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A New Approach to Modeling the Cure Rate in the Presence of Interval Censored Data. 在存在区间剔除数据的情况下建立治愈率模型的新方法》(A New Approach to Modeling the Cure Rate in Presence of Interval Censored Data.
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s00180-023-01389-7
Suvra Pal, Yingwei Peng, Wisdom Aselisewine

We consider interval censored data with a cured subgroup that arises from longitudinal followup studies with a heterogeneous population where a certain proportion of subjects is not susceptible to the event of interest. We propose a two component mixture cure model, where the first component describing the probability of cure is modeled by a support vector machine-based approach and the second component describing the survival distribution of the uncured group is modeled by a proportional hazard structure. Our proposed model provides flexibility in capturing complex effects of covariates on the probability of cure unlike the traditional models that rely on modeling the cure probability using a generalized linear model with a known link function. For the estimation of model parameters, we develop an expectation maximization-based estimation algorithm. We conduct simulation studies and show that our proposed model performs better in capturing complex effects of covariates on the cure probability when compared to the traditional logit link-based two component mixture cure model. This results in more accurate (smaller bias) and precise (smaller mean square error) estimates of the cure probabilities, which in-turn improves the predictive accuracy of the latent cured status. We further show that our model's ability to capture complex covariate effects also improves the estimation results corresponding to the survival distribution of the uncured. Finally, we apply the proposed model and estimation procedure to an interval censored data on smoking cessation.

我们考虑了具有治愈亚组的区间删减数据,该亚组产生于具有异质性人群的纵向随访研究,其中一定比例的受试者不易受到相关事件的影响。我们提出了一种双分量混合治愈模型,其中描述治愈概率的第一分量由基于支持向量机的方法建模,描述未治愈组生存分布的第二分量由比例危险结构建模。我们提出的模型可以灵活地捕捉协变量对治愈概率的复杂影响,而不像传统模型那样依赖于使用已知链接函数的广义线性模型对治愈概率进行建模。为了估计模型参数,我们开发了一种基于期望最大化的估计算法。我们进行了模拟研究,结果表明,与传统的基于 logit 链接的双成分混合治愈模型相比,我们提出的模型能更好地捕捉协变量对治愈概率的复杂影响。这使得对治愈概率的估计更准确(偏差更小)、更精确(均方误差更小),从而提高了对潜在治愈状态的预测准确性。我们进一步表明,我们的模型能够捕捉复杂的协变量效应,这也改善了与未治愈者生存分布相对应的估计结果。最后,我们将提出的模型和估计程序应用于戒烟的区间删减数据。
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引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization and the choice of pollution abatement 贸易自由化与减少污染的选择
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x24000068
Takumi Haibara

It is well known that a consumer price-neutral reform of consumption taxes and import tariffs is welfare-improving. This paper shows that such price controls are inferior to quantity controls in terms of welfare improvement. The paper next turns to a comparison of different abatement strategies. Whether or not policy changes should fix private abatement or public abatement relates to the level of earmarking, and depends on the relationship between private production and public abatement. There are cases in which increased public abatement only improves welfare by more than both increased private and public abatement together. The paper recommends that environmental earmarking in the form of public abatement should be delivered to cushion price hikes and sustain private energy consumption.

众所周知,消费者价格中立的消费税和进口关税改革可以改善福利。本文表明,就改善福利而言,这种价格控制不如数量控制。接下来,本文将对不同的减排策略进行比较。政策变化应固定私人减排还是公共减排,这与指定用途的程度有关,并取决于私人生产与公共减排之间的关系。在某些情况下,增加公共减排对福利的改善程度仅高于同时增加私人减排和公共减排的改善程度。本文建议,应以公共减排的形式提供环境专用资金,以缓解价格上涨和维持私人能源消费。
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引用次数: 0
With or without the European Union: the convention for the protection of the Black Sea against pollution 有没有欧洲联盟:保护黑海免受污染公约
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x24000056
Basak Bayramoglu, Corina Haita-Falah
The Black Sea is an enclosed sea surrounded by six coastal countries, of which Bulgaria and Romania are EU Member States. The Convention for the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution was ratified in 1994 by all coastal countries. This Convention is the only European regional sea convention to which the EU is not a Party. While Romania and Bulgaria are in favor of EU accession to the Convention, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine thus far have blocked accession. In this paper, we develop a negotiation model with endogenous enforcement and exogenous fraud to analyze the different positions of groups of coastal countries relative to EU accession to the Convention. Our model contributes to defining a proposal that the EU could make to the opposing states such that they accept the EU as a Party to the Convention. In that context we investigate also whether Romania and Bulgaria might be better off delegating their decision power to the EU, rather than retaining their individual voting rights.
黑海是一个封闭的海域,周围有六个沿海国家,其中保加利亚和罗马尼亚是欧盟成员国。所有沿海国家于 1994 年批准了《保护黑海免受污染公约》。该公约是欧盟唯一没有加入的欧洲地区海洋公约。虽然罗马尼亚和保加利亚赞成欧盟加入该公约,但土耳其、俄罗斯和乌克兰至今仍阻止欧盟加入该公约。在本文中,我们建立了一个内生执行和外生欺诈的谈判模型,以分析沿海国家集团对欧盟加入《公约》的不同立场。我们的模型有助于确定欧盟可向反对国提出的建议,从而使其接受欧盟成为《公约》缔约方。在此背景下,我们还研究了罗马尼亚和保加利亚是否最好将其决策权委托给欧盟,而不是保留各自的投票权。
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引用次数: 0
Institutions' quality and environmental pollution in Africa 非洲机构的质量与环境污染
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x24000044
Dieudonné Mignamissi, Hervé William Mougnol A. Ekoula, Thierno Thioune
This paper tests the pollution emissions and institutional quality nexus in Africa. Specifically, we analyze the effect of the political regime and the quality of political governance on CO2 emissions. To control for endogeneity, we apply the system generalized method of moments on a dynamic panel of African countries over the period 1996–2020. The key finding suggests that better institutions have a negative and significant effect on pollution in Africa. The findings also validate the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Moreover, the results support the pollution haven hypothesis. Finally, if digitalization significantly curbs pollution, then industrialization, natural resources, as well as the intensive use of energy, are considered as positive predictors. All the sensitivity and robustness tests globally validate the strength of the negative association between the good quality of institutions and the level of polluting emissions in Africa. The results call for some policy recommendations in environmental regulation for African economies.
本文检验了非洲的污染排放与制度质量之间的关系。具体而言,我们分析了政治体制和政治治理质量对二氧化碳排放的影响。为了控制内生性,我们对 1996-2020 年间非洲国家的动态面板应用了系统广义矩方法。主要发现表明,较好的制度对非洲的污染有显著的负面影响。研究结果还验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线假说。此外,研究结果还支持污染天堂假说。最后,如果数字化能明显抑制污染,那么工业化、自然资源以及能源的密集使用就会被认为是积极的预测因素。所有的敏感性和稳健性测试都在全球范围内验证了非洲良好的制度质量与污染排放水平之间负相关的强度。研究结果为非洲经济体的环境监管提出了一些政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-ownership and strategic environmental corporate social responsibility under price competition 价格竞争下的交叉所有权和战略性环境企业社会责任
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x24000032
Mingqing Xing, Sang-Ho Lee

This paper examines the impact of cross-ownership on the strategic incentive of environmental corporate social responsibility (ECSR) within a green managerial delegation contract in a triopoly market engaged in price competition. It demonstrates that bilateral cross-ownership between insiders provides weak incentives to undertake ECSR, which has a non-monotone relationship with cross-ownership shares, while it provides strong incentives for outsiders, which increases the ECSR level as cross-ownership increases. It also compares unilateral cross-ownership and finds that a firm that owns shares in its rival has a greater incentive to undertake ECSR than its partially-owned rival, while an outsider has more incentive than firms in bilateral scenarios. These findings reveal that a firm's incentive to increase a market price through ECSR critically depends on its cross-ownership share, while it decreases environmental damage and increases social welfare when the environmental damage is serious.

本文研究了在价格竞争的三方垄断市场中,交叉所有权对绿色管理委托合同中环境企业社会责任(ECSR)战略激励的影响。研究表明,内部人之间的双边交叉所有权为承担 ECSR 提供了较弱的激励,这种激励与交叉所有权份额呈非单调关系;而它为外部人提供了较强的激励,这种激励会随着交叉所有权的增加而提高 ECSR 水平。研究还对单边交叉持股进行了比较,发现与部分持股的竞争对手相比,拥有竞争对手股份的企业有更大的动力进行ECSR,而在双边情况下,外部人比企业有更大的动力进行ECSR。这些研究结果表明,企业通过生态补偿提高市场价格的动力主要取决于其交叉所有权份额,而当环境损害严重时,它能减少环境损害并增加社会福利。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring and management of common property resources: empirical evidence from forest user groups in Ethiopia 共同财产资源的监测和管理:埃塞俄比亚森林用户群体的经验证据
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x23000165
Goytom Abraha Kahsay, Erwin Bulte

The presence of monitoring institutions affects quality and effort of leaders. We investigate the effect of intensified monitoring on the ability and effort of leaders for a sample of forest user groups in Ethiopia, and find experimental and non-experimental evidence of an important trade-off: monitoring increases leaders' effort but lowers their quality in terms of education and experience. This effort–ability trade-off only occurs in the presence of alternative income opportunities (affecting the opportunity cost of time) and only among a subsample of leaders with low prosocial motivation. For our context, we document that the net effect of monitoring on economic outcomes is positive.

监督机构的存在会影响领导者的素质和努力程度。我们以埃塞俄比亚的森林使用者群体为样本,调查了强化监督对领导者能力和努力的影响,发现了重要权衡的实验和非实验证据:监督增加了领导者的努力,但降低了他们在教育和经验方面的质量。只有在存在其他收入机会(影响时间的机会成本)的情况下,这种努力与能力的权衡才会发生,而且只发生在亲社会动机较低的领导者子样本中。在我们的研究中,我们发现监督对经济结果的净影响是积极的。
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引用次数: 0
Boosted income, busted environment: a tradeoff in the wider economic impacts of transport corridor investments? 提高收入,破坏环境:交通走廊投资对更广泛经济影响的权衡?
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-09 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x23000177
Martin Melecky, Siddharth Sharma, Hari Subhash
The literature on the impacts of transport corridors points to a tradeoff between income and environmental quality. We estimate the impacts of India's Golden Quadrilateral and North-South-East-West highways on income and environmental quality to test this tradeoff hypothesis. Applying the difference-in-difference method to district level data, we find that the highways increased both local income and particulate matter air pollution. The estimated increase in air pollution is robust to using an instrumental variables approach, while that in income is not. Examining heterogeneity in these impacts, we find that the income–environment tradeoff was less steep in districts with initially higher educational attainment rates because they experienced a smaller increase in air pollution due to the highways.
有关交通走廊影响的文献指出,收入与环境质量之间存在权衡。我们估算了印度黄金四边形高速公路和南北东西高速公路对收入和环境质量的影响,以验证这一权衡假设。通过对地区级数据采用差分法,我们发现高速公路既增加了当地收入,也加剧了颗粒物空气污染。使用工具变量法可以稳健地估计空气污染的增加,而收入的增加则不稳健。在研究这些影响的异质性时,我们发现在最初教育程度较高的地区,收入与环境之间的权衡没有那么剧烈,因为这些地区因高速公路而增加的空气污染较少。
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引用次数: 0
Was global deforestation under lockdown? 全球森林砍伐被封锁了吗?
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x23000153
Santiago Saavedra
The COVID-19 pandemic and government responses led to a halt in economic activity. While this reduced pollution in urban areas, its effect on deforestation in areas outside of cities is unclear. Deforestation may have decreased due to the restrictions on economic activity, but, it may have increased due to the drying up of alternative income sources. We analyzed bi-weekly data on tropical forests worldwide in relation to the dates when different countries implemented lockdown restrictions. Our analysis found that while lockdowns did reduce mobility in forest municipalities, the average effect on deforestation was not significant. However, we did observe variations in the impact of lockdowns on deforestation based on the share of lockdown-vulnerable GDP and the level of government effectiveness. These results stand across tropical countries and within Colombia. These findings highlight the importance of alternative income sources and strong state capacity for effective policies aimed at reducing deforestation.
2019冠状病毒病大流行和政府应对措施导致经济活动停滞。虽然这减少了城市地区的污染,但它对城市以外地区森林砍伐的影响尚不清楚。由于对经济活动的限制,森林砍伐可能减少了,但由于替代收入来源的枯竭,森林砍伐可能增加了。我们分析了全球热带森林的双周数据,与不同国家实施封锁限制的日期有关。我们的分析发现,虽然封锁确实降低了森林城市的流动性,但对森林砍伐的平均影响并不显著。然而,我们确实观察到,根据易受封锁影响的GDP占比和政府效率水平,封锁对森林砍伐的影响存在差异。这些结果适用于热带国家和哥伦比亚境内。这些发现强调了其他收入来源和强大的国家能力对于旨在减少森林砍伐的有效政策的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Long-run management of Greenland's fishery on Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) 格陵兰大比目鱼渔业的长期管理
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x23000128
Frank Jensen, Ayoe Hoff, Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, Henrik Meilby
In this paper, we consider four scenarios for economic optimal management of a fisheries resource by a high sea and coastal fleet segment. These scenarios differ with respect to whether a common or two separate fish stocks are considered and whether the profit from land-based processing is included. The model is parametrized using the Greenland halibut fishery on the west coast of Greenland as an empirical case. For this fishery, we show that the relative ranking of the optimal high sea industry harvest and profit compared to the coastal industry harvest and profit depends on the chosen scenario. When comparing the scenarios for optimal management and the actual situation, we find that the fish stock tends to be overexploited.
在本文中,我们考虑了公海和沿海船队段对渔业资源进行经济最优管理的四种情况。这些设想在是否考虑一种共同的或两种单独的鱼类种群以及是否包括陆上加工的利润方面有所不同。该模型以格陵兰岛西海岸的大比目鱼渔业为实例进行了参数化。对于该渔业,我们表明,与沿海产业收获和利润相比,公海产业最优收获和利润的相对排名取决于所选择的情景。将最优管理方案与实际情况进行比较,发现鱼类资源有过度开发的趋势。
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引用次数: 0
The direct and indirect economic consequences of climate damage in poor countries 气候破坏对贫穷国家的直接和间接经济后果
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1017/s1355770x23000104
John Knight
The predictions of the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change are now accepted. Somewhat less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The three interact: the former will have social and political effects, which in turn will harm economies and economic well-being. This analysis of poor countries draws on much recent evidence and various projections. Climate damage contributes to internal political instability and conflict. There is a risk that poor countries will be driven down economically, so reducing the capacity of their governments: some will become fragile states. Internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration will also grow. Climate damage will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. This scenario presented is predictive but should be taken as a warning.
关于温室气体排放对气候变化的不利影响的预测现已被接受。对经济、社会和政治后果的关注相对较少。这三者相互作用:前者将产生社会和政治影响,进而损害经济和经济福祉。这种对贫穷国家的分析借鉴了许多最近的证据和各种预测。气候破坏导致国内政治不稳定和冲突。有一种风险是,贫穷国家将在经济上被拖垮,从而削弱其政府的能力:一些国家将成为脆弱国家。国内移民很可能成为一个核心政策问题。然而,国际移民也将增长。气候破坏将使各国既相互合作又相互冲突。研究了对派遣国、邻近国家和目的地国家的影响。这种情况是可预测的,但应被视为一种警告。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Environment and Development Economics
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