规模经济的力量:风电行业案例研究

Gary A. Nowakoski, D. G. Loomis
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文调查了自1980年以来规模经济对美国风电行业成功的影响,包括大型风力涡轮机和风电场的趋势以及装配学习曲线效应。分析利用美国风电行业的平均历史数据来评估过去的业绩,并预测陆上和海上风机行业的未来经济潜力。该分析的目的是作为一个案例研究,以证明选择正确的产品设计平台的重要性,以及扩展技术的能力如何影响产品的成功,在这种情况下,影响整个数十亿美元的行业。从发展的早期阶段起,风电行业就认识到了这一机会,并实现了越来越大的风力涡轮机的商业化,随后利用了通过大型横轴涡轮机和相关风力发电厂生产低成本电力的巨大规模经济。在此期间,发电成本降低了六倍多,与传统化石燃料发电替代品相比具有竞争力。横轴风力涡轮机的物理特性使其能够随着尺寸/铭牌额定值的增加,在电力输出和年能源生产方面不成比例地扩大。
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The Power of Economies of Scale: A Wind Industry Case Study
This paper investigates the impact that economies of scale have had in the success of the wind industry in the United States since 1980 including the trend to larger wind turbines and wind farms and assembly learning curve effects. Analyses utilize average U.S. wind industry historical data to assess past performance and predict the future economic potential for both onshore and offshore wind turbine industries. The intent of this analysis is to serve as a case study to demonstrate the importance of selecting the right product design platform and how the ability to scale a technology can impact the success of products and, in this case, an entire multi-billion dollar industry. From the early stages of development, the wind industry recognized this opportunity and enabled the commercialization of larger and larger wind turbines and subsequently exploited the significant economies of scale possible in producing low-cost electricity via large, horizontal axis turbines and associated wind plants. The cost to produce electricity was reduced more than six-fold over this timeframe and is competitive today with conventional fossil-fuel power generation alternatives. The physics of horizontal axis wind turbines enables them to scale up disproportionately in electric power output and annual energy production with increased size/nameplate rating.
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来源期刊
Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment
Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
25
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