有效市场假说与印尼证券交易所LQ 45指数的市场异常

H. Malini
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引用次数: 13

摘要

本文试图考察有效市场假说的有效性以及日历效应对印尼股市的影响。首先,本文讨论了EMH的类型以及有关该主题的现有文献。本研究以印尼证券交易所LQ 45指数所列21只股票为样本,采用Run检验、Kruskal-Wallis检验、Mann-Whitney检验等非参数检验方法,分别采用序列相关检验、单向方差检验和独立t检验两个样本。基于本文的检验结果,可以得出结论,在IDX的LQ 45指数中存在弱形式有效市场,而在IDX指数中不存在周日效应和年月效应。总之,观察到样本公司的股价对未来价格的影响非常微弱,投资者无法通过使用历史股价数据来获得利润,因为当前股价已经反映了过去股价数据的影响。
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Efficient Market Hypothesis and Market Anomalies of LQ 45 Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange
The paper attempts to investigate the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the existence of calendar effect on Indonesia Stock Exchange Market. Initially, this paper discusses types of EMH also the literature available regarding this topic. The sample of research is twenty one securities listed in LQ 45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Market (IDX), this paper applies non parametric tests which are Run test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney test  parametric test which are series correlation test, One-way Anova test and independent t-test two sample. Based on the results of the test of this paper, it can be concluded that Weak Form Efficient Market exists in LQ 45 Index of IDX while Day of the Week Effect and Month of the Year Effect are not found to exist in LQ 45 Index of IDX. In conclusion, it is observed that the effect of stock prices for the sample companies on future prices is very meager and an investor cannot reap profits by using the historical share price data as the current share prices already reflect the effect of past share prices data.
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7 weeks
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