生育,不育和代更替。

Clinical reproduction and fertility Pub Date : 1986-02-01
W D Borrie
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在人类历史的大部分时间里,“自然生育”和35岁左右的预期寿命保持了人口数量的合理平衡;但是达到75岁或以上的预期寿命破坏了这个“自然”系统。随着西方人寿命的延长,只有通过越来越有效的生育控制才能防止人口爆炸式增长。今天,这些检查在澳大利亚和许多其他西方国家是如此普遍和有效,以至于“内在”生育率水平低于世代更替水平。在这场人口革命中,生育能力的变化并不是一个重要因素;至少有10-12%的夫妇没有生育问题,但这种变化的主要原因是二孩家庭的演变,这一过程现在只占夫妇婚后生活的六分之一。现在大多数夫妇在剩下的岁月里都是自愿不生育的。非自愿不育的矫正对个体夫妇来说是重要的,但在代际更替方面意义不大。
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Fertility, infertility and generation replacement.

Throughout most of human history 'natural fertility' and life expectations of about 35 years kept population numbers reasonably balanced; but the achievement of life expectations of 75 or more years destroyed this 'natural' system. As longevity increased amongst Western peoples, explosive growth rates were only prevented by increasingly efficient checks on fertility. Today, these checks are so universal and so efficient in Australia and in many other Western countries that 'intrinsic' levels of fertility are below generation replacement level. Changes in fecundity were not a significant factor in this demographic revolution; at least 10-12% of couples remain without issue, but the prime cause of the change is the evolution of the two-child family, a process which now involves only about a sixth of a couple's fecund married life. For the rest of their years most couples are now voluntarily infertile. Correction of involuntary sterility is important to individual couples but has little significance in terms of generation replacement.

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