[贝叶斯统计原理及其与应用药代动力学的关系]。

Paulo Cáceres Guido, Carlos Humberto Pavan, Esteban Otamendi, Guillermo Federico Bramuglia
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引用次数: 1

摘要

如果一个人知道一个事件在一个群体中发生的概率,贝叶斯统计就不允许在有新的个体信息可用时修改它的值。虽然贝叶斯方法和频率论(经典)方法的应用领域相同,但前者越来越多地应用于科学研究和大数据分析。在现代药物治疗中,由于技术分析和数学统计的发展,临床药代动力学已被用于扩大监测。群体药代动力学可以识别和量化特定患者群体的病理生理和治疗特征,特别是在儿科和新生儿群体以及其他弱势群体中,解释个体间的差异。同样,当药物监测是基于临床药代动力学解释时,贝叶斯估计作为一种统计工具应用于药物治疗优化软件是很重要的。基于贝叶斯估计的药物治疗优化方法有其优点,也有其局限性,越来越多地得到应用,成为当今的参考方法。这一特点对常规临床实践特别方便,因为需要从患者身上采集的样本数量有限,而且它在药物定量的血液采样次数方面显示出灵活性。因此,贝叶斯原理在临床药物代谢动力学实践中的应用,促进了药物治疗护理的改善。
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[Principles of Bayesian statistics and its relationship with applied pharmacokinetics].

If one knows the probability of an event occurring in a population, Bayesian statistics allows mo difying its value when there is new individual information available. Although the Bayesian and frequentist (classical) methodologies have identical fields of application, the first one is increasin gly applied in scientific research and big data analysis. In modern pharmacotherapy, clinical phar macokinetics has been used for the expansion of monitoring, facilitated by technical-analytical and mathematical-statistical developments. Population pharmacokinetics has allowed the identification and quantification of pathophysiological and treatment characteristics in a specific patient popu lation, especially in the pediatric and neonatal population and other vulnerable groups, explaining interindividual variability. Likewise, Bayesian estimation is important as a statistical tool applied in pharmacotherapy optimization software when pharmacological monitoring is based on clinical phar macokinetic interpretation. With its advantages and despite its limitations, pharmacotherapeutic op timization based on Bayesian estimation is increasingly used, becoming the reference method today. This characteristic is particularly convenient for routine clinical practice due to the limited number of samples required from the patient and the flexibility it shows regarding blood sampling times for drug quantification. Therefore, the application of Bayesian principles to the practice of clinical phar macokinetics has led to the improvement of pharmacotherapeutic care.

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