Journal of Public Economics最新文献

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Who truly bears (bank) taxes? Evidence from only shifting statutory incidence 谁真正承担了（银行）税收？仅转移法定发生率的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173

Gabriel Jiménez , David Martinez-Miera , José-Luis Peydró

We analyze the effects of only shifting the statutory incidence of taxes by exploiting: (i) a mortgage tax shift from being levied on borrowers to being levied on banks, without tax rate changes; (ii) some areas –for historical reasons– being tax-exempt (or having different tax rates); and (iii) administrative data. After the shift, the average mortgage rate increases, less for households with more banking opportunities or with higher income. The tax pass-through is nonexistent for high-income households, but complete for low-income households. Consistently, banks’ risk-taking increases, especially by more policy-affected banks. Results are consistent with a model in which all borrowers have tax saliency issues and differ in their bargaining power vis-à-vis the lender. Overall, the evidence is inconsistent with the irrelevance of statutory incidence and suggests unintended consequences on inequality and banks’ risk-taking.

我们分析了只改变法定税率的影响，方法是：(i) 在不改变税率的情况下，将抵押贷款税从向借款人征收改为向银行征收；(ii) 由于历史原因，某些地区免税（或税率不同）；(iii) 利用行政数据。转变后，平均抵押贷款利率上升，但银行业务机会较多或收入较高的家庭上升幅度较小。高收入家庭不存在税收转嫁，而低收入家庭则完全存在税收转嫁。同样，银行的风险承担增加，尤其是受政策影响较大的银行。结果与所有借款人都存在税务突出问题且与贷款人的讨价还价能力不同的模型一致。总体而言，这些证据与法定发生率无关的观点不一致，并表明了对不平等和银行风险承担的意外后果。

引用次数: 0

From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy 从观众到选民：追溯福克斯新闻对美国民主的影响

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105256

Elliott Ash , Sergio Galletta , Matteo Pinna , Christopher S. Warshaw

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the effect of Fox News Channel (FNC) on the mass public’s political preferences and voting behavior in the United States from 2000 to 2020. We show that FNC has shifted the ideology and partisan identity of Americans rightward. This shift has helped Republican candidates in elections across levels of U.S. government over the past decade. Our estimates suggests that an increase of 0.05 rating points in Fox News viewership, induced by exogenous changes in channel placement, has increased Republican vote shares by at least 0.5 percentage points in recent presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections. Our findings have broad implications for political behavior, elections, and the political process in the United States.

本文全面评估了 2000 年至 2020 年福克斯新闻频道（FNC）对美国大众政治偏好和投票行为的影响。我们表明，FNC 使美国人的意识形态和党派认同向右转移。在过去十年中，这种转变有助于共和党候选人在美国各级政府选举中胜出。我们的估计结果表明，在最近的总统、参议院、众议院和州长选举中，福克斯新闻收视率每增加 0.05 个收视点，共和党的得票率就会增加至少 0.5 个百分点。我们的研究结果对美国的政治行为、选举和政治进程具有广泛的影响。

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All is not lost: Organized crime and social capital formation 一切并没有失去：有组织犯罪与社会资本的形成

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105257

Paolo Buonanno , Irene Ferrari , Alessandro Saia

We investigate how institutional quality influences social capital by exploiting a policy designed to fight organized crime in Italy: the dismissal of city councils following criminal infiltration into local governments. To measure social capital, we employ a novel, fine-grained indicator based on Italy’s 5 per Mille provision, which allows taxpayers to allocate a portion of their income tax to non-profit organizations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that city council dismissals lead to a significant increase in social capital. We document that the perceived strengthening of law enforcement is the primary mechanism through which city council dismissals enhance social capital.

我们利用意大利一项旨在打击有组织犯罪的政策--在犯罪分子渗入地方政府后罢免市议会--来研究制度质量如何影响社会资本。为了衡量社会资本，我们采用了一种基于意大利 "5 per Mille "条款的新颖、精细的指标，该条款允许纳税人将所得税的一部分分配给非营利组织。利用差分策略，我们发现市议会罢免会导致社会资本显著增加。我们发现，人们认为执法力度的加强是市议会罢免提高社会资本的主要机制。

引用次数: 0

Targeted regulation for reducing high-ozone events 减少高臭氧事件的针对性监管

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105252

Christopher Holt , Joshua Linn

Nitrogen oxides (NO_x) are a precursor to ground-level ozone, a pernicious pollutant that is harmful to human health and ecosystems. Despite decades of regulations and a precipitous decline in NO_x emissions, episodic high-ozone events prevent many areas from attaining air quality standards. Theoretically, spatially or temporally differentiated emissions prices could be more cost effective at reducing such events than a uniform price. To test this prediction, with data from EPA and NOAA spanning 2001–2019, we use novel empirical strategies to estimate (1) the link between hourly emissions and high-ozone events and (2) hourly marginal abatement costs. These estimates form the basis for simulations that compare uniform and differentiated emissions pricing. Consistent with economic theory, differentiated pricing is substantially more cost effective at reducing high-ozone events, though this advantage depends on the accuracy of the estimated NO_x–ozone relationship. A daytime-only emissions price can achieve the same ozone-event reductions as a uniform emissions price at 42 percent lower cost; an emissions price that varies by power plant and hour of the day can achieve the same reductions at 88 percent lower cost.

氮氧化物（NOx）是地面臭氧的前体，是一种对人类健康和生态系统有害的有毒污染物。尽管制定了数十年的法规，氮氧化物排放量也急剧下降，但偶发的高臭氧事件仍使许多地区无法达到空气质量标准。从理论上讲，与统一价格相比，按空间或时间区分的排放价格在减少此类事件方面更具成本效益。为了验证这一预测，我们利用美国环保署和国家海洋和大气管理局 2001-2019 年的数据，采用新颖的经验策略来估算：（1）每小时排放量与高臭氧事件之间的联系；（2）每小时边际减排成本。这些估算为比较统一排放定价和差别排放定价的模拟奠定了基础。与经济理论相一致，差别定价在减少高臭氧事件方面的成本效益要高得多，尽管这种优势取决于氮氧化物与臭氧关系估计的准确性。与统一排放价格相比，仅在一天内制定排放价格可实现相同的臭氧事件减排量，但成本要低 42%；按发电厂和一天中的不同时段制定排放价格可实现相同的减排量，但成本要低 88%。

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引用次数: 0

Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour 收入冲击、政治支持和投票行为

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105253

Richard Upward , Peter W. Wright

We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years in the UK. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on individuals before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent and long-lasting effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and shorter-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.

我们就英国过去 25 年中经济冲击对政治支持、投票行为和政治观点的影响提供了新的证据。我们利用失业这一突发性、巨大且持续时间长的冲击，追踪其对个人政治结果的影响，时间跨度长达事件发生后的 10 年。由于掌握了失业事件前后个人的详细信息，我们可以对比较组进行重新加权，使其在可观察到的特征、原有政治支持和投票行为方面与失业者接近。我们发现，失业事件对在任政党的支持率和选票产生了持续且长久的影响，而对政治参与度的影响则持续时间较短。我们发现对边缘党派或民粹主义党派的支持影响有限。在英国脱欧的背景下，失业者中反对欧盟的比例要高得多，但这在很大程度上是由于之前存在的差异造成的，而失业事件本身并没有加剧这种差异。

引用次数: 0

The value of electricity reliability: Evidence from battery adoption 电力可靠性的价值：采用电池的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105216

David P. Brown , Lucija Muehlenbachs

To avoid electric-infrastructure-induced wildfires, millions of Californians had their power cut for hours to days at a time. We show that rooftop solar-plus-battery-storage systems increased in zip codes with the longest power outages. Rooftop solar panels alone will not help a household avert outages, but a solar-plus-battery-storage system will. Using this fact, we obtain a revealed-preference estimate of the willingness to pay for electricity reliability, the Value of Lost Load, a key parameter for electricity market design. Our estimate, with an average of $4,980/MWh, suggests California’s wildfire-prevention outages resulted in losses from foregone consumption of $406 million to residential electricity consumers.

为避免因电力基础设施引发野火，数百万加州人被断电数小时至数天不等。我们的研究表明，在停电时间最长的邮政编码中，屋顶太阳能加电池存储系统的数量有所增加。单靠屋顶太阳能电池板无法帮助家庭避免停电，但太阳能加蓄电池系统却可以。利用这一事实，我们获得了电力可靠性支付意愿的显性偏好估计值，即电力市场设计的关键参数--损失负荷值。我们估算的平均值为 4,980 美元/兆瓦时，这表明加州因预防野火而造成的停电给居民电力消费者带来了 4.06 亿美元的损失。

引用次数: 0

Personal norms — and not only social norms — shape economic behavior 影响经济行为的不仅是社会规范，还有个人规范

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105255

Zvonimir Bašić , Eugenio Verrina

We propose a simple utility framework and design a novel two-part experiment to study the relevance of personal norms across various economic games and settings. We show that personal norms — together with social norms and monetary payoff — are highly predictive of individuals’ behavior. Moreover, they are: (i) distinct from social norms across a series of economic contexts; (ii) robust to an exogenous increase in the salience of social norms; and (iii) complementary to social norms in predicting behavior. Our findings support personal norms as a key driver of economic behavior.

我们提出了一个简单的效用框架，并设计了一个新颖的两部分实验来研究个人准则在各种经济游戏和环境中的相关性。我们的研究表明，个人准则与社会准则和货币报酬一起，对个人行为具有很强的预测性。此外，它们还(i) 在一系列经济环境中与社会规范截然不同；(ii) 对社会规范显著性的外生增加具有稳健性；(iii) 在预测行为方面与社会规范相辅相成。我们的研究结果支持个人准则成为经济行为的关键驱动因素。

引用次数: 0

Myths of official measurement: Limits to test-based education reforms with weak governance 官方测量的神话：治理薄弱的应试教育改革的局限性

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105246

Abhijeet Singh , Petter Berg

Assessment-led school reforms are a central pillar of policy packages recommended to address low student achievement in developing countries. We use direct audit evidence to assess the truthfulness of official assessments in a reform that has tested over 6 million students annually since 2011 in the large Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. Comparing responses to the same test questions by the same students shows a doubling of reported achievement in administrative data versus independent tests. This difference is lower, within schools, in grades with multiple test booklets and external grading. Overall, in contexts with weak governance, interventions relying on test-based accountability appear unlikely to succeed without complementary investments to assure data integrity.

以评估为主导的学校改革是发展中国家为解决学生成绩低下问题而推荐的一揽子政策的核心支柱。自 2011 年以来，印度中央邦每年对 600 多万名学生进行测试，我们利用直接审计证据来评估官方评估改革的真实性。比较相同学生对相同测试问题的回答，结果显示，行政数据与独立测试相比，报告的成绩翻了一番。在学校内部，这种差异在有多种测试卷和外部评分的年级较小。总之，在治理薄弱的情况下，如果没有确保数据完整性的辅助投资，依靠考试问责的干预措施似乎不太可能取得成功。

引用次数: 0

Do second chances pay off? Evidence from a natural experiment with low-achieving students 第二次机会有回报吗？来自成绩差学生自然实验的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105214

Aspasia Bizopoulou , Rigissa Megalokonomou , Ştefania Simion

In several countries, students who fail high-stakes exams at the end of high school are faced with the choice of retaking or forgoing postsecondary education. We explore exogenous variation generated by a policy that imposed a performance threshold for admission into postsecondary education in Greece to estimate the effect of retaking exams on the exam performance and various measures of the quality of received offers. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and novel administrative data, we find that low-achieving students who retake national exams improve their performance by around 0.6 standard deviation. We also find that they obtain higher quality postsecondary offers, thanks to improved performance and more ambitious re-application choices.

在一些国家，高中毕业时未能通过高考的学生面临着重考或放弃中学后教育的选择。我们探讨了希腊对中学后教育录取设置成绩门槛的政策所产生的外生变化，以估计重考对考试成绩的影响以及对录取质量的各种衡量标准。利用模糊回归不连续设计和新颖的行政数据，我们发现重考国家考试的低成绩学生的成绩提高了约 0.6 个标准差。我们还发现，由于成绩的提高和更大胆的重新申请选择，他们获得了更高质量的中学后录取通知书。

引用次数: 0

Effect of a transfer shock on subnational debt: Micro evidence from Mexico 转移冲击对国家以下各级债务的影响：墨西哥的微观证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105251

Mariela Dal Borgo

This paper examines how a shock to the distribution of federal transfers to Mexican municipalities affects their demand for long-term loans aimed at funding productive investments. Transfers are municipalities’ main source of debt payment and collateral. Using granular supervisory data, I find a positive effect on municipalities’ loan volume, normalized by the country’s total municipal loans, driven by obligations with private lenders. However, I find little or no average effect on take-up — despite many governments being unbanked —, repayment, or volume at the intensive margin. Governments with lower payment capacity and other preexisting debt are more sensitive to the shock. In particular, those with short-term debt are more likely to start borrowing from private lenders, while those with bonds turn to the development bank. The additional revenue mostly funds current rather than capital expenditures. These findings highlight that the policy goal of deepening subnational credit markets in developing countries must also address weaknesses in local investment capacities.

本文探讨了对墨西哥各市联邦转移支付分配的冲击如何影响其对旨在为生产性投资提供资金的长期贷款的需求。转移支付是市政当局偿债和抵押的主要来源。通过使用细粒度的监管数据，我发现对市政当局的贷款额有积极影响（按全国市政当局贷款总额归一化计算），这是由与私人贷款人的债务驱动的。然而，我发现，尽管许多政府没有银行账户，但在密集边际上，对接受贷款、还款或贷款额的平均影响很小或没有影响。支付能力较低和存在其他债务的政府对冲击更为敏感。尤其是那些有短期债务的政府更有可能开始向私人贷款机构借款，而那些有债券的政府则转向开发银行。额外收入主要用于经常性支出，而不是资本支出。这些发现突出表明，发展中国家深化国家以下一级信贷市场的政策目标还必须解决地方投资能力薄弱的问题。

引用次数: 0

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