尼日利亚effurun-warri 25兆瓦太阳能光伏发电系统的技术经济评估

Mushafau Oshundairo, J. Oyekale
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摘要

本文旨在对尼日利亚埃富伦-瓦里25兆瓦太阳能光伏发电系统进行技术经济可行性评估。系统顾问模型(SAM)软件用于设计和模拟用于发电的太阳能光伏组件。此外,SAM软件中内置的标准和验证模型被用于分析系统的技术经济性能和能量损失。结果表明,光伏系统设计中考虑的能量损失程度对系统性能有显著影响。对于本研究中评估的25 MW系统,1月份的月发电量最高,为3.9 GWh,7月份的最低,为1.9 GWh。此外,观察到光伏系统产生的年总能量随着系统老化而贬值,预计在系统运行25年后,约12%的初始年发电量将损失。获得的容量系数(12.1%)和性能比(0.75)表明,目前设计的光伏系统不足以满足尼日利亚埃富伦-瓦里的能源需求。此外,该系统的平准化电力成本(LCOE)为0.65美分/kWh,比尼日利亚南部目前的电力价格高出约85%。此外,该工厂获得了负的净现值(NPV),所有这些都表明在系统的使用寿命内投资成本不会被抵消,因此该项目在当前设计中不会盈利。
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TECHNO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF A 25 MW SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN EFFURUN-WARRI, NIGERIA
This paper was aimed at the techno-economic feasibility assessment of a 25 MW solar photovoltaic (PV) system for electricity generation in Effurun-Warri, Nigeria. The system advisor model (SAM) software was used to design and simulate the solar PV modules for power generation. Furthermore, the standard and validated models inbuilt in the SAM software were employed to analyze the techno-economic performance of the system and the energy losses. Results showed that the extent of energy losses considered in the design of the PV system had significant effects on system performance. For the 25 MW system assessed in this study, the highest monthly energy production was obtained at 3.9 GWh in January and the lowest at 1.9 GWh in July. Also, the total annual energy produced by the PV system was observed to depreciate as the system ages, with about 12% of the initial annual energy production expected to be lost after 25 years of system operation. The obtained capacity factor (12.1 %) and the performance ratio (0.75) revealed that the PV system in its current design would be inadequate to match the energy demand profile of Effurun-Warri, Nigeria. Additionally, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was obtained as 0.65 cents/kWh for the system, which is about 85% higher than the current price of electrical energy in Southern Nigeria. Moreover, a negative net present value (NPV) was obtained for the plant, all indicating that the cost of investment would not be offset during the lifetime of the system, and the project would therefore not be profitable in its current design.
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