Identification of faults with seismic hazard potential based on morphotectonic analysis, Kerman city (Southeastern Iran)

The morphotectonic analysis is a useful time-saving and cost-effective method to assess tectonic activity, especially in large regions. In this paper, the morphotectonic study was carried out in Kerman city which is in the southeast of Iran and is a part of the Central Iran structural zone. Despite the occurrence of numerous historical and instrumental earthquakes around Kerman city, there is a gap in earthquake records of this city that has obscured its seismicity status. The aim of this study is to identify active faults and the associated seismic hazard to Kerman city. For this purpose, seven geomorphic indices namely stream length-gradient index (SL), drainage basin asymmetry (Af), hypsometric integral (Hi), ratio of valley-floor width to valley height (Vf), index of drainage basin shape (Bs), index of mountain front sinuosity (Smf) and Transverse Topographic Symmetry Factor (T) were examined for 51 basins of the study area, using digital elevation model (DEM) and geological maps in a GIS environment. Then, two kinds of relative tectonic activity index were calculated for each basin, i.e., Iat and Iat_T, from the combination of these indices. The Iat_T was chosen because its results show better agreement with the structural geology and seismic records of this region. Finally, the study area was divided into three regions according to the Iat_T values. The morphotectonic analyses indicate that the Kuhbanan fault system, especially its southern splays, has the potential to produce serious seismic hazards to Kerman city in the future; the Mahan-Jupar fault-related folds, the southern tip of the Jorjafk fault, the probable fault of Zangi-Abad, the Rafsanjan-Zarand fault system, and Gowk fault are considered as other threats to Kerman city. Furthermore, this study reveals that morphotectonic analysis is a reliable tool to evaluate fault capability and to determine the fault types, and therefore to estimate seismotectonic hazard.