基于年度钢铁产量预测的波兰疫情后钢铁生产情景

IF 1.4 Q4 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Management Systems in Production Engineering Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI:10.2478/mspe-2023-0019
B. Gajdzik
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本文根据2006年至2021年的实际数据,对波兰的钢铁产量进行了预测,并预测到2026年。用于预测的实际数据包括波兰每年的钢铁产量(粗钢),单位为数百万吨。采用基本自适应方法对未来五年的钢铁产量进行了预测。在选择方法时,考虑了所研究现象的发展趋势过程。为了估计所采用的预报方法的可接受程度,并选择最佳预报,计算了视在预报误差(事后)。在工作中计算误差:RMSE均方根误差为2006-2021年预测后均方根误差的平方根;? 作为过期预测的相对误差y*t(2006-2021)的均值,该误差告知了变量yt实际值每单位的绝对误差部分。预测值的优化是基于寻找上述误差之一的最小值,作为优化准则。此外,根据所使用的模型获得的点预测(2022年)的价值与波兰2022年3个季度的钢铁产量以及最后一个季度的预测进行了比较。根据所使用的预测方法获得的预测结果,考虑到允许的预测误差,被认为是确定波兰到2026年钢铁生产情景的基础。为了确定情景,我们使用了预测汇总,因此,根据2022-2026年期间预测的平均值,分别确定了下降趋势和上升趋势的中心预测。中心预测被认为是2022-2026年波兰钢铁生产的基线情景,高于基线预测的预测产量呈上升趋势被认为是乐观情景,而低于中心情景的预测产量呈下降趋势被认为是波兰钢铁工业的悲观情景。
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Post-Pandemic Steel Production Scenarios for Poland Based on Forecasts of Annual Steel Production Volume
Abstract The paper presents the results of forecasts made for the volume of steel production in Poland based on actual data for the period from 2006 to 2021 with forecasting until 2026. The actual data used for the forecasts included annual steel production volumes in Poland (crude steel) in millions of tons. Basic adaptive methods were used to forecast the volume of steel production for the next five years. When selecting the methods, the course of the trend of the studied phenomenon was taken into account. In order to estimate the level of admissibility of the adopted forecasting methods, as well as to select the best forecasts, the errors of apparent forecasts (ex post) were calculated. Errors were calculated in the work: RMSE Root Mean Square Error being the square root of the mean square error of the ex-post forecasts yt for the period 2006-2021; ? as the mean value of the relative error of expired forecasts y*t (2006-2021) – this error informs about the part of the absolute error per unit of the real value of the variable yt. Optimization of the forecast values was based on the search for the minimum value of one of the above-mentioned errors, treated as an optimization criterion. In addition, the value of the point forecast (for 2022) obtained on the basis of the models used was compared with the steel production volume obtained for 3 quarters of 2022 in Poland with the forecast for the last quarter. Forecasting results obtained on the basis of the forecasting methods used, taking into account the permissible forecast errors, were considered as the basis for determining steel production scenarios for Poland until 2026. To determine the scenarios, forecast aggregation was used, and so the central forecasts were determined separately for decreasing trends and for increasing trends, based on the average values of the forecasts obtained for the period 2022-2026. The central forecasts were considered the baseline scenarios for steel production in Poland in 2022-2026 and the projected production volumes above the baseline forecasts with upward trends were considered an optimistic scenario, while the forecasted production volumes below the central scenario for downward trends were considered a pessimistic scenario for the Polish steel industry.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
13.30%
发文量
48
审稿时长
10 weeks
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