Measuring the premium effect of marine ecological restoration on housing prices: A quasi-experimental design based on real estate transaction data

Marine ecological restoration, as a pivotal component of constructing marine ecological civilization, provides a quantifiable insight into the premium effect it exerts on the surrounding real estate market. This holds substantial reference significance for optimizing the spatial allocation of marine ecological resources and enhancing the well-being of coastal residents. Leveraging marine ecological restoration projects conducted in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2015 and aligning them with second-hand housing transaction data from Qingdao, Yantai, and Weihai in Shandong Province spanning from January 2008 to October 2021, this study employs machine learning techniques and Difference-in-Differences methodology to delve into the impact of marine ecological restoration on surrounding housing prices. The empirical findings unveil a significant real estate premium effect triggered by marine ecological restoration initiatives. Post-project completion, there is a notable upsurge in housing prices within a 3-kilometer radius of the restoration sites. The efficacy of ecological restoration in influencing housing prices is attributed to its ability to enhance water quality in the vicinity of the project sites, with this effect exhibiting spatial decay characteristics. Moreover, noteworthy disparities are observed in the real estate premium effects of marine ecological restoration projects based on varying funding scales and restoration types. To capitalize on these findings, it is recommended to integrate marine ecological restoration into long-term urban development planning initiatives, actively advocate for nature-based restoration solutions, fully harness the scale effects of restoration projects, and steer towards achieving socio-economic green development objectives.