鼓励作弊?俄罗斯新冠肺炎死亡率低报的决定因素——联邦激励措施和亚国家层面的职业关注

IF 4.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE British Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI:10.1017/S0007123422000527
D. Kofanov, V. Kozlov, Alexander Libman, N. Zakharov
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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要本文利用俄罗斯病例调查了威权联邦操纵新冠肺炎统计数据的决定因素和后果。它放弃了将威权政权解释为一个单一的行动者,并承认有必要解释各种官僚和政治参与者的复杂互动,以理解操纵的传播和逻辑。我们的估计策略利用了一个自然实验,在这个实验中,疫情的爆发推迟了全国公投,从而为普京带来了新的总统任期。为了实施重新安排的公投,普京需要亚国家精英制造有利的新冠肺炎统计数据,以说服公众疫情已得到控制。虽然几乎所有区域都参与了数据操纵,但误报的程度却有很大差异。这种变化的三分之一可以解释为地区州长选举的异步时间表,获胜几乎完全取决于联邦当局的支持。
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Encouraged to Cheat? Federal Incentives and Career Concerns at the Sub-national Level as Determinants of Under-Reporting of COVID-19 Mortality in Russia
Abstract This article investigates the determinants and consequences of manipulating COVID-19 statistics in an authoritarian federation using the Russian case. It abandons the interpretation of the authoritarian regime as a unitary actor and acknowledges the need to account for a complex interaction of various bureaucratic and political players to understand the spread and the logic of manipulation. Our estimation strategy takes advantage of a natural experiment where the onset of the pandemic adjourned the national referendum enabling new presidential terms for Putin. To implement the rescheduled referendum, Putin needed sub-national elites to manufacture favourable COVID-19 statistics to convince the public that the pandemic was under control. While virtually all regions engaged in data manipulation, there was a substantial variation in the degree of misreporting. A third of this variation can be explained by an asynchronous schedule of regional governors’ elections, winning which depends almost exclusively on support from the federal authorities.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
4.00%
发文量
64
期刊介绍: The British Journal of Political Science is a broadly based journal aiming to cover developments across a wide range of countries and specialisms. Contributions are drawn from all fields of political science (including political theory, political behaviour, public policy and international relations), and articles from scholars in related disciplines (sociology, social psychology, economics and philosophy) appear frequently. With a reputation established over nearly 40 years of publication, the British Journal of Political Science is widely recognised as one of the premier journals in its field.
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