Uncertainty quantification by probabilistic analysis of circular fins

Abstract The temperature distribution and thermal Stresses induced by a temperature difference for steady state heat transfer in silicon carbide (SiC) ceramic tube heat exchanger with circular fins was computationally simulated by a finite element method and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the performance parameters. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the hoop stresses due to the structural and thermodynamic random variables. These results are used to identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design and make it cost effective. The probabilistic analysis leads to the selection of the appropriate measurements to be used in structural and heat transfer analysis and to the identification of both the most critical measurements and parameters.