牛血吸虫病受污染环境传播动力学的数学模型

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-01-12 DOI:10.1007/s10441-021-09434-y
Solomon Kadaleka, Shirley Abelman, Jean M. Tchuenche
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引用次数: 2

摘要

血吸虫病是一种病媒传播的慢性衰弱性传染病,是受影响的热带和亚热带地区人类和动物面临的严重公共卫生问题。我们制定并从理论上分析了一个具有蜗牛和牛宿主的确定性数学模型。计算了基本再现数\(R_0\),并用它来研究模型稳态的局部稳定性。通过构造合适的Lyapunov函数,实现了局部平衡的全局稳定性。敏感性分析表明,基本繁殖数对与污染环境相关的模型参数最敏感,即蜗牛的尾蚴脱落率、尾蚴对马尾虫的存活率、蜗牛-马尾虫的有效接触率以及马尾虫和马尾虫的自然死亡率。数值结果表明,在不采取干预措施的情况下,受感染类别增加,易感和暴露的牛和蜗牛数量迅速下降。一些关键敏感模型参数的变化对血吸虫病动力学的影响以及对初始疾病传播阈值参数\(R_0\)的影响用图形描述。
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A Mathematical Model of the Transmission Dynamics of Bovine Schistosomiasis with Contaminated Environment

Schistosomiasis, a vector-borne chronically debilitating infectious disease, is a serious public health concern for humans and animals in the affected tropical and sub-tropical regions. We formulate and theoretically analyze a deterministic mathematical model with snail and bovine hosts. The basic reproduction number \(R_0\) is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the model’s steady states. Global stability of the endemic equilibrium is carried out by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function. Sensitivity analysis shows that the basic reproduction number is most sensitive to the model parameters related to the contaminated environment, namely: shedding rate of cercariae by snails, cercariae to miracidia survival probability, snails-miracidia effective contact rate and natural death rate of miracidia and cercariae. Numerical results show that when no intervention measures are implemented, there is an increase of the infected classes, and a rapid decline of the number of susceptible and exposed bovines and snails. Effects of the variation of some of the key sensitive model parameters on the schistosomiasis dynamics as well as on the initial disease transmission threshold parameter \(R_0\) are graphically depicted.

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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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