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Client influence or the valuer's behavior? An empirical study of listed companies' valuation in Taiwan 客户的影响还是评估师的行为?台湾上市公司估值之实证研究
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-10-2022-0069
Fong-Yao Chen, Michael Y. Mak
Purpose Valuers should independently assess market value. The purpose of this article is to analyze whether the valuation behavior remains independent when commissioned by publicly listed companies in Taiwan. Design/methodology/approach This study used both quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative data analysis was used to examine the estimated premium ratio and estimated divergent ratio with the independent sample t test and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. To complement and validate the quantitative analysis, open-ended questionnaires were conducted, providing additional insights into the research findings. Findings The results showed that there is a significant difference in estimated valuations commissioned by representatives of buyers and sellers, and the estimated premium ratios commissioned by representatives of buyers were higher than those of sellers. Furthermore, the open-ended questionnaires results indicate that these findings may be influenced by clients for less experienced appraisers. However, for senior appraisers, this is seen as an action to gain a better understanding of the valuation purpose and always within a reasonable price range. In addition, client influence is not a static factor; it may transform into the valuer's behavior as the appraiser's experience grows and deepens. Practical implications It is difficult to obtain valuation reports commissioned by representatives of both buyers and sellers for the same property transactions. In this study, data were obtained from the Market Observation Post-System (MOPS) in Taiwan. As valuation reports could not be obtained, estimated valuations and transaction prices are used to calculate estimated premium ratio and estimated divergent ratios. Originality/value Previous investigations of the client effect have been conducted using qualitative methods including questionnaire surveys, in-depth interviews and experimental design. However, these studies are subject to moral hazard. This study may be the first study that has access to data on valuations for both buyers and sellers in such a formal setting.
评估人员应独立评估市场价值。本文旨在分析台湾上市公司委托估值行为是否保持独立性。本研究采用了定量和定性两种方法。定量数据分析采用独立样本t检验和Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney检验对估计溢价比和估计发散比进行检验。为了补充和验证定量分析,进行了开放式问卷调查,为研究结果提供了额外的见解。结果表明,买卖双方委托的估价存在显著差异,买方委托的估价溢价比高于卖方委托的估价溢价比。此外,开放式问卷调查结果表明,这些发现可能会受到客户对经验不足的评估师的影响。然而,对于高级估价师来说,这被视为一种更好地理解估价目的的行动,并且总是在合理的价格范围内。此外,客户影响不是一个静态因素;随着评估师经验的增长和加深,它可能转变为评估师的行为。实际影响要取得由买卖双方代表就同一宗物业交易委托作出的估价报告是很困难的。本研究以台湾市场观察岗位制度(MOPS)为资料来源。由于无法获得估值报告,因此使用估计估值和交易价格来计算估计溢价比和估计分歧比。原创性/价值以往对客户效应的调查采用了问卷调查、深度访谈和实验设计等定性方法。然而,这些研究存在道德风险。这项研究可能是第一个在这种正式环境下获得买方和卖方估值数据的研究。
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引用次数: 0
The influence mechanism of real estate enterprises' status on debt default risk 房地产企业地位对债务违约风险的影响机制
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-05-2023-0048
Guangping Liu, Kexin Zhou, Xiangzheng Sun
Purpose The aim of this study is to analyze the influence mechanism of real estate enterprises' status on debt default risk and explore the heterogeneity effect of the characteristics of enterprises. Design/methodology/approach Against the background of the “three red lines” regulation of the financing of real estate enterprises and the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors select 123 real estate enterprises listed on China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares markets from the first quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022 as a research sample. The social network analysis method and Z-score financial risk early warning model are used to measure real estate enterprises' status and debt default risk. The authors construct a panel regression model to analyze how the status of real estate enterprises influences their debt default risk. Findings The results show that the status of real estate enterprises negatively and significantly affects their debt default risk. Economic policy uncertainty and financing constraints play negative moderating and mediating roles, respectively. Further research has found that the effect of real estate enterprises' status on debt default risk is characterized by heterogeneity in equity characteristics, i.e. it is significant in the sample of nonstate-owned enterprises but not in the sample of state-owned enterprises. Practical implications It is helpful for real estate enterprises to attach importance to the value of social networks, and the authors provide policy suggestions for real estate enterprises to constantly improve their risk management systems. Originality/value Using economic policy uncertainty as the moderating variable and financing constraints as the mediating variable, the authors analyze how the status of real estate enterprises influences debt default risk, which contributes to a better understanding of the formation of the debt default risk of real estate enterprises.
目的分析房地产企业地位对债务违约风险的影响机制,探讨企业特征的异质性效应。设计/方法/方法在房地产企业融资“三条红线”监管和新冠肺炎疫情的背景下,笔者选取了2021年第一季度至2022年第二季度在中国沪深a股上市的123家房地产企业作为研究样本。运用社会网络分析方法和Z-score财务风险预警模型对房地产企业状况和债务违约风险进行测度。本文构建了面板回归模型,分析了房地产企业经营状况对其债务违约风险的影响。研究结果表明,房地产企业的经营状况对其债务违约风险有显著负向影响。经济政策不确定性和融资约束分别发挥负向调节和中介作用。进一步研究发现,房地产企业地位对债务违约风险的影响在股权特征上具有异质性,即在非国有企业样本中显著,而在国有企业样本中不显著。现实意义有助于房地产企业重视社会网络的价值,并为房地产企业不断完善风险管理体系提供政策建议。本文以经济政策不确定性为调节变量,融资约束为中介变量,分析房地产企业地位对债务违约风险的影响,有助于更好地理解房地产企业债务违约风险的形成。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the predictive power of ANN and traditional regression models in real estate pricing: evidence from Prishtina 探讨人工神经网络和传统回归模型在房地产定价中的预测能力:来自普里什蒂纳的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-06-2023-0051
Visar Hoxha
Purpose The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices. Design/methodology/approach The present study uses a dataset of 1,468 real estate transactions from 2020 to 2022, obtained from the Department of Property Taxes of Republic of Kosovo. Beginning with a fundamental linear regression model, the study tackles the question of overlooked nonlinearity, employing a similar strategy like Peterson and Flanagan (2009) and McCluskey et al . (2012), whereby ANN's predictions are incorporated as an additional regressor within the ordinary least squares (OLS) model. Findings The research findings underscore the superior fit of semi-log and double-log models over the OLS model, while the ANN model shows moderate performance, contrary to the conventional conviction of ANN's superior predictive power. This is notably divergent from the prevailing belief about ANN's superior predictive power, shedding light on the potential overestimation of ANN's efficacy. Practical implications The study accentuates the importance of embracing diverse models in property price prediction, debunking the notion of the ubiquitous applicability of ANN models. The research outcomes carry substantial ramifications for both scholars and professionals engaged in property valuation. Originality/value Distinctively, this research pioneers the comparative analysis of diverse models, including ANN, in the setting of a developing country's capital, hence providing a fresh perspective to their effectiveness in property price prediction.
本研究的目的是检验线性、非线性和人工神经网络(ann)在预测房地产价格方面的效率。设计/方法/方法本研究使用了从科索沃共和国财产税部门获得的2020年至2022年1468笔房地产交易的数据集。从一个基本的线性回归模型开始,该研究解决了被忽视的非线性问题,采用了类似于Peterson和Flanagan(2009)以及McCluskey等人的策略。(2012),其中人工神经网络的预测作为普通最小二乘(OLS)模型中的附加回归量被纳入。研究结果表明,半对数和双对数模型的拟合优于OLS模型,而人工神经网络模型的拟合效果一般,这与传统的人工神经网络具有优越的预测能力的观点相反。这与普遍认为的人工神经网络具有优越的预测能力明显不同,揭示了对人工神经网络功效的潜在高估。该研究强调了在房地产价格预测中采用多种模型的重要性,揭穿了人工神经网络模型普遍适用性的概念。研究成果对从事房地产估价的学者和专业人士都有重大影响。值得注意的是,本研究率先在发展中国家首都的背景下对包括人工神经网络在内的各种模型进行了比较分析,从而为其在房地产价格预测中的有效性提供了一个新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Real Estate Insights Back to the basics of sustainability 回到可持续发展的基础
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2023-0076
Larry Wofford
Purpose Starting with the notion that each building has an overall life cycle, the paper uses building-based and investment-based life cycles to identify likely decision points for renovations, including sustainability enhancements, and identifies patterns in sustainability decisions. Design/methodology/approach This real estate insights paper considers how commercial real estate and the built environment it creates, owns and manages impacts the sustainability of urban areas and the globe. By combining building-based and investment-based life cycles, it is possible to develop a unique “sustainability enhancement quotient” for individual buildings and the built environment for an urban area over a given time interval. Findings Using two life cycles allows the identification and likelihood of sustainability decision points. The same life cycles and decision points are used to consider the likely extent of such renovations. This is in addition to continuous consideration of renovations producing economic benefits in the form of lower operating costs and quick return of capital. Research limitations/implications Useful for investment decision-making and policy design and implementation. Practical implications This is a useful tool for public and private decision making. It is suggested that the sustainability enhancement quotient may be used to design and implement policies and decisions maximising the likelihood of sustainability enhancement in an urban area's built environment. Social implications Provides a framework for more effective sustainability decisions and public policy. The public-private interplay inherent in every building is emphasised throughout. Originality/value Original combination of existing tools.
从每个建筑都有一个整体生命周期的概念开始,本文使用基于建筑和基于投资的生命周期来确定可能的改造决策点,包括可持续性增强,并确定可持续性决策的模式。设计/方法/方法这篇房地产洞察论文考虑了商业房地产及其创造、拥有和管理的建筑环境如何影响城市地区和全球的可持续性。通过结合以建筑为基础和以投资为基础的生命周期,有可能在给定的时间间隔内为单个建筑和城市地区的建筑环境开发出独特的“可持续性增强商”。使用两个生命周期可以识别和可能性的可持续性决策点。使用相同的生命周期和决策点来考虑此类翻新的可能程度。除此之外,还要不断考虑以较低的运营成本和快速的资本回报形式产生经济效益的改造。研究局限/启示对投资决策和政策设计与实施有用。这是公共和私人决策的有用工具。可持续性增强商可用于设计和实施政策和决策,最大限度地提高城市地区建筑环境可持续性增强的可能性。社会影响为更有效的可持续性决策和公共政策提供框架。每个建筑中固有的公私相互作用贯穿始终。原创性/价值现有工具的原创性组合。
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引用次数: 0
The role of multi-family properties in hedging pension liability risk: long-run evidence 多户房产在对冲养老金负债风险中的作用:长期证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-04-2023-0035
Martin Hoesli, Louis Johner, Jon Lekander
Purpose Using data spanning 145 years for Sweden, the authors investigate the benefits of holding multi-family properties for investors who aim to hedge wage growth. Design/methodology/approach The authors assess the risk-adjusted excess return that results from adding multi-family properties to a mixed-asset portfolio that aims to track wage growth. The authors also analyse the macroeconomic determinants of asset returns. Finally, the authors test whether a causal relationship exists between the growth rate of real wages and that of real net operating income. Findings The benefits from holding multi-family properties are the greatest for low-risk allocation approaches. For more risky strategies, the role of real estate is more muted, and it varies greatly over time. Holding real estate was most beneficial during the first two decades of the 21st century. Multi-family properties are found to be the only asset class to be positively related to wage growth. The authors show that the net operating income acts as the transmission channel between wages and property returns. Practical implications The paper assesses whether the growing interest of pension funds for multi-family properties is warranted in the context of a portfolio that aims to track wage growth. Originality/value Using long term data makes it possible to use a rolling windows approach and hence to consider multiple outcomes for an allocation strategy over a typical investment horizon. This permits to assess the dispersion of performance across several periods rather than just one as is commonly done in the literature. The results show that the conclusions that would be drawn from looking at the past two or three decades of data differ substantially from those for earlier time periods.
使用瑞典145年的数据,作者调查了持有多户房产对旨在对冲工资增长的投资者的好处。作者评估了将多户住宅加入旨在跟踪工资增长的混合资产组合所产生的风险调整后的超额回报。作者还分析了资产回报的宏观经济决定因素。最后,作者检验了实际工资增长率与实际净营业收入增长率之间是否存在因果关系。研究发现,低风险配置方式下,持有多户房产的收益最大。对于风险更高的策略,房地产的作用更弱,而且随着时间的推移变化很大。在21世纪的头20年里,持有房地产是最有利的。研究发现,多户住宅是唯一与工资增长呈正相关的资产类别。研究表明,净营业收入是工资与财产回报之间的传导渠道。本文评估了在旨在跟踪工资增长的投资组合背景下,养老基金对多户房产日益增长的兴趣是否有保证。独创性/价值使用长期数据可以使用滚动窗口方法,从而在典型的投资范围内考虑配置策略的多种结果。这使得我们可以评估业绩在几个时期的分散程度,而不是像文献中通常所做的那样只评估一个时期。研究结果表明,从过去二三十年的数据中得出的结论与早期的数据有很大的不同。
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引用次数: 0
The performance of non-listed opportunity real estate funds in China 非上市机会型房地产基金在中国的表现
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-09-2021-0075
Graeme Newell, Muhammad Jufri Marzuki, Martin Hoesli, Rose Neng Lai
Purpose Opportunity real estate funds are an important style of real estate investing for institutional investors seeking nonlisted real estate exposure. Importantly, institutional investors have sought exposure to the China real estate market, often via opportunity real estate funds. This has been by a pure China opportunity real estate fund (100% China opportunity real estate) or by a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund where China opportunity real estate was part of this pan-Asia opportunity real estate portfolio. Using two bespoke China opportunity real estate indices developed by the authors, this paper aims to assess the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of China opportunity real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio over 2008–2020. It also highlights critical issues for institutional investors going forward to factor into their real estate investment decision-making for effective China real estate exposure. Design/methodology/approach This paper develops two bespoke China opportunity real estate fund performance indices to assess the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of China opportunity real estate funds in a mixed-asset portfolio over 2008–2020. An asset allocation diagram is used to assess the role of China opportunity real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio via both the non-listed and listed real estate investment channels. Findings Over 2008–2020, China opportunity real estate exposure via pan-Asia opportunity real estate funds were seen to outperform pure China opportunity real estate funds. In both formats, China opportunity real estate funds were seen to have a significant role in a China mixed-asset portfolio across most of the portfolio risk spectrum; particularly compared to listed real estate exposure in China. On-going issues regarding real estate risk management in China will take on increased importance for institutional investors seeking China real estate exposure. Practical implications Opportunity real estate funds are an important style of real estate investing, often used by institutional investors to gain non-listed real estate exposure in a developing real estate market. This style of real estate investing has been popular with institutional investors seeking exposure to China real estate as part of the China economic growth dynamic. The results of this research highlight the importance of opportunity real estate investing in China, both via a pure China opportunity real estate fund and via a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund. Based on this empirical analysis, China opportunity real estate exposure is seen to be more effective via a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund than a 100% China opportunity real estate fund. A range of practical China real estate investment issues are also highlighted for the effective delivery of China real estate exposure for institutional investors going forward; this particularly relates to the on-going risk management for rea
机会型房地产基金是机构投资者寻求非上市房地产投资的一种重要投资方式。重要的是,机构投资者一直在寻求投资中国房地产市场,通常是通过机会房地产基金。这是由一个纯粹的中国机会房地产基金(100%的中国机会房地产)或泛亚机会房地产基金,其中中国机会房地产是泛亚机会房地产投资组合的一部分。本文利用作者开发的两个定制中国机会房地产指数,旨在评估2008-2020年中国机会房地产在混合资产组合中的风险调整绩效和投资组合多元化收益。这也凸显了机构投资者未来在进行房地产投资决策时需要考虑的关键问题,以获得有效的中国房地产敞口。设计/方法/方法本文开发了两个定制的中国机会房地产基金绩效指数,以评估2008-2020年中国机会房地产基金在混合资产组合中的风险调整后绩效和投资组合多元化效益。通过资产配置图,通过非上市和上市房地产投资渠道评估中国机会房地产在混合资产组合中的作用。2008-2020年期间,泛亚机会房地产基金对中国机会房地产的投资表现优于单纯的中国机会房地产基金。在这两种形式中,中国机遇房地产基金在中国混合资产投资组合的大部分风险范围中都扮演着重要角色;特别是与中国上市房地产的风险敞口相比。对于寻求中国房地产投资的机构投资者来说,中国房地产风险管理的持续问题将变得越来越重要。机遇型房地产基金是房地产投资的一种重要形式,是机构投资者在发展中房地产市场获得非上市房地产投资机会的工具。这种房地产投资方式受到机构投资者的欢迎,他们希望投资中国房地产,将其作为中国经济增长动态的一部分。本研究的结果强调了在中国投资机会房地产的重要性,无论是通过纯粹的中国机会房地产基金还是通过泛亚机会房地产基金。基于这一实证分析,通过泛亚机会房地产基金投资中国机会房地产比100%投资中国机会房地产基金更有效。本文还重点介绍了一系列实际的中国房地产投资问题,以便为未来的机构投资者有效地提供中国房地产风险敞口;这尤其涉及到中国房地产投资的持续风险管理。本文首次对中国机遇地产的风险调整绩效及其在混合资产组合中的作用进行实证研究。利用作者开发的定制中国机会房地产基金指数,本研究使中国机会房地产投资决策在机构投资者的投资组合中的战略作用得到了经验验证,更加明智和实用。它还强调了未来中国房地产风险管理各个方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Stochastic framework for carbon price risk estimation of real estate: a Markov switching GARCH simulation approach 房地产碳价格风险估计的随机框架:一种马尔可夫切换GARCH模拟方法
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-12-2021-0104
Cay Oertel, E. Kovaleva, Werner Gleißner, S. Bienert
PurposeThe risk management of transitory risk for real assets has gained large interest especially in the past 10 years among researchers as well as market participants. In addition, the recent regulatory tightening in the EU urges financial market participants to disclose sustainability-related financial risk, without providing any methodological guidance. The purpose of the study is the identification and explanation of the methodological limitations in the field of transitory risk modeling and the logic step to advance toward a stochastic approach.Design/methodology/approachThe study reviews the literature on deterministic risk modeling of transitory risk exposure for real estate highlighting the heavy methodological limitations. Based on this, the necessity to model transitory risk stochastically is described. In order to illustrate the stochastic risk modeling of transitory risk, the empirical study uses a Markov Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model to quantify the carbon price risk exposure of real assets.FindingsThe authors find academic as well as regulatory urgency to model sustainability risk stochastically from a conceptual point of view. The own empirical results show the superior goodness of fit of the multiregime Markov Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in comparison to their single regime peer. Lastly, carbon price risk simulations show the increasing exposure across time.Practical implicationsThe practical implication is the motivation of the stochastic modeling of sustainability-related risk factors for real assets to improve the quality of applied risk management for institutional investment managers.Originality/valueThe present study extends the existing literature on sustainability risk for real estate essentially by connecting the transitory risk management of real estate and stochastic risk modeling.
在过去的10年里,研究人员和市场参与者对实物资产的临时风险管理产生了很大的兴趣。此外,欧盟最近的监管收紧敦促金融市场参与者披露与可持续性相关的金融风险,但没有提供任何方法指导。该研究的目的是识别和解释暂态风险建模领域的方法局限性,以及向随机方法推进的逻辑步骤。设计/方法/途径本研究回顾了关于房地产短期风险暴露的确定性风险建模的文献,强调了方法上的严重局限性。在此基础上,阐述了建立暂态风险随机模型的必要性。为了说明临时风险的随机风险建模,实证研究采用马尔可夫切换广义自回归条件异方差模型对实物资产的碳价格风险暴露进行量化。研究结果作者发现,从概念角度随机建立可持续性风险模型的学术和监管紧迫性。实证结果表明,多区间马尔可夫切换广义自回归条件异方差的拟合优度优于单区间马尔可夫切换广义自回归条件异方差。最后,碳价格风险模拟显示,随着时间的推移,风险敞口不断增加。实际意义实际意义是实体资产可持续性相关风险因素随机建模的动机,以提高机构投资经理应用风险管理的质量。独创性/价值本研究主要通过将房地产的暂时性风险管理与随机风险建模联系起来,扩展了现有的房地产可持续性风险研究文献。
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引用次数: 2
Development in a state of climate change: an Australian case study of government response 气候变化状态下的发展:澳大利亚政府应对措施的案例研究
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-02-09 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-11-2021-0090
L. Cradduck, G. Warren-Myers
Purpose This research seeks to understand the potential impact to investors from government responses to climate change risk, as reflected in changes to planning processes made after significant weather events.Design/methodology/approach The research examines the land planning responses within a select local government authority (“LGA”) area following four significant weather events, in order to identify any changes made, and the impact on future development proposals. The LGA selected is the Central Coast Council, which is a coastal LGA in the Australian State of New South Wales. The research engaged with the publicly accessible records available on the Central Coast Council, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other websites; and extant literature.Findings The research reveals that some adjustments were made by the Central Coast Council, and or the State government, to relevant laws, policies and processes following these events. These changes, however, tended to focus on imposing additional requirements on future development applications, rather than on requiring changes to current structures, or prohibiting further development works.Research limitations/implications The research has three limitations: (1) land law in Australia varies, as each State and Territory, and LGA, has specific laws, policies and processes; (2) as laws and policies are subject to change, it was necessary to select points in time at which to engage with those laws and processes; and (3) COVID-19's impact on domestic Australian travel [the authors could not travel interstate] meant only documents available on the Internet were considered, however, not all documents relating to development; or changes to laws and processes were easily accessible online. As the research focussed on one case study area, this may limit the applicability of the results to other areas. However, as extreme events are international, the related issues are a concern in all areas.Practical implications This research confirms the results of other extant research, which observed that some risks cannot be properly mitigated, such that any development in an at-risk area remains at risk. It also identifies that more current, accurate and publicly accessible data are required to enable investors to more easily and accurately identify all risks affecting a property.Originality/value The research provides a snapshot of one LGA's response to the physical risks arising from climate change events. As investors and other organisations integrate and build up their analysis of climate risks to their portfolios and organisations, governments become more aware of the long-term effects of climate change and consistently with extant research; this research indicates that a greater awareness is required of current risks and action to manage the short-term effects and cost challenges, in addition to the long-term adaptation requirements.
目的本研究旨在了解政府应对气候变化风险对投资者的潜在影响,这反映在重大天气事件后规划过程的变化中。设计/方法/方法该研究考察了四次重大天气事件后选定的地方政府机构(“LGA”)区域内的土地规划响应,以确定所做的任何变化以及对未来发展提案的影响。选定的LGA是中央海岸委员会,它是澳大利亚新南威尔士州的一个沿海LGA。这项研究涉及中央海岸委员会、澳大利亚气象局和其他网站上的公开记录;以及现存文献。调查结果研究表明,在这些事件发生后,中央海岸委员会和/或州政府对相关法律、政策和程序进行了一些调整。然而,这些变化往往侧重于对未来的开发应用程序施加额外的要求,而不是要求对当前结构进行更改,或禁止进一步的开发工作。研究局限性/影响研究有三个局限性:(1)澳大利亚的土地法各不相同,因为每个州和地区以及LGA都有具体的法律、政策和程序;(2) 由于法律和政策可能会发生变化,因此有必要选择参与这些法律和程序的时间点;(3)新冠肺炎对澳大利亚国内旅行的影响[作者不能跨州旅行]意味着只考虑互联网上提供的文件,但不是所有与发展有关的文件;或者法律和程序的变更可以很容易地在线访问。由于研究集中在一个案例研究领域,这可能会限制结果对其他领域的适用性。然而,由于极端事件是国际性的,相关问题在所有领域都令人关切。实际意义这项研究证实了其他现存研究的结果,这些研究观察到,一些风险无法得到适当缓解,因此风险地区的任何发展都面临风险。它还指出,需要更多最新、准确和公开的数据,使投资者能够更容易、准确地识别影响房地产的所有风险。原创性/价值该研究提供了一个LGA对气候变化事件引起的物理风险的反应快照。随着投资者和其他组织将其对气候风险的分析整合到投资组合和组织中,政府越来越意识到气候变化的长期影响,并与现有研究保持一致;这项研究表明,除了长期适应要求外,还需要对当前的风险和行动有更大的认识,以应对短期影响和成本挑战。
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引用次数: 1
Editorial – Property investment – What is it worth? 社论-房地产投资-它值多少钱?
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-02-09 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-03-2022-193
N. French
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引用次数: 3
Causal relationships between the price-to-rent ratio and macroeconomic factors: a UK perspective 租售比与宏观经济因素之间的因果关系:英国视角
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-02-02 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2021-0068
D. Lo, M. McCord, P. Davis, J. McCord, Martin Haran
PurposeHouse price-to-rent (P-t-R) ratios are among the most widely used measures of housing market conditions. Given the theoretical and apparent bidirectional, causal relationships and imbalances between the housing market, broader economy and financial market determinants, it is important to understand the relationship between macro- and micro-economic characteristics in relation to the P-t-R ratio to enhance the understanding of housing market dynamics. This paper studies the joint dynamics and persistence of house prices and rents and examines the temporal interactions of the P-t-R ratio and economic and financial determinants.Design/methodology/approachThe authors examine the lead–lag relationships between the P-t-R ratios and a spectrum of macroeconomic variables using cointegration and causality methods, initially at the aggregate position and also across housing types within the Northern Ireland housing market to establish whether there are subtle differences in how various housing segments react to changes in economic activity and market fundamentals.FindingsThe findings reveal price switching dynamics and some very distinct long- and short-run relationships between macroeconomic and financial indicators and the P-t-R ratios across the various housing segments. The results exhibit monetary supply, foreign exchange markets and the stock market to be important drivers of the P-t-R ratio, with P-t-R movements seemingly tied, or are in tandem, with the overall economy, particularly with the construction sector.Practical implicationsThe study shows that the P-t-R ratio can be used as an early measure for establishing the effects of macroprudential policy changes and how these may manifest across housing tiers and quality, which can further act as a signal for preventing or at least mitigating future irrational price cyclicity. These insights serve to inform housing and economic policy and macroprudential policy design, principally within lending policy and the effect of regulatory interventions and further enhance the understanding of the P-t-R ratio on housing market structure and dynamics.Originality/valueThis study is the first in the housing literature that examines the causal relationships between the P-t-R ratio and macroeconomic activity at the sub-market level. It investigates whether and how money supply, inflation, foreign exchange markets, general economic productivity and other important macroeconomic factors interact with the pricing of different property types over time.
目的房价租金比是衡量住房市场状况最广泛使用的指标之一。鉴于住房市场、更广泛的经济和金融市场决定因素之间存在理论上和明显的双向因果关系和不平衡,理解宏观和微观经济特征与P-t-R比率之间的关系对于增强对住房市场动态的理解很重要。本文研究了房价和租金的共同动态和持续性,并考察了P-t-R比率与经济和金融决定因素的时间相互作用。设计/方法论/方法作者使用协整和因果关系方法研究了P-t-R比率与一系列宏观经济变量之间的超前-滞后关系,最初是在北爱尔兰住房市场的总头寸以及不同住房类型,以确定不同住房部门对经济活动和市场基本面变化的反应是否存在细微差异。研究结果揭示了价格转换动态,以及宏观经济和金融指标与不同住房部门的P-t-R比率之间的一些非常明显的长期和短期关系。研究结果表明,货币供应、外汇市场和股票市场是P-t-R比率的重要驱动因素,P-t-R的变动似乎与整体经济,特别是建筑业密切相关。实际含义研究表明,P-t-R比率可以作为确定宏观审慎政策变化影响的早期指标,以及这些变化如何在住房等级和质量中表现出来,这可以进一步作为预防或至少缓解未来非理性价格周期性的信号。这些见解有助于为住房和经济政策以及宏观审慎政策设计提供信息,主要是在贷款政策和监管干预的效果范围内,并进一步增强对P-t-R比率对住房市场结构和动态的理解。独创性/价值这项研究是住房文献中第一次在次级市场层面考察P-t-R比率与宏观经济活动之间的因果关系。它调查了货币供应量、通货膨胀、外汇市场、总体经济生产力和其他重要的宏观经济因素是否以及如何随着时间的推移与不同房地产类型的定价相互作用。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Journal of Property Investment & Finance
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