The Dynamic Relationship between Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Gross Domestic Product: Evidence from Colonial Malaya and Post-independence Malaysia

Abstract:Using a panel cointegration approach, this study examines the relationship between aggregate consumption and GDP in colonial Malaya (1900–39) and post-independence Malaysia (1970–2009). The findings suggest that private consumption and GDP are cointegrated across the two forty-year periods, indicating a stable relationship in the long run. This is significant as the two periods are completely bipolar in terms of economic structure, stage of development and economic management. The vector error-correction models reveal that adjustment to long-run equilibrium is achieved through changes in both consumption and GDP, though the response of GDP to disequilibrium is stronger. Cointegration regressions of DOLS and FMOLS are used to estimate the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) between the two periods.