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Weather and U.S. railways: risk, adaptation, and congestion 天气与美国铁路:风险、适应和拥堵
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105572
Xinming Du , Andrew J. Wilson
Railway operation is known to be affected by the weather, but the magnitude of these effects has not been estimated at scale. We investigate the effect of weather on U.S. railways using accident and performance data spanning 1997–2022. We find that exposure to temperatures over 86 F (under 5 F) leads to a 9.5% (46%) increase in accidents and a 57% (222%) increase in deaths. Railroads are also adapted to their local climate (with warmer places exhibiting lower sensitivity to heat), learn from prior accidents, and change train speed and throughput in response to weather. Due to the fixed, network nature of railways, we discover that local responses to weather result in a negative externality of propagating delays. Our findings suggest that public funding for rail upgrades may improve both safety and performance.
众所周知,铁路运营会受到天气的影响,但这些影响的程度尚未得到大规模估计。我们使用1997-2022年期间的事故和运行数据调查了天气对美国铁路的影响。我们发现暴露在超过86°F(低于5°F)的温度下会导致事故增加9.5%(46%),死亡人数增加57%(222%)。铁路也适应当地的气候(温暖的地方对热的敏感性较低),从以前的事故中吸取教训,并根据天气变化改变火车的速度和吞吐量。由于铁路的固定网络性质,我们发现当地对天气的响应会导致传播延迟的负外部性。我们的研究结果表明,为铁路升级提供公共资金可能会提高安全性和性能。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond lost earnings: Job displacement and the cost of commuting 除了收入损失,还有失业和通勤成本
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105579
Yige Duan , Oskar Jost , Ramona Jost , Holger Seibert
We examine the impact of involuntary job displacement on workers’ commuting behavior and its implications for the overall welfare cost of job loss. Using geo-referenced employee-employer data from Germany (2000–2017), we track workers’ door-to-door commuting and relocation patterns between home and work. After displacement, workers commute 23.1% (3.38 kilometers) farther to new jobs, and the effect diminishes over time due to job changes rather than home relocation. The simultaneous wage and commuting effects suggest that wage differentials across jobs fail to compensate for commuting costs. An on-the-job search model with heterogeneous firm productivity and commuting distance rationalizes the findings, and structural estimates reveal that an average German worker’s commuting costs equal 20.2 euros per day. Hence, longer commutes exacerbate the total cost of job displacement by one-fifth of the wage losses.
我们研究了非自愿工作取代对工人通勤行为的影响及其对失业总福利成本的影响。利用德国2000年至2017年的地理参考雇员-雇主数据,我们追踪了工人在家和工作单位之间的门到门通勤和搬迁模式。换工作后,工人到新工作的通勤距离增加了23.1%(3.38公里),而且随着时间的推移,这种影响会随着工作的变化而减弱,而不是由于家庭搬迁。同时存在的工资和通勤效应表明,不同职业之间的工资差异并不能补偿通勤成本。一个具有异质企业生产率和通勤距离的在职搜索模型使研究结果合理化,结构性估计显示,德国工人的平均通勤成本等于20.2欧元/天。因此,通勤时间的延长使失业的总成本增加了工资损失的五分之一。
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引用次数: 0
The unequal job security scars of displacement 失业带来的不平等的工作保障伤痕累累
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105562
Ana Figueiredo , Olivier Marie , Agnieszka Markiewicz
Segmented labor markets, where stable jobs coexist with insecure, high-turnover positions, make job security key to workers’ long-term outcomes. Using Dutch administrative data, we study the impact of displacement on job security and the role of cash-on-hand. One year after displacement, permanent employment falls by about one-fifth and remains lower five years later, amplifying wage losses: displaced workers who lose job security experience losses 21 % larger than those retaining a permanent contract. Exploiting a policy granting lump-sum transfers only to some displaced workers, we find that eligibility attenuates job security losses and, as a result, wage losses. Effects are larger among liquidity-constrained workers, consistent with binding liquidity constraints. Our findings highlight job security as a key channel through which cash-on-hand reduces the long-run costs of job loss, with implications for the design of unemployment insurance.
在细分的劳动力市场中,稳定的工作与不稳定、高流动率的职位并存,这使得工作保障成为工人长期成果的关键。利用荷兰的行政数据,我们研究了流离失所对工作保障的影响和手头现金的作用。失业一年后,永久就业人数下降约五分之一,五年后仍保持在较低水平,这加大了工资损失:失去工作保障的失业工人的损失比保留永久合同的工人高出21%。利用一项只向部分失业工人提供一次性转移支付的政策,我们发现,资格减轻了工作保障的损失,从而减轻了工资损失。流动性受限的工人受到的影响更大,这与约束性流动性约束一致。我们的研究结果强调,工作保障是减少失业长期成本的关键渠道,这对失业保险的设计具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Precautionary liquidity and worker decisions: Evidence from French employee saving plans 预防性流动性和工人决策:来自法国雇员储蓄计划的证据
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105575
Marie Briere , James Poterba , Ariane Szafarz
This paper investigates the demand for precautionary liquidity versus commitment contracts among participants in employer-sponsored retirement saving programs in France. All firms in the sample offer medium-term investments; they cannot be accessed for five years. Some also offer long-term (LT) investments, which cannot be accessed until retirement. If a plan offers LT investments, its auto-enrollment default must include them. Workers who experience changes in access to LT investments as a result of job changes are about 6 percentage points less likely to take up the plan default option, and 3 percentage points less likely to participate in the plan at all, when exposed to LT investments. We intepret this as a preference for precautionary liquidity, but two–thirds of active choosers still allocate some contributions, although less than the default, to LT investments, consistent with demand for partial commitment.
本文调查了在法国雇主赞助的退休储蓄计划的参与者之间的预防性流动性与承诺合同的需求。样本中的所有公司都提供中期投资;五年内不能访问。一些公司还提供长期(LT)投资,这些投资要到退休后才能获得。如果一个计划提供LT投资,那么它的自动注册默认值必须包括它们。由于工作变化而在获得长期投资方面经历变化的工人,在接触长期投资时,接受计划默认选项的可能性降低了约6个百分点,参加计划的可能性降低了3个百分点。我们将其解释为对预防性流动性的偏好,但三分之二的积极选择者仍将一些贡献分配给LT投资,尽管低于默认值,这与部分承诺的需求一致。
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引用次数: 0
Bad networks 糟糕的网络
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105574
Robert Akerlof, Richard Holden, DJ Thornton
There is increasing evidence that social media is detrimental to mental health and self-esteem. A puzzle is why, in spite of this, people join these platforms. One possibility is that people feel compelled to participate: they dislike these networks—in particular, the way in which they generate rat races—but they need to be on them to socialize with peers. We refer to networks that harm users as “bad networks.” We model settings with network externalities and show that, surprisingly, bad networks are easy to establish. We also show that networks tend to be both bad and easy to establish when they create rat races—as social networks often do. Amplifying the rat race boosts network size which, while harmful to consumers, may benefit the platform.
越来越多的证据表明,社交媒体对心理健康和自尊有害。令人困惑的是,尽管如此,人们为什么会加入这些平台。一种可能是,人们感到被迫参与:他们不喜欢这些网络——尤其是它们引发激烈竞争的方式——但他们需要利用这些网络与同伴进行社交。我们把伤害用户的网络称为“坏网络”。我们用网络外部性对设置进行建模,并令人惊讶地表明,不良网络很容易建立。我们还表明,当社交网络造成激烈竞争时,它们往往既糟糕又容易建立——社交网络经常如此。激烈的竞争扩大了网络规模,这虽然对消费者有害,但可能对平台有利。
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引用次数: 0
Women’s labor market opportunities and equality in the household 妇女的劳动力市场机会和家庭中的平等
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105557
Erik Grönqvist , Lena Hensvik , Yoko Okuyama , Anna Thoresson
We study how changes in couples’ relative wages affect the division of childcare. Using a nationwide wage reform that raised pay in the female-dominated teaching profession, we find that closing 25% of the earnings gap between female teachers and their male spouses led to a 12% reduction in the childcare time gap. This result holds when we extend the analysis to major pay raises for women at the population level. Data support the mechanism that women reduce their childcare time when the spouse can step in by working more from home. Policies that address female pay can foster household equality, if men have access to flexible work arrangements.
我们研究夫妻相对工资的变化如何影响照顾孩子的分工。通过全国范围内的工资改革,提高了女性占主导地位的教师职业的工资,我们发现,女教师与其男性配偶之间的收入差距缩小了25%,导致育儿时间差距减少了12%。当我们将分析扩展到人口水平上女性的主要加薪时,这个结果成立。数据支持这样一种机制,即当配偶可以通过更多地在家工作来介入时,女性会减少照顾孩子的时间。如果男性能够获得灵活的工作安排,解决女性薪酬问题的政策可以促进家庭平等。
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引用次数: 0
When protection becomes exploitation: The impact of firing costs on Naïve Employees 当保护变成剥削:解雇成本对Naïve员工的影响
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105564
Florian Englmaier , Matthias Fahn , Ulrich Glogowsky , Marco A. Schwarz
This paper identifies a new channel through which employment protection laws can harm workers: they enable employers to exploit naïve present-biased employees. The theoretical mechanism through which firing costs enable exploitation is built upon a widespread career structure. Employers frequently offer career trajectories with an unattractive entry phase (e.g., with low pay or high effort), an even less attractive mid-career stage, and high rewards promised in a final career phase. Naïve employees accept such contracts, expecting to complete the high-reward track. They, however, eventually drop out or sort into alternative paths mid-career when costs loom large and rewards remain distant. As a result, employers avoid paying the promised rewards while capturing surplus from early-career phases. Firing costs give employers more leeway to exploit workers with such contracts: they reduce the employees’ expected risk of dismissal and make long-term rewards appear more credible. Employers can then exploit employees even more—for example, by lowering early-career wages—knowing that employees will still accept such steeper contracts despite not following through. Our model aligns with career patterns in fields such as healthcare, academia, or accounting. It also yields testable predictions on wage structures, attrition, and how firing costs and labor market conditions shape contract design.
本文确定了就业保护法可以伤害工人的一个新渠道:它们使雇主能够剥削naïve对现在有偏见的雇员。解雇成本使剥削成为可能的理论机制是建立在广泛的职业结构之上的。雇主提供的职业轨迹通常是一个没有吸引力的入门阶段(例如,低工资或高努力),一个更没有吸引力的职业中期阶段,以及在职业生涯的最后阶段承诺的高回报。Naïve员工接受这样的合同,期望完成高回报的轨道。然而,他们最终会在职业生涯中期退出或选择其他道路,因为成本越来越高,回报仍然遥不可及。因此,雇主们避免支付承诺的奖励,同时从职业生涯早期阶段获取盈余。解雇成本使雇主有更多的余地利用这类合同剥削工人:它们降低了雇员被解雇的预期风险,并使长期奖励看起来更可信。这样,雇主就可以进一步剥削员工——例如,降低早期职业生涯的工资——因为他们知道,即使员工不遵守合同,他们仍然会接受这种更苛刻的合同。我们的模型与医疗保健、学术界或会计等领域的职业模式一致。它还对工资结构、人员流失率以及解雇成本和劳动力市场条件如何影响合同设计做出了可检验的预测。
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引用次数: 0
Air pollution as comparative disadvantage 空气污染作为相对劣势
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105560
Shi-Ting He , Liugang Sheng , Peng Zhang
This paper is the first to examine the impact of air pollution on exporters’ comparative advantage in the global market and their ensuing strategic responses. Using comprehensive firm-product export data from China spanning 2000 to 2007 and exploiting exogenous variation in air pollution induced by thermal inversions for identification, we estimate a detrimental effect of increased air pollution on exports through its adverse impact on labor productivity. The effects are particularly pronounced for labor-intensive products, prompting firms to restructure their product scope away from labor-intensive varieties. Moreover, larger firms exhibit greater resilience to these adverse effects. The quantitative analysis demonstrates that improving air quality in China would significantly enhance its comparative advantage and aggregate welfare, while also benefiting the rest of the world.
本文首次研究了空气污染对出口商在全球市场上的比较优势的影响以及他们随后的战略反应。利用2000年至2007年中国企业产品出口数据,并利用由热逆温引起的空气污染的外生变化进行识别,我们估计空气污染增加通过对劳动生产率的不利影响对出口产生不利影响。这种影响对劳动密集型产品尤其明显,促使企业调整产品范围,减少劳动密集型品种。此外,大公司对这些不利影响表现出更大的弹性。定量分析表明,改善中国的空气质量将显著提高其比较优势和总福利,同时也使世界其他地区受益。
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引用次数: 0
“Not ready” as a productive wake-up call: Do second chances improve human capital investments? “还没准备好”是一个富有成效的警钟:第二次机会能改善人力资本投资吗?
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105563
Thorbjørn Sejr Guul , Søren Albeck Nielsen
We study a policy reform in Denmark that introduced a GPA threshold for academic readiness for upper secondary education 1.5 years before the end of middle school. Students near the threshold received similar information about their academic performance, but those just below it were labeled “not ready” and offered a second chance through reevaluation the following year. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we find that students just below the threshold improved their final middle school GPA, were more likely to complete high school, and subsequently more likely to enroll in post-secondary education. These effects are driven primarily by increased student effort, evidenced by higher conscientiousness and reduced part-time work, rather than changes in school or parental investment. Importantly, we find no adverse effects on student well-being. The positive effects are especially pronounced among students from low socioeconomic backgrounds and among girls, but we observe beneficial impacts across all subgroups. Our results suggest that entry criteria combined with second-chance opportunities can substantially improve students’ educational trajectories, particularly in the transition to upper secondary education.
我们研究了丹麦的一项政策改革,该政策在中学毕业前1.5年引入了高中教育学业准备的GPA门槛。接近临界值的学生也收到了类似的学业成绩信息,但略低于临界值的学生则被贴上了“还没准备好”的标签,并在第二年通过重新评估获得了第二次机会。使用模糊回归不连续设计,我们发现低于阈值的学生提高了他们的最终中学GPA,更有可能完成高中学业,随后更有可能参加高等教育。这些影响主要是由学生努力的增加所驱动的,这可以从更高的责任心和减少的兼职工作中得到证明,而不是学校或父母投资的变化。重要的是,我们没有发现对学生幸福感的不利影响。积极影响在社会经济背景较低的学生和女孩中尤为明显,但我们在所有亚群体中都观察到有益的影响。我们的研究结果表明,入学标准与第二次机会相结合,可以大大改善学生的教育轨迹,特别是在向高中教育过渡的过程中。
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引用次数: 0
The long run effects of a teacher-focused school reform on student outcomes 以教师为中心的学校改革对学生成绩的长期影响
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105561
Sarah R. Cohodes , Ozkan Eren , Orgul Ozturk
This paper examines the effects of a teacher-focused school reform program — combining performance pay with teacher observation and feedback — implemented in high-need schools on students’ longer-run educational, criminal justice, and economic self-sufficiency outcomes. Using linked administrative data from a Southern state, we leverage the quasi-randomness of the timing of program adoption across schools to show that the school reform improved educational attainment and reduced both felony criminal activity before age 19 and dependence on government assistance in early adulthood (ages 18–22). We find little scope for student sorting or changes in the composition of teacher workforce to explain the findings, and instead find changes in school climate consistent with improved school environments and increased teacher efficiency. Program benefits far exceeded its costs. A comparison with a similar educator-focused reform suggests that the individual incentive component of the program is necessary but not sufficient to improve student outcomes.
本文考察了在高需求学校实施的以教师为中心的学校改革项目——将绩效薪酬与教师观察和反馈相结合——对学生的长期教育、刑事司法和经济自给自足结果的影响。我们利用来自南方一个州的相关行政数据,利用跨学校采用项目时间的准随机性,表明学校改革提高了教育程度,减少了19岁前的重罪犯罪活动,减少了成年早期(18-22岁)对政府援助的依赖。我们发现学生分类或教师队伍组成的变化几乎无法解释这些发现,相反,我们发现学校气候的变化与学校环境的改善和教师效率的提高是一致的。项目收益远远超过成本。与类似的以教育工作者为中心的改革比较表明,该计划的个人激励部分是必要的,但不足以提高学生的成绩。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Public Economics
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