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When protection becomes exploitation: The impact of firing costs on Naïve Employees 当保护变成剥削:解雇成本对Naïve员工的影响
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105564
Florian Englmaier , Matthias Fahn , Ulrich Glogowsky , Marco A. Schwarz
This paper identifies a new channel through which employment protection laws can harm workers: they enable employers to exploit naïve present-biased employees. The theoretical mechanism through which firing costs enable exploitation is built upon a widespread career structure. Employers frequently offer career trajectories with an unattractive entry phase (e.g., with low pay or high effort), an even less attractive mid-career stage, and high rewards promised in a final career phase. Naïve employees accept such contracts, expecting to complete the high-reward track. They, however, eventually drop out or sort into alternative paths mid-career when costs loom large and rewards remain distant. As a result, employers avoid paying the promised rewards while capturing surplus from early-career phases. Firing costs give employers more leeway to exploit workers with such contracts: they reduce the employees’ expected risk of dismissal and make long-term rewards appear more credible. Employers can then exploit employees even more—for example, by lowering early-career wages—knowing that employees will still accept such steeper contracts despite not following through. Our model aligns with career patterns in fields such as healthcare, academia, or accounting. It also yields testable predictions on wage structures, attrition, and how firing costs and labor market conditions shape contract design.
本文确定了就业保护法可以伤害工人的一个新渠道:它们使雇主能够剥削naïve对现在有偏见的雇员。解雇成本使剥削成为可能的理论机制是建立在广泛的职业结构之上的。雇主提供的职业轨迹通常是一个没有吸引力的入门阶段(例如,低工资或高努力),一个更没有吸引力的职业中期阶段,以及在职业生涯的最后阶段承诺的高回报。Naïve员工接受这样的合同,期望完成高回报的轨道。然而,他们最终会在职业生涯中期退出或选择其他道路,因为成本越来越高,回报仍然遥不可及。因此,雇主们避免支付承诺的奖励,同时从职业生涯早期阶段获取盈余。解雇成本使雇主有更多的余地利用这类合同剥削工人:它们降低了雇员被解雇的预期风险,并使长期奖励看起来更可信。这样,雇主就可以进一步剥削员工——例如,降低早期职业生涯的工资——因为他们知道,即使员工不遵守合同,他们仍然会接受这种更苛刻的合同。我们的模型与医疗保健、学术界或会计等领域的职业模式一致。它还对工资结构、人员流失率以及解雇成本和劳动力市场条件如何影响合同设计做出了可检验的预测。
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引用次数: 0
Air pollution as comparative disadvantage 空气污染作为相对劣势
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105560
Shi-Ting He , Liugang Sheng , Peng Zhang
This paper is the first to examine the impact of air pollution on exporters’ comparative advantage in the global market and their ensuing strategic responses. Using comprehensive firm-product export data from China spanning 2000 to 2007 and exploiting exogenous variation in air pollution induced by thermal inversions for identification, we estimate a detrimental effect of increased air pollution on exports through its adverse impact on labor productivity. The effects are particularly pronounced for labor-intensive products, prompting firms to restructure their product scope away from labor-intensive varieties. Moreover, larger firms exhibit greater resilience to these adverse effects. The quantitative analysis demonstrates that improving air quality in China would significantly enhance its comparative advantage and aggregate welfare, while also benefiting the rest of the world.
本文首次研究了空气污染对出口商在全球市场上的比较优势的影响以及他们随后的战略反应。利用2000年至2007年中国企业产品出口数据,并利用由热逆温引起的空气污染的外生变化进行识别,我们估计空气污染增加通过对劳动生产率的不利影响对出口产生不利影响。这种影响对劳动密集型产品尤其明显,促使企业调整产品范围,减少劳动密集型品种。此外,大公司对这些不利影响表现出更大的弹性。定量分析表明,改善中国的空气质量将显著提高其比较优势和总福利,同时也使世界其他地区受益。
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引用次数: 0
“Not ready” as a productive wake-up call: Do second chances improve human capital investments? “还没准备好”是一个富有成效的警钟:第二次机会能改善人力资本投资吗?
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105563
Thorbjørn Sejr Guul , Søren Albeck Nielsen
We study a policy reform in Denmark that introduced a GPA threshold for academic readiness for upper secondary education 1.5 years before the end of middle school. Students near the threshold received similar information about their academic performance, but those just below it were labeled “not ready” and offered a second chance through reevaluation the following year. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we find that students just below the threshold improved their final middle school GPA, were more likely to complete high school, and subsequently more likely to enroll in post-secondary education. These effects are driven primarily by increased student effort, evidenced by higher conscientiousness and reduced part-time work, rather than changes in school or parental investment. Importantly, we find no adverse effects on student well-being. The positive effects are especially pronounced among students from low socioeconomic backgrounds and among girls, but we observe beneficial impacts across all subgroups. Our results suggest that entry criteria combined with second-chance opportunities can substantially improve students’ educational trajectories, particularly in the transition to upper secondary education.
我们研究了丹麦的一项政策改革,该政策在中学毕业前1.5年引入了高中教育学业准备的GPA门槛。接近临界值的学生也收到了类似的学业成绩信息,但略低于临界值的学生则被贴上了“还没准备好”的标签,并在第二年通过重新评估获得了第二次机会。使用模糊回归不连续设计,我们发现低于阈值的学生提高了他们的最终中学GPA,更有可能完成高中学业,随后更有可能参加高等教育。这些影响主要是由学生努力的增加所驱动的,这可以从更高的责任心和减少的兼职工作中得到证明,而不是学校或父母投资的变化。重要的是,我们没有发现对学生幸福感的不利影响。积极影响在社会经济背景较低的学生和女孩中尤为明显,但我们在所有亚群体中都观察到有益的影响。我们的研究结果表明,入学标准与第二次机会相结合,可以大大改善学生的教育轨迹,特别是在向高中教育过渡的过程中。
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引用次数: 0
The long run effects of a teacher-focused school reform on student outcomes 以教师为中心的学校改革对学生成绩的长期影响
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105561
Sarah R. Cohodes , Ozkan Eren , Orgul Ozturk
This paper examines the effects of a teacher-focused school reform program — combining performance pay with teacher observation and feedback — implemented in high-need schools on students’ longer-run educational, criminal justice, and economic self-sufficiency outcomes. Using linked administrative data from a Southern state, we leverage the quasi-randomness of the timing of program adoption across schools to show that the school reform improved educational attainment and reduced both felony criminal activity before age 19 and dependence on government assistance in early adulthood (ages 18–22). We find little scope for student sorting or changes in the composition of teacher workforce to explain the findings, and instead find changes in school climate consistent with improved school environments and increased teacher efficiency. Program benefits far exceeded its costs. A comparison with a similar educator-focused reform suggests that the individual incentive component of the program is necessary but not sufficient to improve student outcomes.
本文考察了在高需求学校实施的以教师为中心的学校改革项目——将绩效薪酬与教师观察和反馈相结合——对学生的长期教育、刑事司法和经济自给自足结果的影响。我们利用来自南方一个州的相关行政数据,利用跨学校采用项目时间的准随机性,表明学校改革提高了教育程度,减少了19岁前的重罪犯罪活动,减少了成年早期(18-22岁)对政府援助的依赖。我们发现学生分类或教师队伍组成的变化几乎无法解释这些发现,相反,我们发现学校气候的变化与学校环境的改善和教师效率的提高是一致的。项目收益远远超过成本。与类似的以教育工作者为中心的改革比较表明,该计划的个人激励部分是必要的,但不足以提高学生的成绩。
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引用次数: 0
A tale of gold and blood: The consequences of market deregulation on local violence 金与血的故事:解除市场管制对地方暴力的影响
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105559
Leila Pereira , Rafael Pucci
We investigate how deregulating and disabling a decentralized structure for monitoring gold transactions in Brazil ultimately led to an increase in violence related to illegal gold mining. We use a Difference-in-Differences design and a unique database that combines the location of gold deposits and protected areas, where mining is forbidden. We demonstrate that municipalities more exposed to illegal gold mining experienced almost ten additional homicides per 100,000 people - roughly 30 % more - after the deregulation. We also find suggestive evidence of more gold-mining land use inside protected areas in exposed municipalities, which serves as an indicator of illegal mining.
我们调查了巴西监管黄金交易的去中心化结构是如何解除管制并使其失效的,最终导致了与非法金矿开采相关的暴力事件的增加。我们采用了差异中的差异设计和独特的数据库,该数据库结合了金矿的位置和禁止采矿的保护区。我们证明,在放松管制之后,更容易受到非法金矿开采影响的城市,每10万人中发生的凶杀案几乎增加了10起——大约增加了30%。我们还发现,在暴露的城市的保护区内,有更多的金矿土地被使用,这是非法采矿的一个指标。
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引用次数: 0
The consequences of wildfire liability for firm precaution: Evidence from power shutoffs in California 野火责任对预防措施的影响:来自加州停电的证据
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105552
Christopher Malloy
This paper examines firm responses to the entire distribution of potential liability by studying power line-ignited fires in California’s electric utility sector. In this setting, when a power line-ignited fire damages a structure, the owner of the power line assumes the cost. The unique setting allows me to estimate how firm precautions vary across the entire distribution of liabilities they face. Using exogenous variation in firms’ expected liabilities from potential fire ignitions across days, I show that, on average, firms are 0.03 percentage points more likely to take costly precautionary actions as the level of expected liability that they face increases by 10 % (mean of 0.6 %). Applying a back of the envelope calculation suggests that, at its mean distribution circuit, the most responsive firm increases precautionary investments by $10 per dollar increase in its expected liability. Furthermore, I show that firms’ precautionary responses weaken as the likelihood of bankruptcy from expected liability increases. Applying the estimates to a stylized model implies that limiting firms’ exposure to liability across their service territory would create aggregate social welfare benefits between $27 million and $270 million.
本文通过研究加州电力公用事业部门的电力线引燃火灾,考察了公司对潜在责任的整个分配的反应。在这种情况下,当电线引起的火灾损坏建筑物时,电线的所有者承担费用。这种独特的环境使我能够估计在他们面临的整个责任分布中,坚定的预防措施是如何变化的。我利用公司因潜在火灾引发的预期负债在几天内的外生变化表明,平均而言,当公司面临的预期负债水平增加10%(平均为0.6%)时,公司采取代价高昂的预防措施的可能性增加0.03个百分点。应用粗略计算表明,在其平均分配电路中,反应最灵敏的公司每增加1美元的预期负债,预防性投资就会增加10美元。此外,我还表明,随着预期负债导致破产的可能性增加,企业的预防性反应会减弱。将这些估计应用于一个程式化的模型意味着,限制公司在其服务区域内承担的责任将创造2700万至2.7亿美元的社会福利总额。
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引用次数: 0
Social influence and carbon dioxide mitigation 社会影响和二氧化碳减排
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105558
Jayant Vivek Ganguli, Friederike Mengel
We investigate the potential of social influence to increase people’s willingness to mitigate their carbon impact. In a large-scale online experiment consisting of two waves of data collection participants are given the choice to spend any share of a 10 GBP endowment on mitigation. If a wave-1 participant is told that their (anonymized) choice will be observed by a wave-2 participant before that participant makes their choice, then the wave-1 participant’s willingness to mitigate (WTM) increases by about 17%. This is not the case if their choice is observed by the wave-2 participant after that participant has already made their choice, which demonstrates that it is indeed the possibility of influence and not only observability that matters. Increasing influence at the extensive margin, i.e. increasing the number of wave-2 participants observing the choice, does not increase WTM. We also elicit beliefs and find that most participants overestimate how much influence they have.
我们调查了社会影响的潜力,以增加人们的意愿,以减轻他们的碳影响。在一项由两波数据收集组成的大规模在线实验中,参与者可以选择将10英镑捐赠中的任何一部分用于缓解。如果第一波参与者在第二波参与者做出选择之前被告知他们的(匿名的)选择将被第二波参与者观察,那么第一波参与者的缓和意愿(WTM)将增加约17%。如果他们的选择是在波2参与者已经做出选择之后才被观察到,情况就不是这样了,这表明影响的可能性确实是重要的,而不仅仅是可观察性。扩大影响范围,即增加观察选择的波2参与者的数量,不会增加WTM。我们还引出了信念,发现大多数参与者高估了他们的影响力。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the welfare cost of labor supply frictions 劳动力供给摩擦的福利成本估算
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105556
Katy Bergstrom, William Dodds, Nicholas Lacoste, Juan Rios
This paper quantifies how much people would be willing to pay to remove frictions that impede them from working their ideal number of hours using two sufficient statistics: (1) the percentage difference between ideal (i.e., frictionless) hours and actual hours, and (2) the Hicksian elasticity of ideal hours with respect to the after-tax wage rate. We implement this method to construct estimates of the willingness-to-pay to remove frictions in the United States and Germany. There are three core findings: (1) the cost of adjustment frictions (an omnibus measure encompassing, for example, fixed costs of adjustment, discrete choice sets, and search costs) is large for any reasonable value of the Hicksian ideal hours elasticity, even when accounting for multiple labor supply decisions, endogenous wages, and dynamic decisions; (2) the cumulative cost of adjustment frictions and tax misperceptions is even larger: individuals in the U.S. (Germany) would be willing to pay at least 7 % (4 %) of their income on average to remove these two frictions in hours worked; and (3) adjustment frictions appear to be much more costly than tax misperceptions.
本文使用两个充分的统计数据量化了人们愿意支付多少钱来消除阻碍他们实现理想工作时间的摩擦:(1)理想(即无摩擦)工作时间与实际工作时间之间的百分比差,以及(2)理想工作时间相对于税后工资率的希克斯弹性。我们在美国和德国实施了这种方法来构建支付意愿的估计,以消除摩擦。有三个核心发现:(1)调整摩擦的成本(包括固定调整成本、离散选择集和搜索成本的综合衡量)对于希克斯理想时间弹性的任何合理值都是很大的,即使在考虑多种劳动力供给决策、内生工资和动态决策时也是如此;(2)调整摩擦和税收误解的累积成本甚至更大:美国(德国)的个人愿意支付平均收入的至少7%(4%)来消除这两种摩擦(以工作时间计算);(3)调整摩擦的代价似乎比税收误解要高得多。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal income tax deductions for mixed business and personal expenditures 企业和个人混合支出的最优所得税扣除
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105544
Jacob Goldin , Sebastian Koehne , Nicholas Lawson
We study the optimal taxation of expenditures that generate income while also serving a consumption function. We characterize the Pareto optimal income tax deduction for such mixed-purpose expenditures within a generalized Atkinson–Stiglitz model. Pareto optimality requires a partial deduction for mixed-purpose expenditures, where the deduction rate depends on the fraction of an expenditure’s marginal benefits that are attributable to income-generation rather than consumption. We extend our results to account for several practical considerations, including potential constraints related to a uniform deduction rate or a fixed income tax schedule.
我们研究了既产生收入又具有消费功能的支出的最优税收。我们在广义阿特金森-斯蒂格利茨模型中描述了这种混合用途支出的帕累托最优所得税扣除。帕累托最优要求对混合用途支出进行部分扣除,其中扣除率取决于支出边际收益中可归因于创收而非消费的部分。我们将结果扩展到考虑几个实际因素,包括与统一扣除率或固定所得税时间表相关的潜在约束。
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引用次数: 0
Protectionism, evasion and household welfare evidence from Nigeria’s import bans 来自尼日利亚进口禁令的保护主义、逃税和家庭福利证据
IF 3.4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105543
Erhan Artuc , Guillermo Falcone , Guido Porto , Bob Rijkers
This paper analyzes the welfare impacts of import bans in Nigeria and how these impacts are shaped by evasion. Bans were not effectively enforced, thus fostering informal trade. The imposition of bans nonetheless increased consumer prices by 9.9 percent on average. However, price increases were substantially attenuated for goods for which trade policy is harder to enforce. Import bans disproportionately hurt richer households, who likewise disproportionately benefit from evasion.
本文分析了尼日利亚进口禁令对福利的影响,以及这些影响是如何被逃避所塑造的。禁令没有得到有效执行,从而助长了非正式贸易。然而,禁令的实施使消费者价格平均上涨了9.9%。然而,对于贸易政策难以执行的商品,价格涨幅明显减弱。进口禁令对富裕家庭的伤害尤为严重,而富裕家庭同样也从逃税中受益匪浅。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Public Economics
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