The Effect of Mexican Emigration to the US on Trade and Inward FDI in Mexico*

Using a panel data set of the 32 Mexican states and the 10 years from 2008 and 2017, this paper estimates the potential contribution of migration to international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). In the context of Mexico and the United States, we estimate models with a generalized propensity scores (GPS) methodology in order to account for the endogeneity of the migration decision, in addition to baseline gravity models. We find a generally positive and significant relationship between Mexico-US migration and Mexico-US imports, exports, and inward FDI from the US to Mexico. While mixed evidence is found across the various gravity estimations regarding the relationship between Mexico-US migration and inward FDI from the US to Mexico, the GPS results signal consistency across various estimations. Even when controlling for size of the state population, size of the state economy, distance from the capital city of each state to the Mexico-US border, and the fact that a state is on the Mexico-US border, basic results remain consistent. We conclude that in this context migration complements trade and inward FDI, and point to transnationalism as a central factor that leads to migration’s positive contribution.