Prognosis and Prognostic Factors of Patients with Emergent Cerclage: A Japanese Single-Center Study.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to clarify the following: (1) how often does prolonged pregnancy ≥34 weeks occur in patients with emergent cerclage without progesterone and (2) the risk factors preventing such pregnancy continuation.

Materials and methods: This retrospective observational study was performed using medical records of patients for whom emergent cerclage had been performed between April 2006 and December 2018 in our institute.

Results: Emergent cerclage was performed in 123 patients (median age: 34, interquartile range: 31-36). Primiparous patients numbered 44 (36%). A history of spontaneous preterm birth (SPTB) was present in 30 (24%). The median presurgical cervical length (CL) was 16 (8-21) mm at surgery. Of the 123, 20 (16%) were delivered at 33 + 6 weeks or less (<34 weeks). We conducted logistic regression analysis of the risk factors of SPTBs <34 weeks after cerclage. Three risk factors were identified that increased the risk of SPTB <34 weeks: presurgical CL 0 mm (odds ratio (OR): 5.30; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.58-17.7), a history of SPTB (OR: 4.65; 95% CI: 1.38-15.7), and the presence of sludge (OR: 4.14; 95% CI: 1.20-14.3).

Conclusion: Three risk factors predicted SPTB <34 weeks after emergency cerclage without progesterone administration: unmeasurable CL (CL 0 mm), a history of SPTB, and the presence of sludge on ultrasound. SPTB <34 weeks occurred after emergency cerclage in 16% of patients, being comparable with the recent data with progesterone.