Pub Date : 2024-11-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105249
Samuel Norris , Evan K. Rose
Many jurisdictions levy sizable fines and fees (legal financial obligations, or LFOs) on criminal defendants. Proponents argue LFOs are a “tax on crime” that funds courts and provides deterrence; opponents argue they do neither. We examine the fiscal implications of lowering LFOs. Incentives to default generate a “Laffer” curve with revenue eventually decreasing in LFOs. Using detailed administrative data, however, we find few defendants demonstrably on the right-hand side of the curve. Those who are tend to be poor, Black, and charged with felonies. As a result, decreasing LFOs for the average defendant would come at substantial cost to governments.
{"title":"Laffer’s day in court: The revenue effects of criminal justice fees and fines","authors":"Samuel Norris , Evan K. Rose","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many jurisdictions levy sizable fines and fees (legal financial obligations, or LFOs) on criminal defendants. Proponents argue LFOs are a “tax on crime” that funds courts and provides deterrence; opponents argue they do neither. We examine the fiscal implications of lowering LFOs. Incentives to default generate a “Laffer” curve with revenue eventually decreasing in LFOs. Using detailed administrative data, however, we find few defendants demonstrably on the right-hand side of the curve. Those who are tend to be poor, Black, and charged with felonies. As a result, decreasing LFOs for the average defendant would come at substantial cost to governments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105249"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105259
Johannes Gallé , Daniel Overbeck , Nadine Riedel , Tobias Seidel
This paper quantifies the local economic impact of special economic zones (SEZs) established in India between 2005 and 2013. Using a novel dataset that combines census information on the universe of Indian firms with geo-referenced data on SEZs, we find that the establishment of SEZs increased local manufacturing and service employment, with positive spillovers up to 10 km from the SEZ area. The analysis shows that the gains in manufacturing and service employment were accompanied by a decline in agricultural labor, especially for women, suggesting that the policy contributed to structural change. In further analysis, we document that significant local employment effects occur across different types of SEZs: privately and publicly run zones, and SEZs with different industry designations.
{"title":"Place-based policies, structural change and female labor: Evidence from India’s Special Economic Zones","authors":"Johannes Gallé , Daniel Overbeck , Nadine Riedel , Tobias Seidel","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105259","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper quantifies the local economic impact of special economic zones (SEZs) established in India between 2005 and 2013. Using a novel dataset that combines census information on the universe of Indian firms with geo-referenced data on SEZs, we find that the establishment of SEZs increased local manufacturing and service employment, with positive spillovers up to 10 km from the SEZ area. The analysis shows that the gains in manufacturing and service employment were accompanied by a decline in agricultural labor, especially for women, suggesting that the policy contributed to structural change. In further analysis, we document that significant local employment effects occur across different types of SEZs: privately and publicly run zones, and SEZs with different industry designations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105259"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105260
Stephen B. Billings , Mark Hoekstra , Gabriel Pons Rotger
Research documents a causal impact of place on children’s long-run outcomes. However, little is known about the scale at which neighborhood effects operate, and thus what it is about neighborhoods that matters. By using the quasi-random assignment of public housing along with administrative data from Denmark, we get inside the “black box” of neighborhood effects by defining neighborhoods using various characteristics and scales. Results indicate effects on education and earnings are large but local, while effects on drug possession operate on a broader scale. Additionally, unemployment and education are better predictors of outcomes than neighborhood income.
{"title":"The scale and nature of neighborhood effects on children","authors":"Stephen B. Billings , Mark Hoekstra , Gabriel Pons Rotger","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research documents a causal impact of place on children’s long-run outcomes. However, little is known about the scale at which neighborhood effects operate, and thus what it is about neighborhoods that matters. By using the quasi-random assignment of public housing along with administrative data from Denmark, we get inside the “black box” of neighborhood effects by defining neighborhoods using various characteristics and scales. Results indicate effects on education and earnings are large but local, while effects on drug possession operate on a broader scale. Additionally, unemployment and education are better predictors of outcomes than neighborhood income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105269
Lauren Bauer , Krista Ruffini , Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach
This paper examines how providing families with lump-sum in-kind assistance during the pandemic affected food hardship, economic well-being, and maternal health. We study the introduction of a new program, P-EBT, that provided grocery vouchers worth approximately $300 per student during spring and summer 2020. Using cross-state variation in program timing, we find that families spent $18–42 per student per week in the 6 weeks after benefit receipt. Household food insufficiency and children’s food insecurity among low-income families declined by 27–49 % in the month following receipt, and maternal mental health improved by 0.9 standard deviation.
{"title":"The effects of lump-sum food benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic on spending, hardship, and health","authors":"Lauren Bauer , Krista Ruffini , Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how providing families with lump-sum in-kind assistance during the pandemic affected food hardship, economic well-being, and maternal health. We study the introduction of a new program, P-EBT, that provided grocery vouchers worth approximately $300 per student during spring and summer 2020. Using cross-state variation in program timing, we find that families spent $18–42 per student per week in the 6 weeks after benefit receipt. Household food insufficiency and children’s food insecurity among low-income families declined by 27–49 % in the month following receipt, and maternal mental health improved by 0.9 standard deviation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105269"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105254
Christopher Roth , Peter Schwardmann , Egon Tripodi
While psychotherapy has been shown to be effective in treating depression, take-up remains low. In a sample of 1843 depressed individuals, we document that effectiveness concerns are top of mind when respondents consider the value of therapy. We then show that the average respondent underestimates the effectiveness of therapy. An information treatment correcting this misperception increases participants’ incentivized willingness to pay for a $320 therapy from $166 to $176. Our evidence suggests that while information can influence therapy demand by altering beliefs and shifting attention, it may not significantly increase demand unless substantial subsidies are provided.
{"title":"Misperceived effectiveness and the demand for psychotherapy","authors":"Christopher Roth , Peter Schwardmann , Egon Tripodi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105254","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105254","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While psychotherapy has been shown to be effective in treating depression, take-up remains low. In a sample of 1843 depressed individuals, we document that effectiveness concerns are top of mind when respondents consider the value of therapy. We then show that the average respondent underestimates the effectiveness of therapy. An information treatment correcting this misperception increases participants’ incentivized willingness to pay for a $320 therapy from $166 to $176. Our evidence suggests that while information can influence therapy demand by altering beliefs and shifting attention, it may not significantly increase demand unless substantial subsidies are provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105254"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173
Gabriel Jiménez , David Martinez-Miera , José-Luis Peydró
We analyze the effects of only shifting the statutory incidence of taxes by exploiting: (i) a mortgage tax shift from being levied on borrowers to being levied on banks, without tax rate changes; (ii) some areas –for historical reasons– being tax-exempt (or having different tax rates); and (iii) administrative data. After the shift, the average mortgage rate increases, less for households with more banking opportunities or with higher income. The tax pass-through is nonexistent for high-income households, but complete for low-income households. Consistently, banks’ risk-taking increases, especially by more policy-affected banks. Results are consistent with a model in which all borrowers have tax saliency issues and differ in their bargaining power vis-à-vis the lender. Overall, the evidence is inconsistent with the irrelevance of statutory incidence and suggests unintended consequences on inequality and banks’ risk-taking.
{"title":"Who truly bears (bank) taxes? Evidence from only shifting statutory incidence","authors":"Gabriel Jiménez , David Martinez-Miera , José-Luis Peydró","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the effects of <em>only</em> shifting the statutory incidence of taxes by exploiting: (i) a mortgage tax shift from being levied on borrowers to being levied on banks, <em>without</em> tax rate changes; (ii) some areas –for historical reasons– being tax-exempt (or having different tax rates); and (iii) administrative data. After the shift, the average mortgage rate increases, less for households with more banking opportunities or with higher income. The tax pass-through is nonexistent for high-income households, but complete for low-income households. Consistently, banks’ risk-taking increases, especially by more policy-affected banks. Results are consistent with a model in which all borrowers have tax saliency issues and differ in their bargaining power vis-à-vis the lender. Overall, the evidence is inconsistent with the irrelevance of statutory incidence and suggests unintended consequences on inequality and banks’ risk-taking.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105173"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-08DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105256
Elliott Ash , Sergio Galletta , Matteo Pinna , Christopher S. Warshaw
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the effect of Fox News Channel (FNC) on the mass public’s political preferences and voting behavior in the United States from 2000 to 2020. We show that FNC has shifted the ideology and partisan identity of Americans rightward. This shift has helped Republican candidates in elections across levels of U.S. government over the past decade. Our estimates suggests that an increase of 0.05 rating points in Fox News viewership, induced by exogenous changes in channel placement, has increased Republican vote shares by at least 0.5 percentage points in recent presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections. Our findings have broad implications for political behavior, elections, and the political process in the United States.
{"title":"From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy","authors":"Elliott Ash , Sergio Galletta , Matteo Pinna , Christopher S. Warshaw","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the effect of Fox News Channel (FNC) on the mass public’s political preferences and voting behavior in the United States from 2000 to 2020. We show that FNC has shifted the ideology and partisan identity of Americans rightward. This shift has helped Republican candidates in elections across levels of U.S. government over the past decade. Our estimates suggests that an increase of 0.05 rating points in Fox News viewership, induced by exogenous changes in channel placement, has increased Republican vote shares by at least 0.5 percentage points in recent presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections. Our findings have broad implications for political behavior, elections, and the political process in the United States.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105256"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105257
Paolo Buonanno , Irene Ferrari , Alessandro Saia
We investigate how institutional quality influences social capital by exploiting a policy designed to fight organized crime in Italy: the dismissal of city councils following criminal infiltration into local governments. To measure social capital, we employ a novel, fine-grained indicator based on Italy’s 5 per Mille provision, which allows taxpayers to allocate a portion of their income tax to non-profit organizations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that city council dismissals lead to a significant increase in social capital. We document that the perceived strengthening of law enforcement is the primary mechanism through which city council dismissals enhance social capital.
我们利用意大利一项旨在打击有组织犯罪的政策--在犯罪分子渗入地方政府后罢免市议会--来研究制度质量如何影响社会资本。为了衡量社会资本，我们采用了一种基于意大利 "5 per Mille "条款的新颖、精细的指标，该条款允许纳税人将所得税的一部分分配给非营利组织。利用差分策略，我们发现市议会罢免会导致社会资本显著增加。我们发现，人们认为执法力度的加强是市议会罢免提高社会资本的主要机制。
{"title":"All is not lost: Organized crime and social capital formation","authors":"Paolo Buonanno , Irene Ferrari , Alessandro Saia","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105257","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105257","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate how institutional quality influences social capital by exploiting a policy designed to fight organized crime in Italy: the dismissal of city councils following criminal infiltration into local governments. To measure social capital, we employ a novel, fine-grained indicator based on Italy’s <em>5 per Mille</em> provision, which allows taxpayers to allocate a portion of their income tax to non-profit organizations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that city council dismissals lead to a significant increase in social capital. We document that the perceived strengthening of law enforcement is the primary mechanism through which city council dismissals enhance social capital.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105257"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105252
Christopher Holt , Joshua Linn
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are a precursor to ground-level ozone, a pernicious pollutant that is harmful to human health and ecosystems. Despite decades of regulations and a precipitous decline in NOx emissions, episodic high-ozone events prevent many areas from attaining air quality standards. Theoretically, spatially or temporally differentiated emissions prices could be more cost effective at reducing such events than a uniform price. To test this prediction, with data from EPA and NOAA spanning 2001–2019, we use novel empirical strategies to estimate (1) the link between hourly emissions and high-ozone events and (2) hourly marginal abatement costs. These estimates form the basis for simulations that compare uniform and differentiated emissions pricing. Consistent with economic theory, differentiated pricing is substantially more cost effective at reducing high-ozone events, though this advantage depends on the accuracy of the estimated NOx–ozone relationship. A daytime-only emissions price can achieve the same ozone-event reductions as a uniform emissions price at 42 percent lower cost; an emissions price that varies by power plant and hour of the day can achieve the same reductions at 88 percent lower cost.
{"title":"Targeted regulation for reducing high-ozone events","authors":"Christopher Holt , Joshua Linn","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nitrogen oxides (NO<sub>x</sub>) are a precursor to ground-level ozone, a pernicious pollutant that is harmful to human health and ecosystems. Despite decades of regulations and a precipitous decline in NO<sub>x</sub> emissions, episodic high-ozone events prevent many areas from attaining air quality standards. Theoretically, spatially or temporally differentiated emissions prices could be more cost effective at reducing such events than a uniform price. To test this prediction, with data from EPA and NOAA spanning 2001–2019, we use novel empirical strategies to estimate (1) the link between hourly emissions and high-ozone events and (2) hourly marginal abatement costs. These estimates form the basis for simulations that compare uniform and differentiated emissions pricing. Consistent with economic theory, differentiated pricing is substantially more cost effective at reducing high-ozone events, though this advantage depends on the accuracy of the estimated NO<sub>x</sub>–ozone relationship. A daytime-only emissions price can achieve the same ozone-event reductions as a uniform emissions price at 42 percent lower cost; an emissions price that varies by power plant and hour of the day can achieve the same reductions at 88 percent lower cost.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105252"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105253
Richard Upward , Peter W. Wright
We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years in the UK. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on individuals before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent and long-lasting effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and shorter-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.
{"title":"Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour","authors":"Richard Upward , Peter W. Wright","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years in the UK. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on individuals before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent and long-lasting effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and shorter-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105253"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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