Marta Gómez-Puig , Mary Pieterse-Bloem , Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
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Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign debt markets
We examine the dynamic interconnections between sovereign credit and liquidity risks in ten euro area countries at the 5-year maturity with daily CDS data from IHS Markit and high-frequency data from MTS between 2008 and 2018 using the extended TVP-VAR connectedness approach of Antonakakis et al. (2020). We find that, for most of the period, net connectedness is from credit risk to liquidity risk, but this indicator is time-dependent, detecting some episodes where it goes from liquidity risk to credit risk. We set up an event study and discover that most of the latter episodes can be related to several unconventional monetary policy measures of the ECB. Then, we examine the drivers of the connectedness indicator using a Probit model. Our results suggest that a decline in global funding liquidity, monetary policy shocks and economic policy uncertainty increase the probability of risk transmission from liquidity to credit, while tensions in financial markets and the deterioration of fiscal sustainability are factors that reduce such a probability.
期刊介绍:
International trade, financing and investments have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years, and the operations of corporations have become increasingly multinationalized. Corporate executives buying and selling goods and services, and making financing and investment decisions across national boundaries, have developed policies and procedures for managing cash flows denominated in foreign currencies. These policies and procedures, and the related managerial actions of executives, change as new relevant information becomes available. The purpose of the Journal of Multinational Financial Management is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the management of the multinational enterprise. Theoretical, conceptual, and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • Foreign exchange risk management • International capital budgeting • Forecasting exchange rates • Foreign direct investment • Hedging strategies • Cost of capital • Managing transaction exposure • Political risk assessment • International working capital management • International financial planning • International tax management • International diversification • Transfer pricing strategies • International liability management • International mergers.