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Export Market Size Matters: The Effect of the Market Size of Export Destinations on Manufacturing Growth 出口市场规模很重要:出口目的地市场规模对制造业增长的影响
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2300301
Thomas Goda, Santiago Sánchez González
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引用次数: 0
Pandemics and Economic Complexity: A Cross-Country Analysis 大流行病与经济复杂性:跨国分析
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2300309
Dinh Trung Nguyen, Kim Thanh Duong, H. Phung, Mai Quynh Ha
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引用次数: 0
Non-tariff Measures on the Production Network: Analysis on the Forward and Backward Participation in Global Value Chains 生产网络的非关税措施:全球价值链中的前向和后向参与分析
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2298952
Kunhyui Kim
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引用次数: 0
The Trade Effect of Non-tariff Measures in a Comprehensive Trade Agreement 全面贸易协定中非关税措施的贸易效应
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2298943
Kazunobu Hayakawa, Juthathip Jongwanich, Archanun Kohpaiboon
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Volatility of Foreign Investors’ Net Purchase in Korean Stock Market 宏观经济基本面与外国投资者在韩国股票市场的净购买波动性
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2286976
Jin Lee, Hangyong Lee
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引用次数: 0
Tax Cost: Does It Deter Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)? 税收成本:它是否会阻碍外国直接投资(FDI)?
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2286946
Munmi Saikia
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引用次数: 0
Linking Industrialization and Environmental Quality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the Environmental Policy Stringency Matter? 将撒哈拉以南非洲的工业化与环境质量联系起来:环境政策的严格程度是否重要?
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-25 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2286955
G. Nkemgha, Symphorien Engone Mve, Tekam Oumbé Honoré, Alim Belek
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引用次数: 0
How Wide is the Euro? 欧元有多宽?
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2275306
Luigi Ventura, Mark David Witte
AbstractThis paper examines the impact of Euro invoicing on Italian exports to non-EU countries. In addition to examining the role of currency invoicing on the intensive and extensive margin of trade, we introduce the ‘entrenched’ margin of trade. We define the entrenched margin of trade as the number of transactions between two countries of a particular good. With highly disaggregated data, we use a two-stage methodology to predict the probability of Euro dominated Italian exports and then use that predicted probability on the intensive, extensive and entrenched margin of trade. Results show that the probability of Euro dominated trade invoicing reduces all three margins of trade. Specifically, a 10% increase in probability of Euro dominated Italian exports has roughly the same impact as additional 1532 km on the intensive margin of trade, 1096 km on the extensive margin of trade and 1314 km on the entrenched margin of trade. The negative effect of Euro invoicing is most consistent with lower-middle income trading partners and more thinly traded goods. We surmise that these results are due to varying access to financial instrumentation among Italian trade partners and a trade diversion effect of Italian exports to EU countries versus non-EU markets.KEYWORDS: Trade marginscurrency invoicingEuroexportsdistanceJEL Classifications: F10F14 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 See Ventura and Witte (Citation2016) and Arioldi et al. (Citation2022).2 It would not be impossible for a good forensic analysis to identify major Italian firms and gather a variety of sensitive trade information with this data.3 Region dummy variables are used in place of country dummies for the same reasons that 2-digit good dummies are used instead of 4-digit dummies: overidentification and multicollinearity in predicting a variable that is often zero or one. Overidentification and multicollinearity are major problems with predicting the currency denomination of trade because, as far as the invoicing currency is concerned, there isn’t much statistical difference between many countries (e.g. the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, the Central African Franc countries) or between 4-digit good designations (e.g. 3901-3909 are likely produced by the same two companies: Vinavil and Versalis). This simplification is used in other studies of the same Italian trade data.4 Notable exceptions are the low-middle income countries with either the East African franc or West African franc. These include Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Benin, Cameroon and Congo which are not major importers of Italian goods.
摘要本文考察了欧元发票对意大利对非欧盟国家出口的影响。除了研究货币发票在贸易的密集和广泛边际上的作用外,我们还介绍了“根深蒂固”的贸易边际。我们将根深蒂固的贸易边际定义为两国之间某种特定商品的交易数量。使用高度分解的数据,我们使用两阶段方法来预测欧元主导的意大利出口的概率,然后使用预测的密集、广泛和根深蒂固的贸易边际的概率。结果表明,以欧元为主导的贸易开票的可能性降低了所有三种贸易边际。具体来说,欧元主导的意大利出口增加10%的可能性,对贸易密集边际增加1532公里,贸易广泛边际增加1096公里,贸易根深蒂固边际增加1314公里的影响大致相同。欧元发票的负面影响与中低收入贸易伙伴和交易较少的商品最为一致。我们推测,这些结果是由于意大利贸易伙伴之间获得金融工具的机会不同,以及意大利出口到欧盟国家与非欧盟市场的贸易转移效应。关键词:贸易边际汇率发票欧洲出口距离el分类:F10F14披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1参见Ventura and Witte (Citation2016)和Arioldi et al. (Citation2022)通过良好的法医分析来识别主要的意大利公司,并利用这些数据收集各种敏感的贸易信息,这并非不可能使用区域虚拟变量代替国家虚拟变量的原因与使用2位数的良好虚拟变量代替4位数虚拟变量的原因相同:在预测通常为0或1的变量时过度识别和多重共线性。过度识别和多重共线性是预测贸易货币面额的主要问题,因为就计价货币而言,许多国家之间(例如海湾合作委员会国家,中非法郎国家)或4位数良好名称之间(例如3901-3909可能由相同的两家公司生产:Vinavil和Versalis)没有太大的统计差异。这一简化方法也用于对同一意大利贸易数据的其他研究值得注意的例外是使用东非法郎或西非法郎的中低收入国家。这些国家包括塞内加尔、科特迪瓦、贝宁、喀麦隆和刚果,它们都不是意大利商品的主要进口国。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of MICs and HICs for 2000–2020 制度质量与经济增长:2000-2020年中等收入国家和高收入国家动态面板数据分析
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2261012
Mirwais Parsa, Soumya Datta
ABSTRACTWe investigate the dynamic impact of institutions on economic growth using a panel dataset of 77 countries, divided into MICs and HICs for the period 2000-2020. We critically examine the available institutional indices and construct three weighted indices from 20 indicators closely related to the meaning of the term ‘institutions’ as the ‘rules of the game’ defined by Douglas North. Next, we use the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to show that institutions significantly influence economic growth through investment and trade more than the total factor productivity channel. While the quality of the legal system and property rights and regulatory quality all positively and significantly influence output per capita, output gains from each unit of improvement in the quality of legal systems and protection of private property rights are comparatively higher than gains from a unit of improvement in the regulatory environment. An average MIC gains relatively more from improving its quality of legal system and property rights, whereas an average HIC benefits relatively more from each unit of improvement in its regulatory environment. The results from the Granger non-causality test demonstrate and unidirectional causality from institutions to economic growth in MICs but no significant causal relationship between institutions and economic growth in HICsKEYWORDS: Institutionsinstitutional qualityproperty rightsregulationseconomic growthtransmission mechanismGMMJEL CLASSIFICATIONS: O43O47 AcknowledgementThis article is drawn from the first author's Ph.D. thesis, titled ‘Essays in Institutions and Economic Development’, completed at South Asian University, New Delhi, India. The authors gratefully acknowledge the useful comments of the referees on earlier versions of the article. The authors are also grateful to Sunil Kumar and Binoy Goswami for their comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 The extent to which regulations and bureaucratic procedures restrain entry and reduce competition.2 We dropped a couple of indicators from Area 4 of EFW database that were relevant to our perception of institutions but had extensive missing values. We excluded Area 1 because it is all about the size of the government. We have included a direct independent variable in the model that captures the size of the government. Adding this area to the index would have led to identification issues. Similarly, we left out some variables from Area Three and Area Four, like ‘control of the movement of capital and people,’ ‘Freedom of foreigners to visit,’ ‘capital controls,’ etc., as we believe these indicators do not relate closely to our perception of institutions.3 The index is based on years of schooling and returns to education.4 One-unit increase in institutional quality in the sample of high-income countries is a difference between the rating of a country like the U
摘要本文利用2000-2020年期间77个国家的面板数据集(分为中等收入国家和高收入国家)研究了制度对经济增长的动态影响。我们批判性地考察了现有的制度指数,并从20个指标中构建了三个加权指数,这些指标与道格拉斯·诺斯(Douglas North)定义的“制度”作为“游戏规则”一词的含义密切相关。其次,我们使用广义矩量法(GMM)证明制度通过投资和贸易而不是全要素生产率渠道显著影响经济增长。虽然法制质量、产权质量和监管质量都对人均产出产生积极而显著的影响,但法制质量和私有产权保护每一单位的改善所带来的产出收益相对高于监管环境每一单位的改善所带来的收益。中等收入国家从改善其法律制度和产权质量中获得的收益相对更多,而中等收入国家从其监管环境的每一单位改善中获得的收益相对更多。格兰杰非因果检验结果表明,中等收入国家的制度与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系,而高收入国家的制度与经济增长之间没有显著的因果关系。关键词:制度;制度质量;产权;O43O47 AcknowledgementThis文章是来自第一作者的博士论文,题为“论文在机构和经济发展”,南亚大学完成,新德里,印度。作者感谢审稿人对文章早期版本的有用评论。作者也感谢Sunil Kumar和Binoy Goswami提出的意见和建议。通常的免责声明适用。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1规章和官僚程序限制进入和减少竞争的程度我们从EFW数据库的第4区删除了几个指标,这些指标与我们对机构的看法有关,但存在大量缺失值。我们排除了区域1,因为它是所有大小的政府。我们在模型中加入了一个反映政府规模的直接自变量。将这个区域添加到索引中会导致识别问题。同样,我们从第三区和第四区遗漏了一些变量,如“资本和人员流动的控制”、“外国人访问的自由”、“资本控制”等,因为我们认为这些指标与我们对机构的看法不密切相关该指数基于受教育年限和教育回报增加1个单位制度质量样品的一个区别是高收入国家的评级0.78国家像美国和韩国0.61,或英国0.82和0.65拉脱维亚。在中等收入国家的样本中,制度质量每增加一个单位,印度尼西亚和赞比亚之间的差异为0.39,赞比亚为0.25,以色列和印度为0.6,印度为0.46(见表B7, 2020年评级)国内投资对人均产出的边际影响是按每个收入群体的制度质量平均评级计算的。本文作者是匹兹堡大学治理与市场研究中心的研究学者。他拥有南亚大学经济学博士学位。他的博士论文主要研究制度和经济发展。主要研究方向为宏观经济理论、制度经济学和政治经济学。Soumya Datta,南亚大学经济学院经济学副教授。主要研究方向为宏观经济理论、非线性动力学和复杂系统。他目前的研究工作主要集中在增长周期、资产价格泡沫、异质性主体模型和宏观经济流行病学模型。
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引用次数: 0
World Output and Commodity Price Cycles* 世界产出和商品价格周期*
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-05 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2263844
William Ginn
AbstractThis study investigates the cyclical patterns of energy, agriculture, and metals and minerals (MetMin) commodity prices. We identify three super cycles since 1960, and a potential fourth arising from the Ukraine crisis and global COVID-19 pandemic. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach, we establish an empirical relationship between output, CPI, and commodity prices. Our analysis reveals that an output shock leads to a general increase in all commodity prices, where the highest impact is on energy inflation. Moreover, we examine the heterogeneous effects of commodity inflation on overall inflation, uncovering ‘second round' effects across all commodities. Notably, agriculture inflation has the most significant impact on aggregate inflation, potentially explaining the destabilizing nature of food inflation in many countries. Our findings enhance understanding of these dynamics, offering important insights for policymakers and informing the public.Highlights We analyze the cyclical patterns of energy, agriculture and MetMin commodity prices.Real output, CPI and commodities exhibit the same cyclical patterns.A shock to output increases all commodities, where the highest response is energy inflation.We find ‘second-round' effects, where agriculture prices have the highest impact on inflation.KEYWORDS: Super cyclesGlobal Commodity PricesGlobal Macroeconometric ModelingJEL Classifications: Q43O13L61E23 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 We convert nominal global GDP (FRED mnemonic NYGDPMKTPCDWLD), which is denominated in U.S. Dollars (FRED mnemonic CPALTT01USA661S), to real GDP by dividing the former with the U.S. CPI.2 The data is publicly available https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets. The agricultural index is a weighted average of prices of food (e.g., cereals, oils), beverages (e.g., coffee, cocoa and tea), agricultural raw materials (e.g., timber, cotton), and metals and minerals (e.g., aluminum, copper, iron ore, lead, nickel, steel, tin, zinc). The oil price is based on the average of the Brent, Dubai and WTI crude oil price.3 The cycle trend is consistent with Christiano and Fitzgerald (Citation2003) who use the asymmetric CF band pass filter of up to 8 years for output.4 The 25 economies include: Australia (‘AUS’), Austria (‘AUT’), Belgium (‘Belgium’), Canada (‘CAN’), Switzerland (‘CHE’), Germany (‘DEU’), Spain (‘ESP’), Finland (‘FIN’), France (‘FRA’), United Kingdom (‘GBR’), Greece (‘GRC’), India (‘IND’), Iceland (‘ISL’), Italy (‘ITA’), Japan (‘JPN’), South Korea (‘KOR’), Luxembourg (‘LUX’), Netherlands (‘NLD’), Norway (‘NOR’), New Zealand (‘NZL’), Portugal (‘PRT’), Sweden (‘SWE’), Turkey (‘TUR’), United States (‘USA’) and South Africa (‘ZAF’).5 Our results are similar to Ratti and Vespignani (Citation2016), who show that the first principal component captures 89.6% of the variation for prices relating to the G5 countries.6 While the foc
我们发现产出增长和总通货膨胀对能源和石油通货膨胀有相当大的影响,共同占方差的30%左右对石油通货膨胀的影响是持续的定义为实际商品价格对全球实际经济增长的变化Buyuksahin等人(Citation2016)估计,全球石油、金属和农业产出增长的价格弹性分别为14.0、9.2和7.2个百分点我们将SVAR扩展为时变参数VAR (TVP-VAR)。与SVAR模型一致,选择一个滞后对所有三个模型进行tpv - var估计。SVAR和TVP-VAR之间的irf是一致的,见附录17中的图A11。能源、农业和MetMin在整个样本上的标准差分别为0.254、0.096和0.152。能源、农业和MetMin自1990年以来的标准差分别为0.245、0.071和0.165Buyuksahin等人(Citation2016)认为,农业生产的反应要快得多,通常在下一个生长季节,考虑到石油和金属项目的投资成本通常更高,这些项目可能有很长的酝酝期(例如,Radetzki, Citation2006;Cuddington & Jerrett, Citation2008).19根据Amaglobeli等人(Citation2022)的说法,“能源的需求反应可能相当大,但食物的需求反应要小得多,因为人们需要吃同样多的食物。”[20] Ginn & Pourroy, Citation2019和Ginn & Pourroy, Citation2022显示,在旨在缓冲价格上涨影响的大规模生产者和消费者食品价格补贴方面,存在一种内生的财政政策反应,这可能是一种政策诱导的价格平滑机制,与经典的卡尔沃价格粘性方法不同,但又相似Wiggins等人(Citation2010)指出,2007年食品价格一旦开始上涨,就会出现放大反应,加速价格上涨,如出口限制,国家强加的食品进口税增加如果比较食品通胀和石油通胀的irf,结果仍然是一样的(见图A6.23)。根据IEA的数据,美国的能源份额为3.2%。根据美国农业部的数据,到2021.24年,美国的食品支出占比为10.3%。根据Pourroy等人(Citation2016)的数据,食品价格的变化会导致通货膨胀的显著变化,而在低收入经济体,食品支出占比通常更高。Pourroy等人(Citation2016)表明,低收入、中等收入和高收入经济体的食品支出份额分别为48%、31%和20%。这种关系被称为恩格尔定律参见https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20191108a.htm.Additional信息投稿者说明william Ginn william Ginn是Labcorp的高级经济学家/数据科学家。他来自美国,在欧洲生活了多年,目前居住在德国。他在东卡罗莱纳大学(East Carolina University)获得经济学学士学位;杜克大学经济学硕士学位;牛津大学耶稣学院MBA学位;并在埃尔兰根-纽伦堡大学获得经济学博士学位。
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