澳大利亚新南威尔士州 COVID-19、社会疏远和行动限制对犯罪的影响。

IF 3.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Crime Science Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-10-24 DOI:10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x

Joanna J J Wang, Thomas Fung, Donald Weatherburn

{"title":"澳大利亚新南威尔士州 COVID-19、社会疏远和行动限制对犯罪的影响。","authors":"Joanna J J Wang, Thomas Fung, Donald Weatherburn","doi":"10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8542413/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia.\",\"authors\":\"Joanna J J Wang, Thomas Fung, Donald Weatherburn\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.\",\"PeriodicalId\":37844,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Crime Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8542413/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Crime Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2021/10/24 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Crime Science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/10/24 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

COVID-19 的传播促使世界各国政府对商业活动、公共交通和公众行动自由施加严厉的限制。这些限制措施的效果似乎因国家而异，在某些情况下，也因国家内不同地区而异。本文研究了新南威尔士州（NSW）政府实施的 COVID-19 限制措施的影响。我们研究了从 2017 年 1 月 2 日至 2020 年 6 月 28 日期间 13 类犯罪（以及 4 个综合类犯罪）的每周变化。我们没有使用干预前的数据进行预测，然后将其与实际观察到的数据进行比较，而是使用方框-詹金斯（ARIMA）方法对整个时间序列进行建模。我们的研究结果与其他研究结果基本一致，但我们发现封锁（向上或向下）对家庭攻击行为没有影响：在线版本包含补充材料，可查阅 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

摘要图片

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia.

The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Crime Science Social Sciences-Cultural Studies

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

8.20%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.