Sino-Myanmar Relations in the Aftermath of the February 2021 Coup in Naypyidaw: Continuation and Change in China’s Myanmar Policy

Abstract:This article examines the realpolitik calculations behind China’s responses to General Min Aung Hlaing’s February 2021 coup d’etat in Myanmar. By seeking to play both sides of the unrest in Myanmar, Beijing hopes to ensure that it can count on a set of regional allies to serve China’s interests. By simultaneously strengthening friendly relations with the Tatmadaw regime and the ethnic minority communities and pro-reformist movements in the country, Beijing can maintain a façade of friendship with the junta, while concurrently strengthening Beijing’s influence over Myanmar’s internal political forces. This enables Beijing to signal that it would be unwise for the Tatmadaw to step out of line away from China’s interests.