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The Vulnerability of Jobs to Mobility Restrictions: Malaysia's Experience during the COVID-19 Pandemic 就业易受流动性限制:马来西亚在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间的经验
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-3e
A. A. Rahman, A. Jasmin, A. Schmillen
Abstract:Using the mobility restrictions implemented by Malaysia during the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, this paper relies on detailed data on employment patterns and on the possibility to work from home and without physical proximity to estimate the extent and distribution of jobs most vulnerable to mobility restrictions. It finds that about 64.5 per cent of jobs in Malaysia cannot be performed from home, after adjusting for Internet access, while about 50.9 per cent of jobs require high levels of physical proximity. These are the jobs that are most vulnerable to strict mobility restrictions, such as those imposed during the pandemic. Workers most at risk are primarily those with relatively low education, low level of income and advanced or very young age. Jobs in less developed regions of Malaysia are also particularly vulnerable. Against this backdrop, the paper argues that Malaysia's experience during the COVID-19 pandemic provides some vital lessons in supporting those who are most vulnerable to job losses during mobility restrictions. These lessons include improving the targeting of cash transfers, scaling up wage subsidies in supporting worker retention and hiring and leveraging upskilling/reskilling initiatives with a focus on non-routine cognitive analytical and interpersonal skills.
摘要:本文以新冠肺炎大流行期间马来西亚实施的流动限制为案例研究,根据就业模式和在家工作和无物理距离的可能性的详细数据,估计最容易受到流动限制的工作的范围和分布。调查发现,经过互联网接入调整后,马来西亚约64.5%的工作无法在家完成,而约50.9%的工作需要高度的物理距离。这些工作最容易受到严格的流动限制,比如疫情期间实施的流动限制。风险最大的工人主要是那些教育程度相对较低、收入水平较低、年龄较大或很小的人。马来西亚欠发达地区的工作也特别脆弱。在这种背景下,该论文认为,马来西亚在新冠肺炎大流行期间的经验为支持那些在行动限制期间最容易失业的人提供了一些重要的教训。这些经验教训包括改进现金转移的目标,增加工资补贴以支持留住和雇佣工人,并利用技能提升/再技能提升举措,重点是非常规的认知分析和人际交往技能。
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引用次数: 1
Avoiding the Resource Curse: Lessons from Indonesia 避免资源诅咒:印尼的经验教训
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-3a
Hal C. Hill, D. Pasaribu
Abstract:Natural resources—blessing or curse? Indonesia provides an excellent case study for an examination of this question. It is a major commodity exporter; the fourth most populous country in the world; and the world's largest archipelagic state with huge mineral, forest and maritime resources. Indonesia also has three distinctive features that are particularly relevant for such a study. First, with the exception of the Asian Financial and COVID-19 crises, it has had at least moderately strong economic performance for the past half-century. This distinguishes it from the majority of resource-rich developing countries, and therefore there are lessons to be learnt from its management of these boom and bust episodes, particularly the latter. Second, Indonesia has experienced two rather different resource booms—the first based mainly on oil and gas in the 1970s and the second based primarily on coal, palm oil and gas over the years 2005–11. The economic, social and environmental effects of these two booms have differed significantly. Third, the country experienced major regime change in 1998–99, from the centralized, authoritarian Soeharto regime in 1966–98, which presided over the first boom, to the subsequent democratic, decentralized regime during the second boom. The very different political and institutional arrangements had important implications for the management of the boom and its distributional effects. We examine these issues in a comparative context, employing as reference points two very large natural resource exporters, Brazil and Nigeria, and Malaysia, a smaller, more dynamic Southeast Asian comparator.
摘要:自然资源是福还是祸?印度尼西亚为审查这个问题提供了一个极好的案例研究。它是一个主要的商品出口国;世界第四人口大国;以及世界上最大的群岛国家,拥有巨大的矿产、森林和海洋资源。印度尼西亚还有三个独特的特点,这些特点与这项研究特别相关。首先,除了亚洲金融危机和新冠肺炎危机之外,过去半个世纪,它的经济表现至少适度强劲。这使它有别于大多数资源丰富的发展中国家,因此,它可以从这些繁荣和萧条时期的管理中吸取教训,尤其是后者。其次,印度尼西亚经历了两次截然不同的资源繁荣——第一次主要基于20世纪70年代的石油和天然气,第二次主要基于2005-2001年的煤炭、棕榈油和天然气。这两次繁荣对经济、社会和环境的影响差异很大。第三,该国在1998-2009年经历了重大的政权更迭,从1966年至1998年主持第一次繁荣的中央集权、独裁的索哈托政权,到随后的第二次繁荣期间的民主、分权政权。截然不同的政治和体制安排对繁荣及其分配效应的管理具有重要影响。我们在比较的背景下研究这些问题,以巴西和尼日利亚这两个非常大的自然资源出口国,以及马来西亚作为一个较小、更有活力的东南亚比较国作为参考点。
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引用次数: 0
Do Exports from Developing Economies Still Matter in Global Value Chains? Evidence from Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam 发展中经济体的出口在全球价值链中仍然重要吗?证据来自马来西亚、泰国和越南
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-3d
Woocheol Lee
Abstract:Amid ever-growing global value chains (GVCs), a major controversial topic relates to the extent to which developing economies benefit from participating in such value chains. To measure these gains, this paper examines data pertaining to value-added in exports from three Southeast Asian economies—Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The study estimates the sectoral income elasticities of the export demand of each country over the period 1980–2017, revealing that the highest income elasticities are observed in low value-adding sectors such as primary products, resource-based goods and low-tech industries. This implies that the three countries have been involved in simple and not high-skill tasks within GVCs. The paper also examines the sectoral domestic share of value-added (DVA) and foreign share of value-added (FVA) of exports of the three economies using the OECD Trade in Value-added (TiVA) database over the period 2005–15. We find that DVA in the medium- and high-tech industries that add greater value is smaller than FVA in all three countries. Overall, these results suggest that developing nations need to step up their participation in GVCs through process and/or function upgrading.
摘要:随着全球价值链(GVCs)的不断发展,发展中经济体从参与这种价值链中获益的程度是一个主要的争议话题。为了衡量这些收益,本文分析了三个东南亚经济体——马来西亚、泰国和越南的出口增加值数据。该研究估计了1980年至2017年期间各国出口需求的部门收入弹性,结果显示,初级产品、资源型产品和低技术产业等低附加值部门的收入弹性最高。这意味着这三个国家在全球价值链中参与了简单且不需要高技能的任务。本文还利用经合组织增值贸易(TiVA)数据库研究了2005 - 2015年期间三个经济体出口的部门国内增值份额(DVA)和国外增值份额(FVA)。研究发现,三国附加值较高的中、高科技产业的DVA均小于FVA。总体而言,这些结果表明,发展中国家需要通过流程和/或功能升级来加强对全球价值链的参与。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators on Remittance Inflows in the Philippines 估计选定的宏观经济指标对菲律宾汇款流入的影响
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-3c
J. P. Rivera, Tereso S. Tullao
Abstract:As economic activities came to a standstill during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Philippines, like many economies across the globe, experienced rising inflation, currency depreciation and fluctuating capital markets. To manage these variables and stabilize the macroeconomy, the central bank resorted to monetary tightening. In the Philippines, a key mechanism that contributes to this stabilizing effect rests on remittances that have been cushioning the economy from the effects of volatilities and uncertainties in the global economy. During economic downturns and reduced capital flows, remittances provide support not only to recipient households but also to the country's financial sector. Using time series analysis, we estimate the response of remittance inflows on impulses from selected macroeconomic variables, namely interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate. A common characteristic shared by the selected indicators is their influence on recipient households' consumption-related decision-making process. These findings warrant the need to redesign major institutional policies to manage remittances in light of their anticipated feedback effect on the economy.
摘要:随着新冠肺炎疫情期间经济活动陷入停滞,菲律宾与全球许多经济体一样,经历了通货膨胀加剧、货币贬值和资本市场波动。为了管理这些变量并稳定宏观经济,央行采取了货币紧缩措施。在菲律宾,促成这种稳定作用的一个关键机制是汇款,汇款一直在缓冲经济免受全球经济波动和不确定性的影响。在经济衰退和资本流动减少期间,汇款不仅为受援家庭提供支持,也为国家金融部门提供支持。利用时间序列分析,我们估计了汇款流入对选定宏观经济变量(即利率、通货膨胀率和汇率)脉冲的响应。选定指标的一个共同特点是它们对受援国家庭消费相关决策过程的影响。这些发现证明,有必要根据汇款对经济的预期反馈影响,重新设计主要的机构政策来管理汇款。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labour Market in Thailand 新冠肺炎疫情对泰国劳动力市场的影响
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-3f
Nattanicha Chairassamee, Oudom Hean
Abstract:This study aims to explore the labour market in Thailand during the COVID-19 era. By using individual data from the National Statistical Office of Thailand, we estimate the probability of a worker becoming unemployed and being temporarily absent from work. The results demonstrate that the pandemic could cause a higher chance of being unemployed for younger workers. However, the chance of being temporarily absent from work increased for older and less-educated workers. Each sector was affected differently by the pandemic. Workers in large firms were more likely to be unemployed, suggesting that the pandemic disproportionately affected large firms, compared to micro, small or medium-sized enterprises.
摘要:本研究旨在探索新冠肺炎时期泰国的劳动力市场。通过使用泰国国家统计局的个人数据,我们估计了工人失业和暂时缺勤的可能性。结果表明,疫情可能会导致年轻工人失业的几率更高。然而,对于年龄较大、受教育程度较低的工人来说,暂时缺勤的机会增加了。每个部门都受到疫情的不同影响。大公司的工人更有可能失业,这表明与微型、小型或中型企业相比,疫情对大公司的影响尤为严重。
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引用次数: 2
How Far Has India Integrated with East Asian Economies? Evidence from International Trade Data 印度与东亚经济体的一体化程度如何?来自国际贸易数据的证据
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-3b
M. Ando, Kenta Yamanouchi, F. Kimura
Abstract:Since the 1990s, East Asia—including Northeast and Southeast Asia—has led the world in adopting a task-by-task international division of labour or international production networks (IPNs), the core of which consists of machinery industries. In this regard, how far has India integrated with East Asia? Using international trade data for comparison from multiple perspectives, this article gives an overview of the current position of India with respect to machinery IPNs and information and communication technology (ICT) services. The article shows that India has not yet participated in machinery IPNs in the East Asian region. We argue that ICT services are a source of strength for the Indian economy, and its competitiveness could be utilized effectively by combining new technologies with traditional industries such as manufacturing. India still has huge untapped opportunities for utilizing the mechanics of a new international division of labour to accelerate economic growth, innovation and poverty alleviation. And economic integration with East Asia could work as a trigger to redirect India's industrialization strategies.
摘要:自20世纪90年代以来,东亚——包括东北亚和东南亚——在世界范围内率先采用了一项又一项任务的国际分工或国际生产网络,其核心是机械工业。在这方面,印度与东亚的一体化程度如何?本文利用国际贸易数据从多个角度进行比较,概述了印度在机械IPN和信息通信技术服务方面的现状。文章显示,印度尚未参与东亚地区的机械IPN。我们认为,信息和通信技术服务是印度经济的力量来源,通过将新技术与制造业等传统产业相结合,可以有效利用其竞争力。在利用新的国际分工机制加速经济增长、创新和减贫方面,印度仍有巨大的未开发机会。与东亚的经济一体化可能会触发印度重新调整工业化战略。
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引用次数: 1
Industrial-Led Economic Development of Cambodia: Implications for Low-Income Developing Countries 柬埔寨工业主导经济发展:对低收入发展中国家的启示
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-2e
J. S. Mah
Abstract:Since the early 1990s, Cambodia has recorded rapid economic growth, which has been accompanied by export expansion, FDI inflows and industrialization. The garment industry has, by far, led the development of the manufacturing sector. Moreover, the government has pursued an industrial policy that emphasizes the role of the labour-intensive manufacturing sector. The country needs to improve the level of its human capital which is essential to achieve sustainable long-term growth driven by technologically advanced industries.
摘要:自20世纪90年代初以来,柬埔寨经济快速增长,伴随着出口扩张、外国直接投资流入和工业化。到目前为止,服装业已经引领了制造业的发展。此外,政府推行的产业政策强调劳动密集型制造业的作用。该国需要提高人力资本水平,这对于实现技术先进产业驱动的可持续长期增长至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
Implementation of Cooperation Chapters in Trade Agreements: Case Linked to the IA-CEPA 贸易协定中合作章节的实施:与IA-CEPA相关的案例
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-2f
N. Gray, Janne Laukkala, C. Findlay
Abstract:Chapters on economic cooperation are increasingly evident in trade agreements. The principles are clear but the mechanics are not. This paper presents a case study of a relevant project linked to the IA-CEPA which focuses on impediments to trade associated with differences in regulatory systems. It explains the procedures adopted and identifies a number of outcomes. Implications are identified for the design of future projects relevant to cooperation chapters, and for the application of concepts discussed elsewhere in the literature that are relevant for reducing impediments to trade in the context of global value chains.
摘要:贸易协定中关于经济合作的章节越来越多。原则很清楚,但机制却不清楚。本文介绍了与IA-CEPA有关的一个相关项目的案例研究,该项目侧重于与监管制度差异相关的贸易障碍。它解释了所采用的程序,并确定了一些结果。确定了与合作章节相关的未来项目设计的影响,以及与在全球价值链背景下减少贸易障碍相关的其他文献中讨论的概念的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Democratic Reforms and Trade: Evidence from the European Union's Generalized System of Preferences for Myanmar 民主改革与贸易:来自欧盟对缅甸普遍优惠制的证据
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-2c
Kiyoyasu Tanaka, Toshihiro Kudo
Abstract:The European Union (EU) re-instated the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for Myanmar from 2013 following the newly established "democratic" government in 2011. This paper highlights a series of democratic reforms in Myanmar as a key driver of the EU's GSP re-instatement. We estimate the causal impact of duty-free access on Myanmar's exports by exploiting the fact that the GSP re-instatement corresponded to a removal of Most-Favoured-Nation tariff rates in the EU market, which was plausibly exogenous for industries in Myanmar. The results show that the GSP re-instatement had a significantly large positive effect on Myanmar's exports, with the most pronounced impact on the volume of garment exports. The EU's GSP played a key role in linking democratic reforms to subsequent trade growth in Myanmar.
摘要:2011年缅甸新成立的“民主”政府成立后,欧盟自2013年起恢复对缅甸的普遍优惠制(GSP)。本文强调缅甸的一系列民主改革是欧盟恢复普惠制的关键驱动力。我们利用恢复普惠制对应于欧盟市场最惠国关税税率的取消这一事实来估计免税准入对缅甸出口的因果影响,这对缅甸的工业来说似乎是外生的。结果表明,恢复普惠制对缅甸出口产生了显著的积极影响,其中对服装出口量的影响最为明显。欧盟的普惠制在将缅甸的民主改革与随后的贸易增长联系起来方面发挥了关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Correlates of Presidential Satisfaction in the Philippines using the Misery Index 利用痛苦指数探索菲律宾总统满意度的相关关系
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1355/ae39-2b
Tristan A. Canare, Ronald U. Mendoza, Jurel K. Yap, Leonardo M. Jaminola
Abstract:Notwithstanding their widespread use in many modern democracies, surveys on leadership satisfaction have generated much debate regarding the possible factors driving public opinion. As a contribution to the literature, this study empirically examines data on Philippine presidential net satisfaction generated by the Social Weather Stations, one of the most well-established survey firms in the archipelagic country. Using Presidential Net Satisfaction data from 1998 to 2019, this study aims to show the links (or lack thereof) between survey results on citizens' satisfaction with leadership on one hand, and objective and subjective indicators of economic well-being on the other. This study finds scant evidence that economic variables such as inflation and unemployment are tied to presidential satisfaction, despite the primacy of the economy in Philippine surveys of key policy issues.
摘要:尽管在许多现代民主国家广泛使用,但关于领导满意度的调查已经产生了许多关于驱动公众舆论的可能因素的争论。作为对文献的贡献,本研究经验性地检查了菲律宾总统网络满意度的数据,这些数据是由社会气象站产生的,社会气象站是群岛国家最成熟的调查公司之一。本研究利用1998年至2019年的总统网络满意度数据,旨在显示公民对领导满意度的调查结果与经济福祉的客观和主观指标之间的联系(或缺乏联系)。这项研究发现,尽管经济在菲律宾关键政策问题的调查中占据首位,但通货膨胀和失业率等经济变量与总统满意度有关的证据很少。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Southeast Asian Economies
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