中国开发用地估价准确性研究——以北京市为例

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Property Investment & Finance Pub Date : 2020-10-14 DOI:10.1108/jpif-06-2020-0072
Mengmeng Dou, Lesley Hemphill, L. Lim
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引用次数: 1

摘要

鉴于工业市场作为促进城市增长的基础支柱的重要性,特别是在新兴经济体,本文旨在定量研究中国空置工业用地的估价准确性。设计/方法/方法在中国,政府制定土地基准价格(LBP),作为出售土地权的价格参考点。为了深入了解LBP的估价实践,本文使用相关性分析来研究基于交易的价格和基于LBP评估的估计之间的变化动态。此外,误差范围检验调查了LBP土地评估中的失真,并提出了修正的LBP,以提高当前LBP方法的准确性。发现不同的影响因素会影响实际市场交易价格和LBP建设,导致工业用地评估存在较大差异。人们认识到一个系统性问题,即LBP的构建遵循城市投标曲线理论,而土地交易价格则不遵循,这表明需要紧急更新LBP,以捕捉工业市场的市场动态。实际含义本文阐述了围绕LBP估值方法在中国的应用,在估值准确性方面存在的差异。这对估价师具有实际意义,可以提高他们对该方法的不足之处以及他们在评估中需要防范的陷阱的认识。它还对依赖估价师评估土地购买可行性的开发商和投资者产生了影响;因此,他们需要在寻求评估建议时表示谨慎。最后,结果向标准制定者展示了他们需要如何修改LBP方程,以更好地捕捉市场动态。独创性/价值本文通过评估价格和交易价格之间的估价差异来检验转型经济体的估价准确性。这项工作的价值在于分析市场价格和估价之间的根本差异,这对投资者/开发商、执业估价师以及负责制定估价标准的政府官员都很重要。
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Development land valuation accuracy in China – a case study of Beijing
PurposeThe paper aims to quantitatively investigate vacant industrial land valuation accuracy in China, given the importance of the industrial market as an underlying pillar to promote urban growth especially in emerging economies.Design/methodology/approachIn China, the government formulates a Land Benchmark Price (LBP) to serve as a price reference point to sell land rights. To gain an in-depth understanding of the valuation practice by LBP, this paper uses correlation analysis to investigate the varying dynamics between the transaction-based prices and LBP appraisal-based estimates. Furthermore, a margin of error examination investigates the distortion in LBP land appraisals, with an amended LBP presented to improve the accuracy of the current LBP method.FindingsDifferent influencing factors are identified to impact the actual market transaction prices and the LBP construction, leading to a large discrepancy in industrial land appraisals. A systematic problem is recognised that the construction of the LBP follows urban bid curve theory, whereas the land transaction prices do not, demonstrating that an urgent LBP update is needed to capture the market dynamics for industrial market.Practical implicationsThe paper sets out discrepancies in valuation accuracy surrounding the application of the LBP valuation approach in China. This has practical implications for valuers in terms of raising their awareness of the deficiencies in the approach and the pitfalls they need to guard against in their appraisals. It also has implications for developers and investors who rely on valuer appraisals to assess the viability of land purchases; hence, they need to express caution in the appraisal advice sought. Finally, the results demonstrate to the standard setters how they need to modify the LBP equations to better capture market dynamics.Originality/valueThe paper examines valuation accuracy in transitional economies, through valuation differentials between appraised price and the transacted price. The value of the work lies in the analysis of the fundamental differentials between market price and appraised value, which is of importance to investors/developers, practicing valuers, as well as government officials responsible for setting the valuation standards.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
33
期刊介绍: Fully refereed papers on practice and methodology in the UK, continental Western Europe, emerging markets of Eastern Europe, China, Australasia, Africa and the USA, in the following areas: ■Academic papers on the latest research, thinking and developments ■Law reports assessing new legislation ■Market data for a comprehensive review of current research ■Practice papers - a forum for the exchange of ideas and experiences
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