"title":"基于目标的GDP操纵：来自中国的证据","authors":"Binlei Gong , Yuhui Shen , Shuai Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105349","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>GDP manipulation is a prevalent form of hidden action, often arising from the principal-agent problem. Utilizing Bunching Estimation within an innovative ratio form approach, this study identifies and quantifies target-based GDP manipulation. Our empirical analysis offers evidence of such manipulation at the prefectural level in China to meet predetermined targets. However, China’s target-based GDP manipulation is diminishing over time. Furthermore, the findings suggest that reducing the weight of economic performance in local government assessments and adopting the soft target-setting restrictions have served as effective strategies to significantly mitigate China’s GDP manipulation in recent years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 105349"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Target-based GDP manipulation: Evidence from China\",\"authors\":\"Binlei Gong , Yuhui Shen , Shuai Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105349\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>GDP manipulation is a prevalent form of hidden action, often arising from the principal-agent problem. Utilizing Bunching Estimation within an innovative ratio form approach, this study identifies and quantifies target-based GDP manipulation. Our empirical analysis offers evidence of such manipulation at the prefectural level in China to meet predetermined targets. However, China’s target-based GDP manipulation is diminishing over time. Furthermore, the findings suggest that reducing the weight of economic performance in local government assessments and adopting the soft target-setting restrictions have served as effective strategies to significantly mitigate China’s GDP manipulation in recent years.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48436,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Public Economics\",\"volume\":\"244 \",\"pages\":\"Article 105349\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Public Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272725000477\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/3/6 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Public Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272725000477","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/3/6 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Target-based GDP manipulation: Evidence from China
GDP manipulation is a prevalent form of hidden action, often arising from the principal-agent problem. Utilizing Bunching Estimation within an innovative ratio form approach, this study identifies and quantifies target-based GDP manipulation. Our empirical analysis offers evidence of such manipulation at the prefectural level in China to meet predetermined targets. However, China’s target-based GDP manipulation is diminishing over time. Furthermore, the findings suggest that reducing the weight of economic performance in local government assessments and adopting the soft target-setting restrictions have served as effective strategies to significantly mitigate China’s GDP manipulation in recent years.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Public Economics aims to promote original scientific research in the field of public economics, focusing on the utilization of contemporary economic theory and quantitative analysis methodologies. It serves as a platform for the international scholarly community to engage in discussions on public policy matters.
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