Inclusive Trial Designs in Acute Spinal Cord Injuries: Prediction-Based Stratification of Clinical Walking Outcome and Projected Enrolment Frequencies.

Background: New therapeutic approaches in neurological disorders are progressing into clinical development. Past failures in translational research have underlined the critical importance of selecting appropriate inclusion criteria and primary outcomes. Narrow inclusion criteria provide sensitivity, but increase trial duration and cost to the point of infeasibility, while broader requirements amplify confounding, increasing the risk of trial failure. This dilemma is perhaps most pronounced in spinal cord injury (SCI), but applies to all neurological disorders with low frequency and/or heterogeneous clinical manifestations.

Objective: Stratification of homogeneous patient cohorts to enable the design of clinical trials with broad inclusion criteria.

Methods: Prospectively-gathered data from patients with acute cervical SCI were analysed using an unbiased recursive partitioning conditional inference tree (URP-CTREE) approach. Performance in the 6-minute walk test at 6 months after injury was classified based on standardized neurological assessments within the first 15 days of injury. Functional and neurological outcomes were tracked throughout rehabilitation up to 6 months after injury.

Results: URP-CTREE identified homogeneous outcome cohorts in a study group of 309 SCI patients. These cohorts were validated by an internal, yet independent, validation group of 172 patients. The study group cohorts identified demonstrated distinct recovery profiles throughout rehabilitation. The baseline characteristics of the analysed groups were compared to a reference group of 477 patients.

Conclusion: URP-CTREE enables inclusive trial design by revealing the distribution of outcome cohorts, discerning distinct recovery profiles and projecting potential patient enrolment by providing estimates of the relative frequencies of cohorts to improve the design of clinical trials in SCI and beyond.