Tradeoffs between fertility and child development attributes: evidence from coral bleaching in Indonesia

Abstract Coral bleaching is associated with large income shocks and a substantial decrease in protein consumption among the affected fishery households in Indonesia [Chaijaroen (2019) Long-lasting income shocks and adaptations: evidence from coral bleaching in Indonesia. Journal of Development Economics 136, 119–136]. According to the health and economics literature, early childhood exposures to shocks such as those from coral bleaching can have long-lasting effects on health, schooling, and other later-life outcomes. This paper explores how the mass coral bleaching in 1998 affected household decisions on fertility and child development. Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) and a triple differences approach, results from 2000 suggest an increase in fertility and an increased likelihood of severe childhood stunting among the affected households. For comparison, rainfall shocks are associated with a decrease in fertility and smaller adverse effects on child health and schooling outcomes. This study suggests that the effects of coral bleaching might have been underestimated, and our findings yield more targeted policy recommendations on climate shock mitigation.