转型的悲剧:发展、恶化、衰败。匈牙利案例,1990-2020

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS Central European Business Review Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI:10.18267/J.CEBR.280
Lajos Bokros
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引用次数: 1

摘要

这篇文章是关于匈牙利在过去30年的经济和政治发展。它可以被整齐地分为三个时期,几乎完美地与日历上的十年相吻合。共产主义制度崩溃后,第一个时期是辉煌的十年发展:前两届政府实施了成功转型所需的几乎所有必不可少的结构性改革。1995年金融稳定后,实施了一贯的宏观经济政策,导致出口和投资驱动的可持续经济增长。接下来的十年带来了恶化:改革停滞不前,迅速转向消费主导和债务推动的增长,导致双重赤字,到大衰退(Great Recession)时,几乎引发了主权债务违约。在短暂的金融稳定成功之后,民粹主义-民族主义政府于2010年上台。十年的衰退开始了:结构性改革的逆转、国有化、垄断、保护主义、扭曲市场的税收和补贴、腐败的寡头控制国家,以及不一致的宏观经济政策。此外,维克多·欧尔班(Viktor Orban)自封的“不自由政权”摧毁了法治和所有代表民主制衡的机构。腐败上升到了政府官方政策的高度。在欧盟巨额补贴的帮助下,该政权在2014-2019年全球经济繁荣期间保持了财政平衡并实现了显着增长。然而,鉴于国内经济非贸易部门的私人投资和生产率仍然相当低,与西方效率和生活水平的真正趋同仍然难以捉摸。今天,匈牙利是一个典型的例子,它的经济被寡头和专制政权推入了典型的中等收入陷阱。它还证明,转型改革都是可逆的;制度是脆弱的。恢复法治和民主似乎是趋同与发展不可或缺的先决条件。
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The Tragedy of Transition: Development, Deterioration, Decay. The Case of Hungary, 1990-2020
The essay is about the economic and political development of Hungary in the last 30 years. It can be neatly divided into three periods which coincide with the calendar decades almost perfectly. After the collapse of the communist system, the first period constituted a glorious decade in development: the first two governments implemented almost all indispensable structural reforms required for a successful transition. After the financial stabilization in 1995, a consistent macroeconomic policy was applied, leading to export and investment-driven, hence sustainable economic growth. The next decade brought deterioration: reforms were stalled, and a sharp turn to consumption-led and debt-fuelled growth resulted in twin deficits which, by the time of the Great Recession, almost triggered a sovereign debt default. After a short period of successful financial stabilization, a populist-nationalist government came to power in 2010. A decade of decay set in: reversal of structural reforms, nationalization, monopolization, protectionism, market-distorting taxation and subsidization, state capture by a corrupt oligarchy, together with inconsistent macroeconomic policy. In addition, the self-styled „illiberal regime” of Viktor Orban demolished the rule of law and all institutions representing checks and balances in a democracy. Corruption was elevated to the level of official government policy. With the help of the huge amount of subsidies coming from the EU, the regime maintained financial equilibrium and achieved significant growth during the time of global boom between 2014-2019. However, given the fact that private investments and productivity stay rather low in the non-tradable sector of the domestic economy, real convergence to Western efficiency and living standards remain elusive. Today Hungary constitutes a primary example of an economy pushed into a typical middle-income trap by its oligarchic and authoritarian regime. It also proves that transition reforms are all reversible; institutions are fragile. Restoration of the rule of law and democracy seems to be an indispensable prerequisite for convergence and development.
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来源期刊
Central European Business Review
Central European Business Review Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
7.70%
发文量
27
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